Number one step to do:
Study Fed or US Treasury 's policy and its implication.
The attachment is the material I have read which is very good, from HSBC.
Please do spend time to study the recent policy change, it can change the fundamental of the market.
Before you make any future view to the market, study first.
Please read with your own judgement and knowledge. If you are not clear of certain concept, please research and make sure you understand it.
It is very important at a market turning point.
Good luck,
Speculatist