Beyond biomass: rethinking forest carbon credits for credible climate finance in India

[Geoengineering News]

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s42398-026-00460-5

Authors: Rajendra Kumar Joshi, Satish Chandra Garkoti

Published: 07 August 2026

Abstract

Forests play a critical role in climate mitigation however carbon credit systems in India largely overlook ecological processes that determine long-term carbon permanence. This study assessed the alignment between forest carbon accounting practices and ecosystem dynamics using data on carbon pools, sequestration potential, and market valuation. The findings reveal that soil organic carbon and microbial processes, which account for 30–50% of total forest carbon, are largely excluded from current frameworks, resulting in the systematic undervaluation of more durable carbon stocks. This exclusion leads to a systematic undervaluation of long-term carbon assets and creates a misalignment with high-integrity credit standards, defined here as rigorous, verifiable criteria ensuring permanence, preventing leakage, and enabling full carbon pool accounting (including soil and microbial carbon). Spatial analysis across Indian biomes indicates significant heterogeneity in carbon finance potential, with tropical wet evergreen, montane temperate, and alpine forests delivering the highest monetizable carbon values (often exceeding USD 11,000–13,000 ha⁻¹) relative to plantation-centric systems that dominate current markets yet carry heightened reversal risks. These findings reveal critical market integrity concerns, including the over-crediting of transient biomass pools and under-pricing of ecological risk. This study is limited by its reliance on secondary (ISFR-based) data and model related uncertainties, which may affect the precision of the estimates. Therefore, we propose a revised framework that integrates belowground carbon, permanence-weighted valuation, and ecosystem-based approaches to enhance the credibility and effectiveness of forest carbon markets.

Source: Springer Nature Link