Barriers and enablers of two development pathways for Direct Air Capture

[Geoengineering News]

https://co2-chemistry.eu/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/BrazzolaNicoletta_Abstract.pdf 

Authors 

Nicoletta Brazzola, Christian Moretti, Katrin Sievert, Anthony Patt, and Johan Lilliestam

Abstract  

Carbon dioxide removal is likely to be unavoidable to achieve ambitious climate goals. Deploying Direct Air Capture (DAC) might be necessary, in the long-term, to avoid conflicts for land-surface, biomass, and water usage 1–6. Currently, only a handful of commercial-scale DAC plants exist, with costs ranging from at least 600 to 1000 USD/tCO2 removed 7–9. To reduce theses costs through technological learning and economies of scale10, governments will need to adopt policies encouraging the development and deployment of DAC plants. Using the multi-level perspective on technological transition as theoretical framework11,12, we investigate two possible development pathways for DAC: its explicit deployment for carbon removal (the DAC Direct pathway), or its deployment for CO2 utilization e.g., for synthetic fuels, chemicals, and plastics (the DAC Spillover pathway). In particular, we assess the differences between these pathways in terms of what they require to deploy the first gigaton of air-captured CO2. We thereby identify barriers and opportunities for the creation of new socio-technical regimes along three dimensions: 

(1) technology, 

(2) material factors and infrastructure, and 

(3) immaterial factors and institutions.  

Our results concerning the different needs along the two development pathways are summarized in Figure 1. We find that the use of DAC-based CO2 fuels and chemicals in the Spillover pathway requires a more complex technological architecture, more resources, and larger investments than simply storing the captured CO2 underground. However, the institutional framework needed to govern the production of CO2-based fuels and chemicals largely overlaps with the existing set-up, highlighting the lower societal barriers to their adoption. The Direct pathway, conversely, relies on less energy and capital, yet it faces the challenge of having to set up a whole new industry with new markets, user practices, and socio-cultural meanings.  

Finally, we identify policy mixes to overcome the barriers in the short-term development of DAC-based CO2 products. The lack of existing institutions to enable DACCS requires a series of substantive policies to enable the Direct pathway, notably the creation of new markets, of legal and regulatory structures to enable underground storage, and of international governance agreements. The Spillover pathway is, on the opposite, largely aligned with existing institutional infrastructures, and its policies consist of incentives to facilitate its access to these institutions.  

We conclude that initially supporting spillover-technologies i.e., CO2-based fuels and chemicals, could face less barriers than directly scaling up DACCS while having co-benefits for the decarbonization of different sectors of the economy. Yet, due to this pathway’s higher costs and energy use, this is only true as long as volumes of CO2-based fuels and chemicals are small. On the longer-term, however, as the institutional framework enabling carbon removal starts materializing, DACCS-supporting policies could become more politically feasible. Yet, since the advantages of each pathway are counterbalanced by trade-offs that might affect the local deployment differently, the suitability of each pathway is heavily context dependent. 

[Albert Bates]

While the abstract leaves the method and findings somewhat opaque, I am struck by the energy requirements for the two pathways. To draw down 1 GtCO2 requires 200 TW in the capture and store pathway and >80,000 TW in the capture and use pathway. How many power plants is that? Does anyone know?

[Clive Elsworth]

Thanks Albert.

 

We see that the ‘DAC Emperor’ wears no clothes.

 

I.e. DAC is just a money-making ruse for some, and a distraction for everyone else who’s trying to prevent disaster.

 

And even if DAC could be done for 3-4 orders of magnitude less energy, albedo enhancement is still needed anyway to avoid those looming catastrophic cascading tipping points.

 

Clive

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[Albert Bates]

If we had to remove 40 GtCO2 annually by DAC with wind power, we would likely need 3 million large generators. That is not unthinkable (consider Lend Lease during WWII), but it is a large commitment with no immediate ROI. With renewables replacing fossil in all aspects, demand for electricity will be highly competitive.

Albert

[Jim Baird]

80,000 TW is 196 times the 409 TW Resplandy et al 2019 estimated was the heat of global warming. It is 4000 times the 20TW of primary energy consumed annually.

 

From: 'Albert Bates' via Carbon Dioxide Removal
Sent: March 13, 2023 7:25 AM
To: Carbon Dioxide Removal <CarbonDiox...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: [CDR] Re: Barriers and enablers of two development pathways for Direct Air Capture

 

While the abstract leaves the method and findings somewhat opaque, I am struck by the energy requirements for the two pathways. To draw down 1 GtCO2 requires 200 TW in the capture and store pathway and >80,000 TW in the capture and use pathway. How many power plants is that? Does anyone know?

--

[Nucleation Capital]

If it takes 200 TW of power to capture and store 1 Gt of CO2, what does this equate to on a per MW basis to the actual cost of burning coal, oil or gas, given the CO2 emissions associated with that generation?  Has anyone done this calculation?    

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/CarbonDioxideRemoval/002501d955df%243d42b470%24b7c81d50%24%40gwmitigation.com.

[Jim Baird]

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/CarbonDioxideRemoval/077BE66C-C9E4-4DF5-AC9F-E8479B18492A%40gmail.com.

[Chris Van Arsdale]

I am not sure where you are all getting these TW numbers.

~1Gt-CO2/year at ~250kJ/mol is about 180GW. Of which (unless you are CE), most of that is low-grade thermal. 180GW of low grade thermal, maybe COP of 3, is about 60-100GW net input electricity (with fans and compression, etc). At ~$0.025/kWh for solar (assuming some diurnal thermal storage), ~$20B/yr marginal cost.

Since someone asked. Diesel generates about 2.7kg/L of CO2, so removing 1e12kg of CO2 from the atmosphere is roughly the equivalent of 1e11 gallons of diesel, or about $250-300B worth of diesel at today's wholesale rates.

... So, idealized DAC marginal cost adds about 10% to the cost of fuel.

Of course, in reality, idealized models need a number of haircuts. Getting DAC down to $20/ton seems... unlikely. But the rest of that cost is mostly amortized capex, not these crazy 100TW numbers.

- Chris

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/CarbonDioxideRemoval/007a01d955e8%241d3841a0%2457a8c4e0%24%40gwmitigation.com.

[Jim Baird]

80,000 TWh is directly from the paper for Direct Air Capture for Usage. Which is about half of all of the primary energy being used annually.

 

An early comment quoted this as 80,000 TW incorrectly. 80,000 TW would be 8760 times more TWh.

[Nucleation Capital]

Chris,

This is helpful. Am I correct in understanding that you’re estimating that the costs of burning CO2 emitting fuels (coal or gas), would need to increase by 10% to cover the cost of DAC of its emissions at $20/ton, not counting the cost of CO2 storage, assuming a low energy cost (~$25 MWh) in what would be an ideal scenario?

More realistically, DAC plus storage/ton is anywhere from $250 on up to thousands. This means that the true costs of coal or gas at this time are easily double or triple what we’re currently paying, if they were obliged to store their waste.  

If anyone has done more exacting analysis on this, I’d love to see it.

Valerie

Begin forwarded message:

From: Chris Van Arsdale <cvana...@google.com>

Subject: Re: [CDR] Barriers and enablers of two development pathways for Direct Air Capture

Date: March 13, 2023 at 1:31:12 PM PDT

To: Jim Baird <jim....@gwmitigation.com>

[Jim Baird]

The IMF says the true cost of coal and gas etc is $5.9 trillion over and above the $10 trillion that was paid for energy in 2022.

 

Who votes for layering on more cost for CDR when you can get 4.3Gt removal from the atmosphere for free, at half the historical cost of $5 trillion for energy since 1970 simply by cooling the surface with Thermodynamic Geoengineering?  

[Clive Elsworth]

Jim and All

 

Thank you, yes that caught me out. 200 TWh is very different to 200 TW.

 

I now make that total renewables deployment needing to be about doubled. That’s not so bad and quite a surprise to me, but still a great deal of extra mining and processing of ores, chopping up of birds, insects, and desecration of nature.

 

For CDR I would personally prefer nature’s ancient solution. Since the beginning the ocean has been Earth’s primary carbon sink, as seen from the 100s of millions of gigatons of sedimentary and metamorphic carbonate rock and organic carbon deposits in the continents.

 

Phytoplankton raise pH at the ocean surface, and if a way can be found to sink organic carbon and carbonate shells quickly to the seabed it doesn’t get a chance to oxidize much on the way down, i.e. it doesn’t then re-acidify the ocean. Our proposal to sink material quickly is by providing non-toxic floating habitat that mimics pumice. The difference is instead of sinking after a few months like pumice it would remain floating for decades. All kinds of sea creatures and seaweed would grow, detach and then sink quickly. 10 cm diameter pieces would pose no hazard to shipping. The detached lifeforms would pile up in anoxic sediments. There, organic carbon gets gradually transformed by sulfate reducing microbes to solid refractory organic carbon, i.e. permanently sequestered. That sulfate reduction process releases alkalinity and nutrients. We see the whole process as also regenerating (and generating new) biodiverse ocean ecosystems. Yes, there would be changes to bottom waters in the areas affected. But there would be a lot of new life there too.

 

BTW The recent 30% ocean protection announcement was a delight for us to see.

 

To your point about thermodynamic geoengineering to cool the ocean surface, phytoplankton release the ‘smell of the sea’ which (after oxidation in the air) nucleates cooling marine clouds. Cooling the ocean surface reduces (or reverses) today’s stratification, increasing nutrient flow from deeper waters. Ocean protection will also enable ecosystems to recover, enabling recovery of the diurnal (and other) vertical migration that also brings up nutrients. Result (eventually, if scaled) - slower melting of polar glacier from beneath, and a reversal of extreme weather events.

 

Clive

 

From: carbondiox...@googlegroups.com <carbondiox...@googlegroups.com> On Behalf Of Jim Baird

Sent: 13 March 2023 20:46
To: 'Chris Van Arsdale' <cvana...@google.com>

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/CarbonDioxideRemoval/00ad01d955ec%24e25e8b70%24a71ba250%24%40gwmitigation.com.

[Chris Van Arsdale]

"sink organic carbon" probably does not do what you want. Best case, you lose carbon at the redfield ratio and it's not a net win. Worse case, you precipitate carbonate. Removing Ca++ from the surface ocean is a net loss (2 moles of alkalinity for every C you take down, leading to CO2 outgassing at the surface when that Ca++ goes away).

- Chris

[Bruce Melton -- Austin, Texas]

The $600 to $1,000 a ton from that white paper by Brazzola et al., looks to be hangover noise from the 2011 APS study and MIT's House et al., also in 2011. I think these are both pretty much disproved now, at least APS 2011, as they used some the heat in the process backwards, increasing energy requirements. Peter Eisenberger called this out in a comment to the APS study in PNAS.  This $600 to $1,000 science is also responsible for claims that water use of air capture is prohibitive.

Realff and Eisenberger, Flawed analysis of the possibility of air capture, June 19, 2012.

http://sequestration.mit.edu/pdf/2012_PNAS_StorageCapacity_LetterToEditor.pdf

Another thing about feasibility of air capture and excess resource consumption is that literally, $100s of billions have been committed in the last year or two for hundreds of million ton per year carbon capture facilities both flue and air. Would industry be betting on tech that was infeasible?

I have sent this industrialization list below before, but some may have missed it, and it keeps growing.

Steep trails,

B

Ongoing Industrialization of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR), Direct Air Capture (DAC) and Sequestration ... Industrialize

Industry seems to think there is money here, lots of it. Industrialization is moving forward fast indicating that these processes are revenue generating programs.

Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) Processes - New or Mature? ... We have been using industrial processes to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere since 1907 when the recyclable lime/potash process was developed and widely used in World War II to remove CO2 from submarines to keep sailors safe from carbon dioxide poisoning, since the 1930s with cryogenic distillation, and also since the 1930s with amine chemicals (ammonia–based) where amines are now one of the most important chemicals in industry.

December 3, 2022, NGK CO2 air capture – 1) Ceramic substrate and 2) Freezing with Natural Gas excess cold from compressor stations… 1) Ceramic substrate like automobile catalytic converters, unspecified capture agent, normal liberation heating, 2) and cold from natural gas compression to "liquefied" before transmissionto freeze the CO2 out of the ab-adsorbant.
Shimizu, New technology to capture CO2 from air set for Japan trials, Nikkei Financial,November 28, 2022.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Environment/Climate-Change/New-technology-to-capture-CO2-from-air-set-for-Japan-trials

November 26, 2022, One Million Tons Per Yera "Hub" in Louisiana by 2030... "Direct air capture (DAC) company Climeworks and Louisiana-based Gulf Coast Sequestration (GCS) signed a memorandum of understanding on Nov. 21 to develop the first DAC hub on the Gulf Coast in Louisiana. The project aims to enable the permanent removal of one million tons of CO2 from the atmosphere by the end of the decade, with the potential to expand to multi-million-ton capacity in future years."
Doneva, Climeworks And Gulf Coast Sequestration Partner To Launch Direct Air Capture Hub On The Gulf Coast In Louisiana, Carbon Herald, November 22, 2022.
https://carbonherald.com/climeworks-and-gulf-coast-sequestration-partner-to-launch-direct-air-capture-hub-on-the-gulf-coast-in-louisiana/

November 20, 2022, $882 million in carbon capture funding, 2^nd quarter 2022…
https://www.protocol.com/bulletins/carbon-capture-venture-capital-investment

September 8, 2022 - Project Bison, Wyoming, 5 million tons per year by 2030, a Direct Air Capture (DAC) project of Frontier Carbon Solutions and CarbonCapture, Inc. … "A Los Angeles-based company kicked off on Thursday what it said will be the first large-scale direct air capture (DAC) project to capture and store 5 million tons of carbon dioxide per year by 2030, benefiting from new U.S. government incentives." Stripe, Alphabet, Shopify, Meta, McKinsey
CarbonCapture Inc. Announces Five Megaton Direct Air Capture and Storage Project in Wyoming…
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220908005446/en/CarbonCapture-Inc.-Announces-Five-Megaton-Direct-Air-Capture-and-Storage-Project-in-Wyoming
CarbonCapture, Inc, modular… "A generalized DAC platform for solid sorbents that allows for incremental upgrades, minimizes obsolescence, and speeds up development cycles." Sorbents include amines, MOFs (metal-organic framework), zeolites and more.
https://www.carboncapture.com/
EXCLUSIVE New law helps U.S. firm launch Wyoming direct air carbon capture project…
https://www.reuters.com/markets/carbon/exclusive-new-law-helps-us-firm-launch-wyoming-direct-air-carbon-capture-project-2022-09-08/

CarbonClean…
CycloneCC – worlds smallest carbon capture tech…
https://www.carbonclean.com/industrial-carbon-capture-technology?hsCtaTracking=4d330ef7-b427-4507-ba9c-5ce011059864%7C2a75a2d9-05f6-49ca-bd6f-a63edf949004
Ebook…
https://www.carbonclean.com/industrial-carbon-capture-technology?hsCtaTracking=4d330ef7-b427-4507-ba9c-5ce011059864%7C2a75a2d9-05f6-49ca-bd6f-a63edf949004

Carbon Xprize … 1133 teams
https://illuminem.com/energyvoices/b02e09de-a3ad-41dd-8811-0bf7c7cc36cb

Carbon Engineering

November 9, 2022, 20% increase in first plant cost due to inflation, number of proposed plants up from 70 to 100 because of IRA… "Government incentives and passage of the Inflation Reduction Act allow it to plan 100 DAC facilities by 2035, from 70 before, Hollub said. Land for half of them has been secured."
Valle and Soni, Occidental's project to capture CO2 takes a hit from inflation, Rueters, November 9, 2022.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/occidental-raises-costs-direct-air-capture-project-due-inflation-2022-11-09/

October 31, 2022, 1PointFive, 30 million tons per year, no EOR, 20 percent improvement in capture efficiency … Carbon Engineering begins work on supporting multi-million tonne Direct Air Capture facilities in Kleberg County, Texas (King Ranch). The site is expected to provide access for the potential construction of multiple DAC facilities that would be capable of collectively removing up to 30 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere annually for dedicated sequestration.
Carbon Engineering Press Release - https://carbonengineering.com/news-updates/multi-million-tonne-south-texas/

 

August 25, 2022 Occidental, OnePointFive, Carbon Engineering, Permian Basin – Construction update, PH1 500,000 tons/yr
https://carbonengineering.com/news-updates/construction-direct-air-capture-texas/

06/07/22 Occidental 1PointeFive…
An oil-company spinoff wants to help build 70 direct air capture plants by 2035
https://www.fastcompany.com/90758711/an-oil-company-spinoff-wants-to-help-build-70-direct-air-capture-plants-by-2035?partner=rss&utm_campaign=rss+fastcompany&utm_content=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=rss

DAC1, IEA on Carbon Engineering , Oxy and The Permian facility… "In Q1 2021, OLCV awarded the Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) phase to global professional services provider Worley. The FEED phase of DAC 1 is focused on a first capture train with a planned capture capacity of 0.5 MtCO2/year; the total capacity of the project will subsequently increase to 1.0 MtCO2/year. The project is supported by a multi-million dollar investment from United Airlines, and, upon approvals, two key policies: California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard and the United States’ 45Q tax credit."
https://www.iea.org/reports/ccus-around-the-world/dac-1

1PointFive...
https://www.1pointfive.com/

July 12, 2022, Drax, North Yorkshire UK $2 billion British pounds for 8 million tons per year through BECCS (forest pellets)… First unit operational in 2024. "The company plans to invest £2bn in the 2020s in its plans to develop two bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) units."
https://www.drax.com/press_release/drax-submits-plans-to-build-worlds-largest-carbon-capture-and-storage-project/

September 21, 2022, Drax commits to 12 million tons Co2 per year…  "Drax aims to deliver 12 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide removals per year using BECCS by 2030 and this deal will relate to the CDRs produced from Drax’s North American BECCS facilities."
https://www.drax.com/press_release/worlds-biggest-carbon-removals-deal-announced-at-new-york-climate-week/

 

May 10, 2022, Bayou Bend Project - Talos, Carbonvert Bring Chevron Aboard to Propel CCUS Project Offshore Texas…  225-275 million metric tons of carbon dioxide from the shallow waters near Beaumont and Port Arthur.
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/talos-carbonvert-bring-chevron-aboard-to-propel-ccus-project-offshore-texas/
 

March 23, 2022 - Occidental and Carbon Engineering in the Permian…  good new numbers and 70 Air capture hubs, three operational by 2025.
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/occidental-to-spend-5-of-2022-capital-on-permian-carbon-removal-plant-69498606

Occidental Chemicals and Carbon, MIT -
Temple, Why the world’s biggest CO2-sucking plant would be used to … err, dig up more oil? And how it might even be a good thing. MIT Technology Review, May 27, 2019
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/613579/why-the-worlds-biggest-cosub2-sub-sucking-plant-would-be-used-to-err-dig-up-more-oil/

Oxy Net-Zero Goal, December 3, 2020 -
https://digital.olivesoftware.com/olive/ODN/HoustonChronicle/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=HHC%2F2020%2F12%2F03&entity=Ar01500&sk=EFF8B3CA&mode=text#=undefined

 

July 25, 2022 –Air Products Announces Additional "Third by ‘30" CO2 Emissions Reduction Goal, Commitment to Net Zero by 2050, and Increase in New Capital for Energy Transition to $15 Billion… Air products claims they will be the world's largest when completed. $15 billion total investment 2022 includes 30 percent reduction in scope 3 emissions by 2030, in addition to Scope1 and 2 reductions.
https://www.airproducts.com/news-center/2022/07/0725-air-products-announces-additional-sustainability-commitments

October 14, 2021 – Air Products, 5 Million tons per year… Louisiana: $4.5 Billion, 5 million tons per year, online in 2026 from Blue Hydrogen reformation out of natural gas. - https://www.airproducts.com/news-center/2022/07/0725-air-products-announces-additional-sustainability-commitments
https://www.airproducts.com/campaigns/la-blue-hydrogen-project

HOUSTON, Feb. 22, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- 1PointFive announced today its selection of Worley for the Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) phase of its first direct air capture (DAC) facility in the U.S. Permian Basin—DAC 1.
https://www.prnewswire.com/in/news-releases/1pointfive-selects-worley-for-feed-on-milestone-direct-air-capture-facility-837514192.html

Carbon Engineering Funders, March 21, 2019 – Occidental Chemicals, Bill Gates, Murray Edwards, BHP, Chevron Technology Ventures, Oxy Low Carbon Ventures, LLC, Bethel Lands Corporation Ltd, Carbon Order, First Round Capital, Lowercase Capital, Rusheen Capital Management, LLC, Starlight Ventures, Thomvest Asset Management and others.
https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2019/03/21/1758562/0/en/Carbon-Engineering-concludes-USD-68-million-private-investment-round-and-proceeds-with-commercialization-of-carbon-dioxide-removal-technology.html#:~:text=CE's%20investors%20now%20include%3A%20Bill,an%20affiliate%20of%20Peter%20J.

Carbon Engineering and Storegga, (June 23, 2021) 500,000 to 1,000,000 tons per year in Scotland, operational in 2026…
https://carbonengineering.com/news-updates/uks-first-large-scale-dac-facility/

Exxon Mobile and Global Thermostat, September 21, 2020 - "Expanded their joint development agreement following 12 months of technical evaluation… Global Thermostat's 'breakthrough technology' using amines… ExxonMobil has more than 30 years of experience in CCS technology and was the first company to capture more than 120 million tonnes of CO2… $3 billion to advance plans for over 20 new CCS opportunities: U.S. Gulf Coast, Wyoming, Netherlands, Belgium, Scotland, Singapore, Qatar ."
Press Release - https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/News/Newsroom/News-releases/2020/0921_ExxonMobil-expands-agreement-with-Global-Thermostat-re-direct-air-capture-technology
MIT Technology Review, June 28, 2019 - https://www.technologyreview.com/f/613901/another-major-oil-company-tiptoes-into-the-carbon-removal-space/

University of Arizona (Klaus Lackner) and Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) April 29, 2019 -https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-climatechange-carboncapture/do-mechanical-trees-offer-the-cure-for-climate-change-idUSKCN1S52CG

University of Arizona (Klaus Lackner) Carbon Collect (formerly Silocn Kingdom) April 15, 2022 - April 15, 2022 - Carbon Collect’s MechanicalTree, based on the research of ASU engineer Klaus Lackner, will collect carbon from the atmosphere and help fight climate change - First 'MechanicalTree' installed on ASU’s Tempe campus.
https://news.asu.edu/20220415-solutions-first-mechanicaltree-installed-asu-carbon-collect-tempe
Carbon Collect - https://mechanicaltrees.com/

Blue Planet and Mitsubishi
September 23, 2020 - Mitsubishi is working to develop technology for locking CO2 in concrete as part of a separate project with Japanese construction group Kajima and Hiroshima-based utility Chugoku Electric Power
 https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Environment/US-startup-s-carbon-capture-concrete-wins-Mitsubishi-s-backing

Blue Planet and Chevron
Houston, Texas, January 14, 2021 — Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) today announced a Series C investment in San Jose-based Blue Planet Systems Corporation (“Blue Planet”), a startup that manufactures and develops carbonate aggregates and carbon capture technology intended to reduce the carbon intensity of industrial operations.
https://www.chevron.com/stories/chevron-invests-in-carbon-capture-and-utilization-startup

ExxonMobil, February 1, 2021… $3 Billion, mostly on 20 direct air capture projects. "ExxonMobil has more than 30 years of experience in CCS technology and was the first company to capture more than 120 million tonnes of CO2, which is equivalent to the emissions of more than 25 million cars for one year. The company has an equity share in about one-fifth of global CO2 capture capacity and has captured approximately 40 percent of all the captured anthropogenic CO2 in the world."
https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/News/Newsroom/News-releases/2021/0201_ExxonMobil-Low-Carbon-Solutions-to-commercialize-emission-reduction-technology

Exxon Labarge, Wyoming,  expands to 8 million tons per year from 6 to 7 million tons, May 5, 2022…
ExxonMobil to Expand Carbon Capture and Storage at LaBarge, Wyoming, Facility
https://www.yahoo.com/now/exxonmobil-expand-carbon-capture-storage-135000912.html

Exxon Labarge EPA Verification Plan, 2018…
https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2018-06/documents/shutecreekmrvplan.pdf

Climeworks... $76 million 2020, Microsoft and Shopify
https://i3connect.com/company/climeworks
Climeworks Begins Operations at Carbfix, Reykjavik, Iceland
https://techcrunch.com/2021/12/03/co2-capture-iceland-climeworks-orca/

Petra Nova – next process and Covid Shutdown…
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/lessons-learned-from-the-closure-of-petra-nova-idtechex-reports-301252906.html

Parish Fire, Petra Nova and possible shutdown of Parish…
https://environmenttexas.org/news/txe/statement-ft-bend-county%E2%80%99s-wa-parish-coal-plant-catches-fire

 

CHINA

June 27, 2022, Exxon Mobile China, 10 million tons per year, Dayawan Petrochemical…
https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/news/newsroom/news-releases/2022/0627_exxonmobil-and-cnooc-and-shell-pursue-carbon-capture-and-storage-hub-in-china 

April 30, 2021, Chinas largest O&G producer CNOOC is building 300,000 ton CO2 per year air capture facility in the South China Sea; undersea saline aquifer sequestration…
https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/chinas-cnooc-launches-first-offshore-carbon-capture-project-2021-08-30/

June 14, 2021, Eight large-scale carbon capture and utilization projects are scheduled by 2025 in China, $450 billion…
https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3137245/climate-change-chinas-plans-double-carbon-capture-capacity

 

Gulf Coast Carbon CO2 Capture, Sequestration and Utilization Hub Carbon Hub, Carbon Capture Hub

December 14, 2022 - Infrastructure Act funding competition launched… $3.5 billion for four regional hubs. First round $1.2 billion from $3 million to $500 million matching funds, application deadline January 24, 2023. The remaining $2.3 billion round in 2024.

December 14, 2022, DOE releases record funding for removing carbon, By Corbin Hiar, Carlos Anchondo, EE News
https://www.eenews.net/articles/doe-releases-record-funding-for-removing-carbon/

September 23, 2022 – DOE $4.9 billion from Bipartisan Infrastructure Act for point source CO2 capture ($2.54 B), pipeline design ($110 m), and storage, validation and testing ($2.25 B)
The Carbon Capture Demonstration Projects Program will provide up to $2.54 billion to develop six integrated carbon capture, transport and storage projects that can be deployed at power plants or other industrial facilities, including cement, pulp and paper, iron, steel, and certain types of chemical plants.

-  Carbon Dioxide Transport, Engineering, and Design will provide up to $100 million to design regional carbon dioxide pipeline networks to safely transport captured CO2.

-  Carbon Storage Validation, and Testing will provide up to $2.25 billion to develop new and expanded large-scale, commercial carbon storage projects with the capacity to store at least 50 million metric tons of CO2.
Exclusive: Energy Department announces nearly $4.9 billion for carbon management
(scroll down) https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/23/inside-two-day-scramble-add-drought-funding-climate-law/

July 28, 2022, The Big Business of Burying Carbon, Wired… A good article on what's really happening with carbon hubs in Port Arthur and Louisiana
https://www.wired.com/story/big-business-burying-carbon-dioxide-capture-storage/ 

May 19, 2022, DOE Announces Bipartisan Infrastructure Law Effort to Establish Regional Direct Air Capture Hubs for Large-Scale CO2 Removal… $3.5 billion NOI to fund – " Bipartisan Infrastructure Law’s $3.5 billion program to capture and store carbon dioxide (CO2) pollution directly from the air. The Regional Direct Air Capture Hubs program will support four large-scale, regional direct air capture hubs that each comprise a network of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) projects to help address the impacts of climate change, creating good-paying jobs and prioritizing community engagement and environmental justice."
https://www.energy.gov/articles/biden-administration-launches-35-billion-program-capture-carbon-pollution-air-0

May 20, 2022, Federal Carbon Dioxide Removal Leadership Act (Whitehouse and Coons)… accelerating U.S. global leadership in carbon dioxide removal technologies
https://www.whitehouse.senate.gov/news/release/whitehouse-coons-introduce-legislation-to-accelerate-carbon-dioxide-removal-

H.R.7434 – Federal Carbon Dioxide Removal Leadership Act… Starting at $500 ton, reducing thereafter
https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/7434

One Pager Scale Act…  https://www.coons.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/One%20Pager%20-%20SCALE%20Act%20-%20117.pdf

May 5, 2022, Chevron joins first-of-its-kind Gulf Coast carbon sequestration project…
https://grist.org/energy/chevron-joins-first-of-its-kind-gulf-coast-carbon-sequestration-project/

November 2021 - FYI on Lease 257 and CO2 injection… Takeaway - "Of the 317 bids the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management received – the highest since 2014 – about 140 of them were for tracts located in shallow waters of the Texas and Louisiana coast, inexpensive areas with depleted oil and gas reserves. 'The oil and gas reserves in those areas are pretty much tapped out at this point, so it's hard for me to imagine a company going in there with the idea of producing more oil and gas,' said Hugh Daigle, a petroleum researcher and professor at the University of Texas. 'This is probably a CCS push.' "
Carbon capture plays prominent role in latest Gulf lease auction, S&P Global, Commodity Insights, 18 Nov 2021.
(Free account required) https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/energy-transition/111821-carbon-capture-plays-prominent-role-in-latest-gulf-lease-auction

ExxonMobil bids on 94 shallow-water tracts - Auction confirms Gulf's carbon capture potential
Carbon capture and storage played a large role in Lease Sale 257, which recorded a bumper crop of bids from oil and gas producers Nov. 17 for drilling rights in the US Gulf of Mexico.

Of the 317 bids the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management received – the highest since 2014 – about 140 of them were for tracts located in shallow waters of the Texas and Louisiana coast, inexpensive areas with depleted oil and gas reserves. "The oil and gas reserves in those areas are pretty much tapped out at this point, so it's hard for me to imagine a company going in there with the idea of producing more oil and gas," said Hugh Daigle, a petroleum researcher and professor at the University of Texas. "This is probably a CCS push."

The largest bidder for shallow-water tracts was ExxonMobil, which placed bids on 94 tracts worth $158,000 apiece, according to BOEM data. The company's tracts are clustered in the Brazos Area, the Galveston Area and the High Island Area – locations in close proximity to the company's announced $100 billion CCS hub that will be located in southeast Texas. ExxonMobil didn't confirm whether the 94 tracts it placed bids on will be used for CCS. In a Nov. 18 statement to S&P Global Platts, the company said it "will work with the Department of the Interior on plans for the blocks once they are awarded."

"ExxonMobil takes a long-term business view. We will evaluate the seismic and subsurface geology for future commercial potential," it said. Other shallow-water tracts that received bids from companies were located off the coast of Louisiana, close to large onshore sources of CO2 emissions and existing transportation infrastructure.

The Gulf CCS push indicated by the shallow-water bids should come as no surprise considering investors' increasing focus on environmental standards and the growing number of net-zero commitments amongst traditional oil and gas companies. Earlier this year the Wall Street Journal reported that ExxonMobil is considering a 2050 net-zero pledge but has yet to make a firm commitment.

"This is the first big lease sale in the Gulf of Mexico that has come after a lot of these companies have made various carbon commitments," Daigle said. "And in light of that, it's probably not surprising that you're starting to see some of these leasing decisions being driven not just by oil and gas production, but by other economic interests of the company."

March 2021 - Bipartisan group introduces nation’s first comprehensive CO2 infrastructure bill…
https://www.coons.senate.gov/news/press-releases/bipartisan-group-introduces-nations-first-comprehensive-co2-infrastructure-bill

July 11, 2021, Gulf Coast ready to develop Carbon Storage Hub…
The stage is set for a new carbon storage economy to emerge along the Gulf Coast, according to a study led by The University of Texas at Austin. "$100 billion or more"    -- 50 million metric tons of CO2 annually by 2030. By 2040, it could be 100 million metric tons: Average 75 million tons annually for 18 years, 1.35 billion tons total, $74 per ton.
Gulf Coast ready to develop Carbon Storage Hub, Carbon Capture Journal, July 11, 2021.
https://www.carboncapturejournal.com/news/gulf-coast-ready-to-develop-carbon-storage-hub/4700.aspx?Category=all

November 17, 2021, Calma, Exxon’s new Gulf of Mexico leases aren’t what they seem, The Verge…
https://www.theverge.com/2021/11/18/22789506/exxonmobil-gulf-of-mexico-lease-sale-carbon-capture-sequestration

November 17, 2021, Exxon Eyes CCS in Active US Gulf Lease Sale…
November 17, Energy Intelligence Group
https://www.energyintel.com/0000017d-2f96-defa-ab7d-6fbf0ac90000

May 19, 2021, Gulf Coast Carbon Center (BCCC) Bureau of Economic Geology, University of Texas…
https://www.beg.utexas.edu/gccc
Full Paper - Meckel et al., Carbon capture  utilization and storage hub development on the Gulf Coast, Greenhouse Gases Science and Technology, May 19, 2021.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ghg.2082?af=R

April 19, 2021, ExxonMobil Statement, $100 Billion…
The promise of carbon capture and storage, and a Texas-sized call to action
https://energyfactor.exxonmobil.com/insights/partners/houston-ccs-hub/

and AP, 110221, Exxon seeks $100 billion for Houston carbon capture plan…
https://apnews.com/article/climate-technology-business-paris-f76df7ee4e6a8a4b6bab96badb2eb41a

April 14, 2022, Exxon Mobile Australia 2 million tons per year in design, Gippsland Project…
https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/news/newsroom/news-releases/2022/0414_exxonmobil-begins-design-studies-for-south-east-australia-carbon-capture-hub-in-gippsland

CCS Status

Global Status of CCS Report 2021, Global CCS Institute, November 2021… 40 million tons existing capacity, 135 commercial CCS facilities in the project pipeline with 27 fully operational. Under construction, advanced and early development: 75 million tons per year in 2020, 111 in 2021, 48% increase.
https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Global-Status-of-CCS-2021-Global-CCS-Institute-1121.pdf

Global CSS Institute Database CO2re…
https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Global-Status-of-CCS-2021-Global-CCS-Institute-1121.pdf
Major Update October 2021…
https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/news-media/press-room/media-releases/institute-unveils-global-ccs-database/

Bruce Melton PE
Director, Climate Change Now Initiative, 501c3
President, Melton Engineering Services Austin
8103 Kirkham Drive
Austin, Texas 78736
(512)799-7998
ClimateDiscovery.org
ClimateChangePhoto.org
MeltonEngineering.com
Face...@Bruce.Melton.395
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[Seth Miller]

"Would industry be betting on tech that was infeasible?”

I am probably going to regret saying this here, but of course they would! We’ve just exited an era of blockchain and self-driving cars and 15 minute food delivery. Lots of things got funded that were practically infeasible, at least in terms of returning investment.

The specific worry for supporters of DAC is that the project balance sheets made sense in a world with a Federal funds rate of 0.08% do not make sense today when the effective Fed rate is 4.57%. Few new projects are likely to be funded, and the ones that are funded already will be slow-walked.

In a world with zero interest rates, bets on the long term future were easy. A dollar in ten or twenty years was seen to be worth (more or less) the same as a dollar today. But raise rates several points and long-term bets don’t pay out the same. The world of investment has changed.

Case in point: Occidental Petroleum has announced both that their first project will cost more than expected ($1.1 billion for 500 kilotonnes/year capacity) and that they are slipping the schedule. Right now, for this project the cost of capital alone (no energy use, no labor, no maintenance) amortized over 30 years and producing at its full capacity would be about $300/tonne (assuming Oxy’s current WACC of 13.3%). Their all-in cost at full capacity (including opex and energy) will likely be above $400/tonne over the lifetime of the plant. 

Before inflation and interest rates spiked (less than a year ago!), a cost <$250/tonne seemed in reach for that plant. In a low interest rate world, it could have printed money by stacking the California tax credit for EOR alongside the federal one. That sort of profitability looks impossible today, and will stay impossible until/unless interest rates decline again.

Sorry to be severe, and of course feel free to pile on. :-)

Best,

Seth 

-------

Seth Miller, Ph.D.

www.linkedin.com/in/sethmiller2

Check my blog at: perspicacity.xyz

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[Clive Elsworth]

Chris

 

I don’t see the relevance of the Redfield ratio to pH because it indicates uptake of nutrients to make organic carbon (C_org).

 

On pH, taking a chemical equation including both Ca cations and bicarbonate anions, photosynthetic production of C_org and carbonate precipitation (to make calcite) cancel out:

 

Ca(HCO₃)₂    à    CH₂O  +   CaCO₃   +   O₂

Weak base               C_org               calcite

 

Are you saying the loss of the weak bicarbonate base constitutes a loss of pH?

 

If so, and there are sufficient nutrients then photosynthesis restores it:

 

Ca(HCO₃)₂ + 2H₂O  à   ⅓C₆H₁₂O₆    +    Ca(OH)₂    +   2O₂

Weak base                         C_org                      Strong base

 

 

Of course, the strong base doesn’t last long because it soon reacts with dissolved CO₂:

 

Ca(OH)₂    +   2CO₂   à    Ca(HCO₃)₂

 

My conclusion: photosynthesis raises pH, enabling calcite precipitation, and vice versa: calcite precipitation lowers pH, enabling photosynthesis, which would otherwise take the pH too high. In that way phytoplankton and calcite producers regulate ocean pH – if there are sufficient nutrients. That’s when the Redfield ratio becomes important.

 

To complete my claim, this is how sulfate reduction of C_org in anoxic sediments produces alkalinity and permanently sequestered carbon (simplified):

 

3 [CH₂O]  +  SO₄^2-  à     CO₃^2-    +  2 H₂O  +  [(CHO)₂S]

                                carbonate (alkaline)        sapropel (resistant to further oxidation)

 

 

Clive

[Tom Goreau]

It is not true that dumping organic carbon on the sea floor will stimulate sea life beyond anaerobic bacteria.

 

Nor is it true that there is little decomposition in the water column, most organic matter is oxidized before it gets to the bottom.

 

I’m just back from Patagonian floating salmon farms.

 

On the bottom underneath them is a black mountain of rotting organic matter covered with a white film of sulfide oxidizing bacteria.

 

The deep water of the fjords is turning anoxic, causing massive kills of fish, clams, mussels, and 20 kilometers of the world’s only shallow cold water coral reefs, as well as toxic algae blooms.

 

The acidity from that decomposition, proportional to the loss of oxygen, will dissolve limestone plankton shells on the deep sea floor, moving the ocean limestone “snow line” upwards.

 

Thomas J. F. Goreau, PhD
President, Global Coral Reef Alliance

Chief Scientist, Blue Regeneration SL
President, Biorock Technology Inc.

Technical Advisor, Blue Guardians Programme, SIDS DOCK

37 Pleasant Street, Cambridge, MA 02139

gor...@globalcoral.org
www.globalcoral.org
Skype: tomgoreau
Tel: (1) 617-864-4226 (leave message)

 

Books:

Geotherapy: Innovative Methods of Soil Fertility Restoration, Carbon Sequestration, and Reversing CO2 Increase

http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781466595392

 

Innovative Methods of Marine Ecosystem Restoration

http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781466557734

 

No one can change the past, everybody can change the future

 

It’s much later than we think, especially if we don’t think

 

Those with their heads in the sand will see the light when global warming and sea level rise wash the beach away

 

Geotherapy: Regenerating ecosystem services to reverse climate change

 

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/CarbonDioxideRemoval/080801d955f6%242d482980%2487d87c80%24%40EndorphinSoftware.co.uk.

[Clive Elsworth]

>Nor is it true that there is little decomposition in the water column, most organic matter is oxidized before it gets to the bottom.

 

Are you saying the size and speed of pieces sinking and the distance to the seafloor have no effect on the amount by which they are oxidized on the way down?

 

Do you reject all forms of sulfate reduction in anoxic sediments?

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[Tom Goreau]

No, there is a huge spectrum of sizes of sinking organic matter, but most gets oxidized on the way down or on the sediment surface, not deeper in the sediment. Very little is buried intact.

 

Do I “reject sulfate reduction in anoxic sediments?” Of course not!

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[Bruce Melton -- Austin, Texas]

The cryptoshenanigans were different individuals, orgs and an Elon.

And of course project 0 is going to cost more than expected... That's not a big deal at all.

That list of $100s of billions committed that I sent with my last post will be funded from the the FFIX (fossil fuel industrial complex) mostly, not the cryoptoshenanigans tribe. These projects are now made possible by the IRA's enhancements to IRS Section 45Q  where the incentive for CO2 sequestration with EOR is $85 a ton and the break even cost with the first generation 1.2 million ton per year full scale flue gas removal unit at Petra Nova is $65 ton, where their ongoing shutdown mods will take them down to $45 a ton break even. For straight sequestration the $185 a ton 45Q pay is well outside the $94 a ton cost of removal for Carbon Engineering using grid-based fracked gas with a 10 percent carbon penalty at $0.03 kWh, where renewables are utility scale at $0.01 kWh today. What the FFIX will do however is not use grid-based renewables, but use their own fracked natural gas that is almost free to them, lowering costs even further, and simply build units that are 10 percent bigger to remove the extra GHGs so they can collect their pay.

On Costs - What you say about Oxy's costs in the Permian - this is not what Carbon Engineering's chief engineer told me, and not what Keith 2018 says. Where is your data? No way they would build for that kind of money.

Costs of air capture CO2 - Interpretation of Keith 2018 for capex, ops and maintenance:

• The $94 to $232 per ton range reflects the low and high energy costs of the cheapest fracked gas at the time of $0.03 kWh to $0.06 kWh (verified through personal communication with Keith).
• Keith includes a 10% carbon penalty for the natural gas energy, in other words, his paper says it takes 10 percent more process to remove the carbon emitted from burning the natural gas to create the energy to run the process.
• Latest wind and solar costs, utility scale are now at $0.01 kWh.
• Keith includes 8% profit which is irrelevant with DAC for the commons and a price paid per ton for removal.
• Keith includes a 7.5 to 12.5 percent capitol recovery factor which is irrelevant with DAC for the commons and a price paid per ton for removal.
• The process has a levelized efficiency of 90 percent considering upstream and fugitive emissions in the process and sequestration transportation and injection.
• 87 percent of total costs are energy related.
• At $0.01 kWh then, a 66 percent decrease from Keith's $0.03 kWh $94 per ton scenario, costs are $39 a ton. Removing costs for private industry (profit and capitol recovery) because of a price paid per ton for capture, and the 10 percent carbon penalty for natural gas, costs are reduced by about 30 percent.
• This interpretation is simplified and does not take into consideration that some of the energy required must be heat energy, therefor the $39 a ton with renewables alone is optimistic, but does not consider further process refinements and scaling.
  
• Process refinements reduces costs further.
• Scaling reduces costs further dependent upon the amount of scaling.
• Does not include costs for sequestration however, the existing EOR infrastructure makes costs for sequestration in the Permian very low, likely less than 5 percent, plausibly a few percent.
  

Keith et al., A Process for Capturing CO2 from the Atmosphere, Joule, August 15, 2018.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542435118302253

Steep trails,

B

Bruce Melton PE
Director, Climate Change Now Initiative, 501c3
President, Melton Engineering Services Austin
8103 Kirkham Drive
Austin, Texas 78736
(512)799-7998
ClimateDiscovery.org
ClimateChangePhoto.org
MeltonEngineering.com
Face...@Bruce.Melton.395
Inst...@Bruce.C.Melton
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Twitter - BruceCMelton1

[Tom Goreau]

The amount of energy cycled on the sea floor through sulfate-reducing ecosystems in sediments is less than that from oxygen-using microbes above them, who eat the most energy intensive biochemicals on the bottom. Even more is cycled above them in the water column, but little of that is sulfate reducing, unless in anoxic dead zones. To make the sea floor a major carbon sink, huge deep ocean dead zones are needed, most fisheries and coastal ecosystems would collapse. I saw this happen as a boy when Kingston Harbour, Jamaica went anoxic from overfertilization.  

[alb...@thefarm.org]

Thanks for this Bruce. By this Keith estimate I infer 1 ton CO2 removed has an electric cost (OPEX) of 3133 kWh. ($94/0.03). This is more precise, but different, than the graphic in the Pathways article under discussion, which gives 200-8000 kWh per ton (200-80000 TWh/Gt, depending on CCS or CCU pathway).

On 3/14/23 10:51 AM, Bruce Melton -- Austin, Texas wrote:

At $0.01 kWh then, a 66 percent decrease from Keith's $0.03 kWh $94 per ton scenario, costs are $39 a ton. Removing costs for private industry (profit and capitol recovery) because of a price paid per ton for capture, and the 10 percent carbon penalty for natural gas, costs are reduced by about 30 percent.

--

[Bru Pearce]

Hi Tom,

 

So what are your thoughts on www.seafields.eco and their proposals to farm Sargassum in the south Atlantic to compress and sink in the deep oceans for carbon sequestration. Income to come from the carbon markets, I suspect that proving out methodologies and getting income to flows will take them some time. Personally I think they have a quicker route by farming the Sargassum and using it to create biofuels and other products. We have parties interested in sustainable aviation fuel as Corsair commitments are putting some of their airline investments under considerable strain.

 

Best wishes,

 

Bru Pearce

 

E-mail   b...@envisionation.org  

Web www.envisionation.org  

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[Clive Elsworth]

Tom, I’m trying to find common ground.

 

My problem is I’m describing a proposal to recover life in the abyssal ocean, which is double the size of Earth’s land area, and you’re comparing the effect to coastal waters highly polluted by aquaculture.

 

Anoxic sediments exist in unpolluted waters all around the globe. What we see is that the preindustrial ocean which had much greater biomass, must have fed on something, and until around 2000 years ago the Earth was reverting to the next glacial period. At least the last glacial period was partly driven by airborne dust that delivered iron to the abyssal ocean, healthier fertilisation by diel and other vertical migration of animals, and less surface stratification. Is that such a bad thing to want to reproduce?

 

Clive

[Tom Goreau]

It’s better to recycle seaweed carbon to soils as a resource, than dump it in the deep.

 

I dived on a seaweed farm in Panama yesterday. It’s too valuable a resource to waste.

[Ronal Larson]

Tom,  Bru,  CDR list and ccs

I’ve changed the list thread name as the last several message had zero connection to DAC = Direct Air Capture.  The three messages that follow are related to ocean biomass NOT being sequestered on the deep ocean floor….   The thread title then was :  Re: [CDR] Barriers and enablers of two development pathways for Direct Air Capture

1.   This is to introduce the word “biochar” into this discussion.  Mostly because Tom is strongly arguing that any ocean biomass being sunk to the ocean floor will be strongly suspect of.a short life for some hard-to-determine portion of the C in the biomass.

2.  Tom hasn’t mentioned biochar here, but many time in personal communications over several decades.

3.  Bru has given a cite to this site:  www.seafields.eco - which is clearly close to biochar.

4.  When I google for “biochar sargassum,”  there are plenty of cites.  Positive cites.

5.  Isn’t the concept of large sargassum fields that are sustainably harvested to a long life in soils (and biofuels) a much safer commercialization path for sargassum?

(Or maybe HTC = hydrothermal carbonization?)

6.  Many biochar publications today are noting negative life cycle costs.  First cost is important but 100-year benefits what we should be discussing.  Many examples of one year paybacks for biochar - in may more cases than soils.,

Ron

<image001.jpg>Bru Pearce