Thermodynamic Geoengineering Is a No-Regrets Climate Strategy

[jim....@gwmitigation.com]

Thermodynamic Geoengineering Is a No-Regrets Climate Strategy

Because it works even if climate models are wrong

Climate policy has a credibility problem.

Too many proposed solutions work only if the most extreme climate projections prove accurate, costs fall on schedule, politics cooperate, and the public accepts years of sacrifice in exchange for benefits that arrive decades later. That is not a recipe for durable policy.

A no-regrets climate strategy is different. It delivers value even if climate risks prove smaller than expected. It improves economic efficiency, resilience, and human welfare, regardless of which model scenario ultimately proves closest to reality.

By that standard, Thermodynamic Geoengineering (TG) qualifies as a no-regrets strategy—not because it is radical, but because it is grounded in the first principles of thermodynamics and in real economic outputs.

Climate Change Is a Heat Problem First

At its core, climate change is not primarily a carbon problem. It is a problem of heat accumulation.

Over 90 percent of the excess energy trapped by greenhouse gases has gone into the oceans. This is not speculation. It is measured directly through ocean heat content. The oceans are Earth’s dominant heat reservoir, with a heat capacity so large that surface warming is merely a symptom of a much deeper imbalance.

Most climate strategies aim to slow future warming by reducing emissions. That is necessary—but it does nothing to address the enormous stock of heat already stored in the ocean, which will continue to influence sea level, storms, ecosystems, and weather for centuries.

TG begins where the physics says the problem lies: in the ocean’s heat budget.

What TG Does—In Plain Terms

Thermodynamic Geoengineering uses large-scale ocean heat engines to convert low-grade ocean heat into useful work—electricity, fuels, or industrial energy—while simultaneously cooling surface waters.

This is not geoengineering in the speculative sense of atmospheric manipulation or solar radiation management. TG does not alter sunlight, chemistry, or planetary albedo. It applies the same principle used in every thermal power plant, refrigerator, and data-center cooling system: move heat from where it is harmful to where it can do useful work.

• The result is a system that:
• Produces energy
• Reduces local and cumulative ocean heat content
• Operates continuously, not intermittently
• Does not depend on fuel extraction

Those characteristics matter—because they determine whether the system has value even outside a climate emergency.

Why TG Is “No Regrets”

1. It Produces Valuable Energy Regardless of Climate Outcomes

Even if climate sensitivity were lower than expected, the oceans would still hold an extraordinary surplus of thermal energy. TG converts part of that surplus into usable power.

Energy produced by TG displaces other energy sources—not because of regulation or subsidies, but because it is physically available, continuous, and scalable. Any system that delivers large quantities of firm energy has intrinsic economic value, independent of climate goals.

If climate damage worsens, TG helps mitigate it. If it does not, TG still produces the energy the world needs.

That is the definition of no regrets.

2. It Reduces Risk Rather Than Betting on Forecasts

Most climate strategies rely on precise projections of temperature rise, damage functions, and future technology costs. TG does not.

• Reducing heat from the ocean reduces tail risk across all scenarios. Cooler surface waters mean:
• Lower potential for storm intensification
• Reduced thermal expansion of seawater
• Less stress on marine ecosystems

These benefits accrue even if warming slows or stabilizes. Risk reduction that does not require predictive accuracy is economically superior to policies that depend on it.

3. It Aligns With Thermodynamics, Not Politics

Every energy system ultimately converts energy into waste heat. Fossil fuels, nuclear power, data centers, and renewables all add heat to the environment at the end of their use cycle.

TG is unusual because it harvests heat that is already in the system rather than introducing new energy. From a thermodynamic standpoint, this makes it one of the few energy strategies that can plausibly scale without worsening the heat problem it is meant to solve.

This alignment with physical law makes TG robust against political cycles. Physics does not repeal itself every four years.

4. It Avoids the Moral Hazard Trap

Some critics fear that any climate intervention could reduce pressure to cut emissions. TG avoids this trap because it does not justify continued heat loading.

Unlike schemes that mask warming without addressing the energy imbalance, TG directly reduces stored heat while producing work. It complements decarbonization rather than substituting for it.

• In practical terms, TG:
• Makes electrification easier by expanding the firm energy supply
• Reduces adaptation costs by moderating extremes
• Buys time without locking in dependence

That combination strengthens, rather than weakens, long-term climate discipline.

5. It Scales With Need, Not Ideology

A no-regrets strategy must scale gracefully—from modest deployment to global significance—without requiring a binary decision.

TG platforms can be deployed incrementally. Early units generate energy and operational data. Later units increase both heat removal and economic output. If deployment pauses, the systems already built continue to generate value.

There is no cliff edge, no point of no return, and no need for immediate planetary coordination to justify the first steps.

Compare This to High-Regret Climate Bets

Contrast TG with strategies that:

•  Rely on permanent carbon storage with an unresolved leakage risk
• Require massive land-use tradeoffs
• Depend on unproven negative-emissions scaling
• Deliver benefits only after decades

Those approaches may still be necessary—but they are not no-regrets. They require faith in long timelines, stable governance, and flawless execution.

TG requires none of that. It works because heat flows downhill, and work can be extracted from that flow.

The Deeper Point

Climate policy has been trapped in a false choice between mitigation and adaptation, between preventing future harm and coping with current damage.

Thermodynamic Geoengineering collapses that distinction.

It mitigates by reducing stored heat.
It adapts by lessening climate impacts.
It pays for itself by generating energy.

If climate change turns out to be worse than expected, TG becomes essential.
If it turns out to be less severe, TG remains useful.

That is what “no regrets” means.

Conclusion

The strongest climate strategies are not those that sound the most urgent—but those that remain rational in the face of uncertainty.

Thermodynamic Geoengineering does not ask society to gamble on forecasts, sacrifice prosperity, or wait generations for a payoff. It asks only that we apply well-understood physical principles to the planet's largest heat reservoir.

In a world short on certainty and long on risk, that is not radical.

It is simply prudent.

 

 

[Greg Rau]

CDR angle?

Greg

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Greg H. Rau, Ph.D.

Senior Research Scientist
Institute of Marine Sciences
Univer. California, Santa Cruz
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Greg_Rau
Co-founder and manager, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Google group
Co-founder and Senior Scientist, Planetary Technologies, Inc.
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