Feasible geological carbon dioxide storage projections require updated cost and geological potential assumptions

[Geoengineering News]

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-03901-5

Authors: Iain de Jonge-Anderson, Gareth Johnson, Anne Merfort, Jessica Strefler, Catrin Harris & Jennifer J. Roberts 

10 August 2026

Abstract

Integrated Assessment Models project large-scale deployment of carbon dioxide geological storage across many climate change mitigation pathways. However, the feasibility of these projections - particularly concerning near-term scale-up rates - has been criticised. Here, we examine six leading detailed-process Integrated Assessment Models to explicate how carbon dioxide geological storage constraints have improved since the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, including how feasible deployment rates are defined. We find these Integrated Assessment Models limit carbon dioxide geological storage deployment by drawing on datasets defining annual storage rates, storage costs, and geological storage potential. However, while recent updates have focused on annual storage rates, cost and storage potential assumptions remain rooted in outdated literature. Our findings highlight an urgent need for the carbon dioxide geological storage community to provide updated and Integrated Assessment Model-ready datasets to improve understanding of and confidence in the role of carbon dioxide geological storage in climate change mitigation pathways. Our work also contributes to ensuring the assumptions embedded in Integrated Assessment Model projections remain transparent.

Source: Communications Earth & Environment