Simulation And Modeling Projects

[Vannessa Rataj]

Analysismodeling, and simulation (AMS) tools projects conceptualize and refine AMS frameworks and investigate the application of AMS methodologies to address transportation system challenges. Projects in this area support the role of AMS in transportation development related to connected automation, congestion management and mitigation, and state of the practice.

CAV Model Improvement: The focus of CAV model improvement is to use the ground-truth data (i.e., data measured outside a computer model) to develop and validate new modeling tools to enable more robust impact assessments. Open source tools that were recently developed under this program include an automated vehicle lane-changing algorithm, an improved cooperative adaptive cruise control algorithm and connected-human-driver car-following algorithm, an improved speed-harmonization algorithm, and a new cooperative-merge algorithm. The models and their algorithm description documents are now on the ITS CodeHub and are available for download.

Congestion management and mitigation project researchers develop AMS tools to demonstrate the benefits of alternative operational strategies to reduce congestion and improve mobility at bottleneck locations. Projects in this focal area investigate several concepts, including the following:

Roadway design: Researchers using AMS tools can test conceptual freeway and arterial designs never implemented in practice. Microsimulation models facilitate the quantitative and qualitative evaluation of alternative approaches to freeway movement for deployment consideration. Hundreds of possible designs and traffic management systems can be tested safely and efficiently with AMS tools. Examples of designs developed and tested by FHWA include:

Traffic bottleneck solutions: Per the 2018 INRIX Global Traffic Scorecard, Americans lost an average of 97 hours in 2019 because of congestion. This equates to an average loss of $1,348 in wages per driver, or $87 billion in total. Per the 2004 report Traffic Congestion and Reliability: Linking Solutions to Problems, bottlenecks are the largest single source of traffic congestion, accounting for 40 percent of congestion. Projects conducted by FHWA to reduce the impact of bottlenecks include:

The AMS research program seeks to develop and disseminate best practices on the appropriate application of AMS tools and methodologies as well as explore practical improvements to the state of the practice. Emphasis areas include the following:

Stakeholder engagement: The Traffic Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation Pooled Fund Study (TAMS PFS) is an FHWA-led pooled fund study that is intended to serve as a forum and provide an opportunity for the participants to identify, address, and collectively tackle key issues and challenges that are common among public agencies in conducting, managing, and/or approving traffic analysis and simulation studies. The TAMS PFS will address key technical and programmatic traffic analysis issues through the investigation and development of best practices, lessons learned, and recommended guidelines or methodologies. The TAMS PFS will also provide an opportunity to facilitate the interaction, sharing of information, and exchange of knowledge with a broader audience to advance and improve upon the current state of the practice related to the usage, management, and/or approval of traffic analysis and simulation tools.

Exploring new data sources: The current state of the practice is to use aggregated performance measures (e.g., throughput and speed data obtained from readily available loop detectors) to calibrate the microscopic driver behavior (e.g., car-following models) in microsimulation. This program area explores innovative new data sources to explore their applicability to model development and calibration. Examples of data sources of interest include:

The National Institutes of Health often utilzes computer modeling and simulation to inform the design, creation, and evaluation of new projects and inititives. Examples of past uses can be found below.

Background

Security and Emergency Response (SER) staff develop plans that provide direction should an event occur that requires the evacuation of a building, a section of the campus, or the entire NIH campus. This on-going computer simulation study provides a greater understanding of the total evacuation flow from buildings to garages, to gates and to the perimeter roads around the campus. Through analysis of the data and discussions with subject matter experts, this study allows for the identification of opportunities to reduce evacuation time, improve readiness, provides for continuity of operations in shelter in place situations, and plans for assisting personnel with special mobility needs.

A phased approach was utilized beginning with a baseline study as a proof of concept to get stakeholder buy-in, and then incrementally improved analytical rigor and added complexity in subsequent phases. The study also provides data and statistics regarding the expected time required to evacuate the NIH campus in different scenarios.

Background

A tool to better understand, analyze, and improve processes with limited data was needed. Although computer simulation was a promising tool, it had to be tested for viability and sustainability. An evaluation of the utilization capacity of the different shuttles throughout the network of routes and stops was used to test computer simulation.

This project also provided ridership data to the program and acquisition staff that was used along with an innovative approach to performance-based acquisition. This approach was also utilized to obtain offers that reflected a better match between ridership capacity and demand. Obtaining a better understanding of the ridership distribution along the shuttle network throughout the week helped contribute to offers that reduce the cost of providing shuttle transportation.

Background

Recent events across the nation involving shootings within the work place have contributed to an enhanced interest in understanding how such an event might be handled at a Bethesda campus facility. This study helps develop a greater understanding of how the hypothetical active shooter incident could play out and how such an incident could be resolved with minimal impact. The information obtained through this study is used to evaluate the effectiveness of current planned response efforts and aid improving those response plans to minimize the number of casualties, loss of property, and research productivity were an active shooter situation occurred.

Background

The OQM team partnered with the NIH security team to analyze and assess NIH Gateway Center for vehicle and pedestrian visitor entry into NIH Campus. Through the use of computer simulation modeling, this project delivered recommendations on proper staffing and equipment levels required to meet visitor demand at a reduced cost.

Background

The goal of the mass prophylaxis simulation model is to develop an operational concept for providing logistical support for inoculating staff on the NIH campus in the event a local, regional or national crisis requiring urgent immunization as directed by Federal authority.

The simulation model will guide NIH in development of a resource management strategy, identification of resource requirements subject to varying campus populations (e.g., number of NIH personnel, number of medical staff, etc.), determination of an optimal strategy for routing people to inoculation centers, and a better understanding of the time required to inoculate the NIH Bethesda campus.

Purpose

To understand the impact of closing entrance to NIH at Old Georgetown Road and South Drive for the Porter construction project, a simulation tool was used to model the traffic flow from Old Georgetown Road (both Northbound and Southbound) into 3 NIH entrances (Center Drive, South Drive, and Lincoln Drive)

Background

The purpose of the Simplified Acquisitions (SA) project was to identify opportunities to reduce complexity, waste, and lead time during the acquisition process. Steps were taken to obtain and analyze data from the process, (e.g., Deployment Flow Charts, Simplified Acquisitions Shared Spreadsheet, weekly reports sent to ICs, Simplified Acquisitions Spreadsheet Analysis). The challenge was to use the data to model the environment to informing SA management and staff of staffing requirements, devise a strategy for reducing process lead time, and ensure OLAO compliance with the Service Level Agreement with customers.

The School of Modeling, Simulation and Training (SMST) is a global leader in graduate education and is recognized for establishing modeling, simulation, and training as a recognized field of study. The school was established in 2018 and is an innovative, collaborative and immersive learning environment. SMST houses the Institute for Simulation & Training (IST), which conducts modeling, simulations and training research and development, as well as educating future industry leaders. Laboratory space within the institute, such as the prototype development and 3D print laboratory, transforms a number of ideas into products. IST is the largest institution of its kind.

An initiative between UCF and the U.S. Army, named Cyberwerx, focuses on cyber operations planning, cyber data analytics, modeling and simulation, and emerging technology evaluations among other areas. Its objective is to identify, assess and harness forthcoming capabilities for the U.S. Army Program Executive Office for Simulation, Training and Instrumentation. The work pairs UCF experts, both faculty and students, with those who need the tools being developed for real-world application in real time. The collaboration should not only provide potential solutions for current problems, but will help address future problems by providing a direct connection between the lab and practitioners.

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