When will we lose control?
Sam
it someone who was just jogging down the street, to keep fit? Let's
face it, we now live in a society where people no longer run.
Some will see this as a bad development. They point at cardiovascular
problems, and the growing problem of obesity. But isn't it inevitable
that humans stop running, because we now have machines that can do the
heavy work and cars that go faster than any human can run? Is progress
slowly killing us off?
How long ago was it that a computer first defeated a chess world
champion? How many years ago did computers exceed the computational
power of insects? By some comparisons, the biggest mainframes today
command more computational power than small mammals have at their
disposal. How long will it take for machines, equipment and software to
exceed human beings? Given the exponential acceleration in the increase
in performance of computers, a single computer will have more
computational power by 2050 than all human beings combined on Earth.
What year will mark the moment that we will see computers, robots and
AI formally surpass us in terms of intelligence? What about the ability
to assess situations and make judgements? Will our technology surpass
us and will we lose control? Will their be a formal ceremony, to mark a
hand-over of power? If so, what year can we expect this event to take
place? 2050? 2045?
What are the prospects? Will we gradually merge with the technology we
create? Or will we gradually become obsolete and fade away? Do we have
a choice?
I look forward to see more views on this topic, perhaps resulting in
some commitments we can make for the New Year.
Cheers!
Sam