Xi Jinping Is Preparing China for War

[Ubiquitous]

In unprecedented moves, Chinese ruler Xi Jinping replaced the senior
leadership of China's Rocket Force, which is responsible for almost all of
China's 400 or so nuclear warheads. These personnel changes are part of what
is almost certainly the most ominous development of this time. It looks like
Xi is contemplating using or at least threatening to use his most destructive
weapons. In other words, China is planning to go to war.

Xi sacked Rocket Force commander, Li Yuchao, and its political commissar, Xu
Zhongbo. Neither has been seen in public since. Li's deputy, Liu Guangbin,
has also disappeared, along with Zhang Zhenzhong, a former deputy. At about
the same time, Wu Guohua, deputy commander of the Rocket Force, reportedly
took his own life in early July.

Periodically there have been suicides of senior Chinese military officers,
but the simultaneous removal of the top two officers of the Rocket Force is
unprecedented. Also unprecedented are the replacements coming from other
branches. The new Rocket Force commander, Wang Houbin, is from the Chinese
navy, and the new commissar, Xu Xisheng, moved over from the country's air
force.

American observers seem to believe that the sweeping purge was designed to
target widespread corruption in the senior ranks of the People's Liberation
Army. Chris Buckley of the New York Times, for example, called the personnel
changes "an unexplained shake-up that suggests suspicions of graft or other
misconduct."

Yet, this explanation is partial at best. "Almost all the senior generals had
good reputations before their promotion," said a well-placed source speaking
anonymously to Hong Kong's South China Morning Post. Indeed, while the PLA's
senior officer corps is known to be thoroughly corrupt, Xi Jinping has during
his decade-long rule generally tolerated corruption among supporters.

It's less likely that corruption was the reason behind the purge in the
Rocket Force upheaval than a convenient excuse. The more likely explanation
for the purge lies elsewhere: From the beginning of this year, Xi Jinping has
been purging the military of officers opposed to going to war—because he's
preparing for one.

Xi Jinping these days often talks about war, and his regime is fast preparing
for one. The Communist Party is implementing the largest military buildup
since the Second World War. It's simultaneously trying to sanctions-proof the
country, stockpile grain and other commodities, survey America for strikes
and sabotage, and mobilize China's civilians for battle. The military
indoctrination of children begins during the first years of school.

And why would Xi Jinping opt for going into battle? China is failing fast,
and Xi is being blamed. His Maoist-inspired policies, which favor state
enterprises over private and foreign businesses, are making severe problems
even worse. Especially troubling is Xi relentless cutting of China's links
with other countries.

"China is in trouble," said Biden correctly last week at a political event in
Utah. Xi's only way out is to rally the Chinese people with an external
crisis.

Chinese doctrine is to threaten the use of nuclear weapons to prevent the
United States and others from coming to the aid of Taiwan or other targets.
During Xi's rule, Beijing has periodically made unprovoked threats to kill
Americans by the hundreds of millions and, beginning in 2021, Japanese and
Australians as well. Moreover, China has also warned it will nuke Taiwan, the
self-governing island that Beijing considers its 34th province.

In short, Xi needs obedient Rocket Force officers to execute orders to launch
nuclear weapons, especially if the initial stages of a war do not go well for
Chinese attackers. As Richard Fisher of the International Assessment and
Strategy Center told me, "At a time when Xi is preparing for war, his changes
in the PLA high command reflect his demand for senior officers who will obey
war commands."

That so many have been purged reflects disobedience in the ranks expressed as
a reluctance to go to war. The regime handed down a death sentence this year
to former Air Force General Liu Yazhou due to his continued opposition to an
invasion of Taiwan, and he is not alone. "The image that Xi Jinping is firmly
in command of the Communist Party is belied by increasing evidence of
instability in the ranks of China's military leadership," said Charles Burton
of the Ottawa-based Macdonald-Laurier Institute. "The extraordinary purge of
both the commander and political commissar of the Rocket Force suggests there
is serious discontent within China's military with Xi Jinping."

Burton, a former Canadian diplomat posted in Beijing, points to Xi's failing
domestic and foreign policies, especially the "cratering economy." "They have
got some problems," said President Joe Biden about China earlier this month.
"That's not good, because when bad folks have problems, they do bad things."

Bad things like starting wars.

It is not clear that Xi has succeeded in taming the People's Liberation Army.
"Whether the Chinese military will remain loyal to Xi if he orders an
invasion of Taiwan, which could well fail disastrously for China, is now very
much in question," says Burton.

There is, however, one thing we know: China is "a ticking time bomb," as
Biden said. And now the world has to wonder whether that device is a nuke.

--
Let's go Brandon!