The national unemployment rate will stay at close to a 30-year low
over the forecast horizon and this is likely to put upward pressure on
wages, the bank said Wednesday.
Unemployment in Ontario is forecast to peak at less than seven per
cent in 2007 - still quite low by historical standards.
"This is not to diminish the labour market difficulties in some
sectors, like manufacturing, but for many other industries the
greatest hurdle in recent years has been finding adequate staff with
the necessary skills, and this appears likely to continue," stated
TD's deputy chief economist Craig Alexander.
Other challenges include high input costs and increasing competition
from both domestic and foreign competitors.
Those challenges will be offset by robust domestic demand and will be
insulated to the near-term weakness in the export sector, since many
small businesses are focused on services-related and domestically
focused industries.
A decline in housing starts and a cooling in the resale market will
impact the construction and real estate industries, but both will
still produce solid results, TD said.
"The economic backdrop, including solid domestic demand and
historically low interest rates, should be generally supportive for
small business, particularly those serving local markets. And, while
export-oriented firms will face headwinds from U.S. weakness, their
fortunes will improve in 2008."
TD Economics expects the Canadian economy to grow by an annual average
of 2.4 per cent in 2007, and strengthen to 2.9 per cent in 2008.
Domestic demand, which encompasses spending and investment by
households, businesses and governments, is expected to experience a
robust 3.3 per cent increase in 2007 and 2008.
Info Source: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/
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