Global optimal portfolio for carbon dioxide removal according to Climeworks

[Greg Rau]

https://climeworks.com/uploads/documents/global-optimal-portfolio.pdf

"Notably, between 2025 and 2040, nature-based solutions9 are modeled to increase from 10 Mt to nearly 0.7 Gt CDR annually, fully utilizing their wide-spread availability and established effectiveness within ecological boundaries. Simultaneously, initial installations of BECCS, EW, and DACS are forecasted to begin to scale up. By 2040, these engi- neered methods need to provide approximately 0.3 Gt CO2 of removal capacity—while this would still be smaller in scale than nature-based approaches, it’s a crucial mile- stone to unlock future growth.

Finally, between 2040 and 2050, we project land-based ceilings will be met, driven by factors such as food security, cultural land rights, and biodiversity, and the portfolio shifts decisively toward engineered CDR. Methods such as DACS and BECCS will need to ramp up dramatically, filling the gap left by saturated natural sinks. By mid-century, engineered approaches need to account for over 70 percent of total carbon removals, with limited remaining nature-based efforts focused on removing shorter-residence greenhouse gases like methane and biodiversity enhancement."

GR- Translation: Let's inflate the importance of  DAC and BECCS by ignoring 70% of the Earth's surface, half of the current, natural CDR (10 Gt/year), and nearly 90% of the existing C storage on the Earths surface.