world oil Deffeyes
Daniel J. Lavigne
Someone wrote:
>The peak of world oil production has profound economic implications. In
2002 crude oil accounted for 39% of the energy consumption in the United
States. U.S. oil demand has climbed on average 1- 2% per year since the
late 1980s according to a report prepared for the Bush Administration,
and worldwide demand is also increasing. Natural gas accounted for 24%
of U.S. energy demand, with coal accounting for 23%. <
The same kind of "demand shock" that applies in some other OECD countries,
that is annual oil demand growth breaking out of a long-term trend well
below 1.5%, spectacularly applies to the USA
US oil demand growth could be over 2% per year. Though it doesnt sound
much, the difference between two-tenths of one percentage point below the
median 1.5%/year, and two-tenths above, that is 1.3% per year against 1.7%
per year, has a lot of big implications for world oil supply capacity
needs, if oil is going to be kept "reasonable priced". If we go into the
high end, and stay at something over 1.7% and up to 2% per year, every
year on average, then US oil demand becomes a difficult thing to satisfy
even faster.
Meanwhile China and India increase their oil demand, with all demand
growth being import-satisfied, at rates well above 5%/year on average.
There is almost unlimited upside potential for world oil demand growth -
downside potential is weak until and unless there is worldwide economic
recession, which will be difficult to have 'stick' because, precisely, big
population industrialising countries have their own internal dynamic of
oil-fuelled economic growth. The only other way out is international
agreed, legislative backed energy transition.
A McKillop
***********************************************
Andrew writes:
" The only other way out is international
agreed, legislative backed energy transition. "
Which, of course, won't happen in a world that
is driven / guided by "The Madness Of Greed".
Ergo, our only hope of avoiding the wars that
shall follow our need for "MORE!!", is to face
the reality of our infection by that madness;
and do our utmost to treat it.
***********************************************
Add your voice to reason's call. Join the Tax Refusal.
ACT ON YOUR DUTY TO REFUSE TO SUPPORT ANY SOCIETY
that would be party to Mass Murder.
***********************************************
http://www.taxrefusal.com http://www.dieoff.com
***********************************************
"Never doubt that a small group of committed individuals can change
the world; indeed, it is the only thing that ever has." - Margaret Mead