Fw: Happy Second Week of Spring/End of March Madness

[BCJ]

----- Forwarded Message -----

From: Roger Smith - NOAA Federal <roger...@noaa.gov>

To: _NWS SR-ABQ.WWB <sr-ab...@noaa.gov>

Sent: Friday, March 29, 2019, 10:35:31 AM MDT

Subject: Happy Second Week of Spring/End of March Madness

Good morning dedicated CoCoRaHS observers,

               The first thing I would like to write to you this morning is to express how much our scientific and civic communities appreciate the volunteer work you do to provide precipitation data for northern and central New Mexico. As you know, this data is used to support local agriculture, hydrologists in spring run-off forecasting, drought monitoring and drought forecasting, municipal water resource planning, wildlife conservation, fire weather monitoring and forecasting, forestry, private and public weather forecasting and a host of other organizations and groups. This data improves the quality of our lives and allows us to make informed decisions on issues critical to our well being. Thank you for being a part of the CoCoRaHS network. 

               I would like to wish you a happy spring. This morning, I took a look at monthly precipitation for March 2018 and March 2019. Overall, there was a large difference in the amount of precipitation reported when comparing March 2018 to March 2019. But, as is often the issue with broad generalizations about data, while most of the comparisons are impressive, there are a few comparisons which do not vary by much. These important differences are evidence of the complexity of variations of precipitation over a given geographical area and a given time period. So here is a sampling of this data:

     Station                                                 March 2018               March 2019

Albuquerque Sunport                                  0.18 inches              0.61 inches

Clayton Municipal Airpark                           0.07 inches             2.28 inches

Roswell International Air Center Airport      0.01 inches             0.42 inches

*** The above data is from automated surface observing systems, and the data below is from a sampling of CoCoRaHS observers by county ***

     Station                                                    March 2018          March 2019

Observer in Bernalillo County                        0.29  inches        0.82 inches

Observer in Catron County                            0.89 inches         1.15 inches

Observer in Chaves County                           0.04 inches         0.60 inches

Observer in Cibola County                             0.25 inches         0.14 inches

Observer in Colfax County                             0.74 inches         4.66 inches

Observer in Curry County                               0.04 inches         1.19 inches

Observer in De Baca County                          Trace                   0.45 inches

Observer in Guadalupe County                       0.15 inches         0.43 inches

Observer in Harding County                            Not A Member     2.12 inches 

Observer in Lincoln County                             0.23 inches          0.35 inches

Observer in Los Alamos County                      0.51 inches          3.29 inches

Observer in McKinley County                          1.07 inches           1.72 inches

Observer in Mora County                                 0.16 inches           2.43 inches

Observer in Quay County                                 0.10 inches           0.42 inches

Observer in Rio Arriba County                          0.45 inches           1.87 inches

Observer in Roosevelt County                          0.09 inches           0.67 inches

 

Observer in Sandoval County                           0.91 inches           0.99 inches

Observer in San Juan County                           0.33 inches           2.46 inches

Observer in San Miguel County                        0.17 inches           1.19 inches

Observer in Santa Fe County                           0.31 inches            1.36 inches

Observer in Socorro County                             0.34 inches            0.29 inches

Observer in Taos County                                  0.63 inches            2.43 inches

Observer in Torrance County                           0.41 inches            1.03 inches

Observer in Union County                                0.04 inches            1.90 inches

Observer in Valencia County                            0.24 inches            0.37 inches    

           

               Some obvious hypotheses arise from the data, such as; it appears that northern New Mexico received a lot more precipitation in March of 2019 compared to March of 2018, and that most of northern and central New Mexico received more precipitation in March of 2019. However, the contradictions of those hypotheses and other subtleties in this sampling provide more nuance and would lead someone to investigate more closely. In other words, the more data, the more likely that a better conclusion can be made and better decisions can be made from the data. I would also like to recognize that we have only one active observer in Harding County and thank them for their work. 

               That leads me to my last thought. This year's March Madness has added 96 new CoCoRaHS members in New Mexico! We are significantly ahead in the per capita count nationwide! Here are the top-5 raw counts and per capita counts, as of March 29th at 9:30 AM MDT:

 Traditional Count Top Five

153	South Carolina
96	New Mexico
84	Minnesota
81	Florida
58	Wisconsin

Per Capita* Count Top Five

46.62	New Mexico
33.08	South Carolina
19.52	Wyoming
15.84	Minnesota
14.87	North Dakota

Enjoy the weekend, 

Best regards, 

Roger Smith

Alyssa Clements