Final Capstone Presentation

[Melissa Amler]

Team,

Attached is our final presentation (also posted in dropbox). Please take some time today/tonight to go through the deck so that we can spend time tomorrow rehearsing. The only slide missing is the IRP slide, but that will be incorporated shortly.

Thanks!

Melissa

--

______________

Melissa Amler

Candidate, Master of International Affairs, 2013

Columbia University, School of International and Public Affairs

[Joshua Whitcraft]

I think this presentation is sharp.

My initial feedback:

Slide 12 - make title either 1 line (smaller text) or 2 lines (larger text).  I caution writing "main driver".  how about "A major driver"?

Slide 14 - it's not in spite of credit ratings. header should read "in spite of spread tightening".  the story is due, in part, to credit rating improvements.

Slide 15 - do we also want a line of developed market CDS to use as comparison?

Slide 20 - Melissa, nice job on the domestic ownership slide.  I'm not completely familiar with the Chile example.  Whoever presents that slide should be up to speed on Chile.  If that's me, I can be sufficiently knowledgeable by Wednesday. 

Slide 21 - Take out "Political" from light blue header row -- you say Political above. Change "Foreign Exchange" to "FX" and the header will now be on one row.

Slide 26 - I mentioned this before, but prepare to talk about what is in the portfolios you are modeling.  It is not clear from just reading the slide.  I suggest putting a table on the left slide which has the 3 portfolios on the column header and then rows of the asset classes, with the % allocation in the table. 

Slide 27 - How can the sharpe ratio of ex-EMD but so much higher than ex-LCD?  The two plots on Slide 26 are almost identical.

Joshua Whitcraft

Columbia University, MBA, MIA

646.267.8150

<Capstone Presentation Final.pptx>

[Melissa Amler]

Great, thanks for the feedback. Will follow up with another iteration by this evening.

[Melissa Amler]

Hey guys - attached is the final presentation with the IRP slide and Josh's comments. Feel free to email me tonight with any additional thoughts. The version in the dropbox has been updated as well.

Melissa

[Ryan Hakim]

Schedule for tomorrow:

6:10-7:30 - Rehearse with AQ comments

7:30-7:55 - Complete run through - no interruptions

7:55-8:00 - Final words/comments

As we have it currently:

Joanna - slides 1-5

Anna - slides 7-8

Ryan - slide 9

Evan - slides 11-15

Josh - slides 16-21

Melissa - Slides 23-29

Please let me know if I have this wrong or if you would like to change.

-R

--

Ryan Hakim | MPA International Finance and Economic Policy
Columbia University | New York, NY 10027

Mobile +1 917 621 6562 | Email ryan....@em-economics.com

www.em-economics.com | Facebook | Twitter

 

This e-mail (including any attachments) is intended solely for the addressee and could contain information that is confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any use, disclosure, copying or dissemination of this e-mail and any attachment is strictly prohibited and you should immediately delete it.

[mab...@columbia.edu]

Hey team,

Agree with the schedule, but when did we decide who's presenting?
Frankly I don't think 6 out 8 people should be presenting anyways but
as it is i'm the only person not presenting his section (other than
Chris given his role as editor), which Im not comfortable with.

Thoughts welcomed.

MBL


Ryan Hakim <ryan...@gmail.com> ha escrito:

> Schedule for tomorrow:
> *

>
>
> 6:10-7:30 - Rehearse with AQ comments

> 7:30-7:55 - Complete run through - no interruptions*
> *7:55-8:00 - Final words/comments*
> *
> *
> *As we have it currently:*

>
> Joanna - slides 1-5
> Anna - slides 7-8
> Ryan - slide 9
> Evan - slides 11-15
> Josh - slides 16-21
> Melissa - Slides 23-29
>

> *Please let me know if I have this wrong or if you would like to change.*
> *
> *
> *-R*

> *Ryan Hakim | MPA International Finance and Economic Policy*

> Columbia University | New York, NY 10027
> Mobile +1 917 621 6562 | Email ryan....@em-economics.com

> www.em-economics.com | Facebook <http://www.facebook.com/emeconomics> |
> Twitter <https://twitter.com/emeconomics>

[Joshua Whitcraft]

Initial thoughts:

+ Add slide numbers throughout

+ Slide 12 - add "expected" so it reads "...returns is the expected continued appreciation…"

+ Slide 13 is new, so let's talk about this tonight

+ Slide 20 - I am inclined to show the international piece first (i.e. move to left side of slide) because international ownership was the original story.  Then we talk about Chile as a recent example of divergence.  

+ Slide 26 - round the %s so just put in 16% for all the All Asset lines.  I would re-label "Index" to "Asset Class" and then change the index names to the asset classes they represent -- i.e. U.S. Gov, U.S. Bonds, EM Equity, U.S. Equity, EM Bonds USD, EM Bonds LCY

Mario, you may present for me if you're keen.  I am more interested in the Q&A.  In general, I think folks who are potentially gearing for a career on Wall Street and CS in particular should present -- this is a great opportunity.  I am not in the group, FYI.

Joshua Whitcraft

Columbia University, MBA, MIA

646.267.8150

[Adam Quinton]

Thanks for this and esp the last point re the presenters Josh. As you say another speaker selection criterion is who is targeting this world as a career opportunity.
Adam

--

Adam Quinton 

aandaq...@gmail.com

+1-203-219-5215

Linkedin

[Mario Bours]

Thanks Josh,

I am certainly interested in presenting but I also think that frankly, less is usually better in terms of flow and then we can all answer Q&A as it pertains our individual sections. We can talk about it later.

Best,

Mario

Enviado desde mi iPhone

[Joshua Whitcraft]

For Melissa:

On my thoughts below from this morning, I will work on slide 20 now.  I want to also include the amount of bonds outstanding for each country in the international chart.  Showing that a country is 43% international, for example, only gives me good perspective if I know how many bonds that represents.  Will send you updated slide shortly.

On Slide 26, can you please include the plots for all the asset classes themselves?  Yes, that will make the plot busy, so perhaps that plot finds its way to the appendix.  But since this is a technical slide, which relies on our modeling, I think it's best to show more than less.  We'll see how the two plots compare optically tonight. Make sense?  Thanks.

Joshua Whitcraft

Columbia University, MBA, MIA

646.267.8150

[Joshua Whitcraft]

See revised Ownership slide attached which 1) flips international and domestic sides and 2) adds total debt outstanding by country (international).

Melissa, this International data is from your Bloomberg document in your Research folder.  You mentioned to me that it was as of 12/31/12.  Can you confirm?  In the data excel, I saw 2008 referred but that could be a typo.  Thanks.

[Melissa Amler]

Thanks Josh. will incorporate today. All of the bberg data was researched in January 2013. Will send out new version this afternoon.  

Sent from my iPhone

On May 6, 2013, at 12:27 PM, Joshua Whitcraft <joshuaw...@gmail.com> wrote:

See revised Ownership slide attached which 1) flips international and domestic sides and 2) adds total debt outstanding by country (international).

Melissa, this International data is from your Bloomberg document in your Research folder.  You mentioned to me that it was as of 12/31/12.  Can you confirm?  In the data excel, I saw 2008 referred but that could be a typo.  Thanks.

<JW_Ownership_5.6.pptx>

Joshua Whitcraft

Columbia University, MBA, MIA

646.267.8150

<Capstone Presentation Final.pptx>

[mab...@columbia.edu]

Hey Melissa and team,

Enclosed please find some edits to slides 16 and 17. The idea behind
these was to have the bullets in them read more like takeaways.

Question: on slide 16 when we say it represents 75% of new issuances,
I assumed that was 75% EM fixed income, correct?. I also deleted
"turnover" after Mexico (out of place).

Also, where did we get the traded volume data? I guess I'm surprised
China is not there given it always features so prominently in all the
liquidity indicators for the asset class. I just want to make sure
we're not overlooking something important. A good turnaround would be
simply to delete "lead" at the end of the statement.

Edits in slide 17 are mostly to tie in with the story that it is
mostly because issuer countries took it upon themselves to reform
their financial sectors that liquidity for the asset class has
increased.

Thoughts welcomed.

Best.

Mario


Melissa Amler <meliss...@gmail.com> ha escrito:

[Joshua Whitcraft]

Slide 16 - Unsure the exact source.  Thought it was EMTA.  75% LCY of total EMD issuance would make sense and consistent to the chart above on the slide.  Perhaps it should say that 75% of new issuance is corporate (includes hard FX, though) as per the below quote.

Quoting the attached source:

"increasingly important role of EM corporates in the marketplace, noting

that 75% of new issuance in EM bonds includes corporate paper."

***

"Turnover in local markets instruments stood at US$813 billion in the fourth quarter, accounting for 64% of total

reported volume. This compares to US$965 billion in the fourth quarter of 2011 (down 16%) and US$882 billion

in the third quarter (down 8%).

EMTA’s survey of local market trading volume has declined, despite the pickup in infl ows to local markets

funds that started early in the quarter,” stated Jane Brauer, Senior Director and EM Debt Strategist at Bank

of America Merrill Lynch. “Volume has been driven by country specifi cs--the drop is quite signifi cant in Brazil

where the Central Bank fi nished its easing cycle and volatility has declined, reducing the incentive for global

investors to take a view on policy rates. In contrast, local market volume increased in Russia, where investors

were trading in anticipation of OFZ’s becoming Euroclearable early this year,” she noted.

Mexican instruments were the most frequently traded local markets debt, at US$144 billion. Other frequentlytraded

local instruments were those from Brazil (US$97 billion) and Russia (US$92 billion)."

By the way, BAML's Alberto Ades is quoted and pictured on page 30.

[mab...@columbia.edu]

Got it. Cool!

Joshua Whitcraft <joshuaw...@gmail.com> ha escrito:

> Joshua Whitcraft
> Columbia University, MBA, MIA
> 646.267.8150
>

> <Capstone Presentation Liquidity (Slides 16-17).pptx>
>
>