Response of precipitation extremes in South China to CO2 removal forcing

[Geoengineering News]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674283425001680

Authors: Liqin Yue, Lihong Wang, Ting Yang

14 November 2025

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100748

Abstract

The reversibility of precipitation and extreme precipitation under the CO2 removal scenario is critical for climate mitigation and adaptation. This investigation employs CMIP6 models to quantify responses of extreme precipitation indices in South China under an idealized carbon dioxide removal (CDR) scenario. Results reveal that restoring CO2 concentrations to pre-industrial levels increases the extremeness of precipitation compared with historical benchmarks. Spatial pattern disparities between implementation phases indicate an increase in both total and extreme precipitation across South China during CDR deployment. Mechanistic analysis identifies distinct dynamical controls: humidity-driven precipitation increases are primarily governed by thermodynamic processes through vapor advection, supplemented secondarily by convergence–divergence effects. Similarly, advective enhancements associated with dynamic processes would further lead to the occurrence of precipitation and extreme precipitation. This study highlights that the implementation of CDR would have a limited effect on the mitigation of extreme precipitation in South China, and provides suggestions and references for risk assessment and climate adaptation.

Source: ScienceDirect