Decline Rates - Oil and Gas Journal 5/26/2003
Daniel J. Lavigne
--- In energyr...@yahoogroups.com, "wilfrid02144"
<mclynch@a...> wrote:
> Global discovery rates dropped sharply in the 1970s because of a)
> oversupply of discovered oil in the Middle East (why drill for oil
> you won't produce for decades?) and b) the nationalization of most
> foreign oil company operations.
______________________________________________________---
And in the 1980s, when the price of oil hit more than $50/bbl in
todays dollars, people went exploring worldwide, and guess what?
They didn't find much new oil.
The peak of oil discovery worldwide was back in the 1960s. Not
1990, not in the 1980s, which worldwide shortages and energy
crisis. Last I heard, the gulf war didn't start until 1990, so that
didn't affect Iraq. Nor Saudi Arabia or the other gulf states. nor
the US or Mexico or other countries.
>
> Additionally, events like the Iran/Iraq War caused drilling
> to fall off in those countries.
But didn't affect the rest of the world, where big shortages and
price increases were happening.
> Laherrere compares pre-1980 finding rates
> with post-1980 finding rates to argue that the Middle East has
> little left to find. However, you are comparing returns in the
> highly prospective countries pre-1980 with the large numbers of
> wells drilled in Oman, Syria, Yemen after 1980. The drop in
> finding rates is not just due to geology, but primarily to politics.
No, despite all the new technology, we find 1 barrel for every 4 we
use. And that has been the trend for the past 40 years. We aren't
finding all sorts of oil.
> This has led many to misinterpret the meaning of historical
> discovery rates.
No, the discovery rates are documented, and there will always be
wars and insurgencies, political situations to deal with,
eco=freaks, and political/economic choices made. And they will
affect 'discovery' rates, but over decades, make NO difference. It
all comes out in the analysis, and what isn't found in ten years is
found the next ten years. And we aren't finding 'oil' at the rate
we need.
The peak is imminent, and there is nothing that folks can imagine
about all that undiscovered oil. The USGS fantasy predicted
25gigabarrels of oil found before 2005. So far, in the last
7=8years, only a tiny fraction of that has been found, despite all
sorts of exploration. Makes you wonder about the credibility of
their politically required 'forrecasts' to meet the politicians
needs, not reality.
drT in Dallas TX
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