Shakespeare!

[Dr DR de Lacey]

Cambridge Shakespeare Festival. Seven weeks of amazing entertainment in
various College gardens. Well worth a visit (or more than one ...).
Douglas de Lacey

[Mark Carroll]

On 12 Jul 2021, de Lacey wrote:

> Cambridge Shakespeare Festival. Seven weeks of amazing entertainment in
> various College gardens. Well worth a visit (or more than one ...).

Definitely. One of my happier memories of summers in Cambridge.

-- Mark

[Tim Ward]

No ta. There's a plague out there.

--
Tim Ward - 07801 703 600
www.brettward.co.uk

[Vir Campestris]

On 12/07/2021 19:39, Tim Ward wrote:
> On 12/07/2021 19:03, Dr DR de Lacey wrote:
>> Cambridge Shakespeare Festival. Seven weeks of amazing entertainment
>> in various College gardens. Well worth a visit (or more than one ...).
>> Douglas de Lacey
>
> No ta. There's a plague out there.
>

Cases in Cambs: 195/100k.
Cases in Cambridge: 300/100k
Cases in Central&West Cambridge: 601/100k.

Andy

[Tim Ward]

Exactly. As people who go out are, obviously, more likely to be infected
than people who stay at home, at any particular gathering the rate is
going to be higher than that. So, pretty well anything you go to, on
average there's probably at least one infected person there.

You might catch it from them, or you might not. You feelin' lucky?

[Roland Perry]

In message <scibb9$6sk$1...@dont-email.me>, at 22:14:16 on Mon, 12 Jul
2021, Vir Campestris <vir.cam...@invalid.invalid> remarked:

Just in case anyone is swamped with statistics, that's *new* cases in
the past seven days.

Last week was slightly worse, with Central&West having 885 cases (that's
in the very top band on the NHS heat-mapping).

Longstantion/Swavesey/Oakington is second in the league table locally at
517. South Ely has jumped 242% in a week to 258.
--
Roland Perry

[John Aldridge]

In article <scickl$eqh$1...@dont-email.me>, t...@brettward.co.uk says...

>
> On 12/07/2021 22:14, Vir Campestris wrote:
> > On 12/07/2021 19:39, Tim Ward wrote:
> >> On 12/07/2021 19:03, Dr DR de Lacey wrote:
> >>> Cambridge Shakespeare Festival. Seven weeks of amazing entertainment
> >>> in various College gardens. Well worth a visit (or more than one ...).
> >>> Douglas de Lacey
> >>
> >> No ta. There's a plague out there.
> >>
> > Cases in Cambs: 195/100k.
> > Cases in Cambridge: 300/100k
> > Cases in Central&West Cambridge: 601/100k.
>
> Exactly. As people who go out are, obviously, more likely to be infected
> than people who stay at home, at any particular gathering the rate is
> going to be higher than that. So, pretty well anything you go to, on
> average there's probably at least one infected person there.

On the other hand, many of those cases will now be self-isolating at
home, which improves the odds.

> You might catch it from them, or you might not. You feelin' lucky?

Only you can make that decision, of course.

--
John

[Roland Perry]

In message <MPG.3b575dbcd...@news.eternal-september.org>, at
09:22:54 on Tue, 13 Jul 2021, John Aldridge <jp...@cantab.net> remarked:

>In article <scickl$eqh$1...@dont-email.me>, t...@brettward.co.uk says...
>>
>> On 12/07/2021 22:14, Vir Campestris wrote:
>> > On 12/07/2021 19:39, Tim Ward wrote:
>> >> On 12/07/2021 19:03, Dr DR de Lacey wrote:
>> >>> Cambridge Shakespeare Festival. Seven weeks of amazing entertainment
>> >>> in various College gardens. Well worth a visit (or more than one ...).
>> >>> Douglas de Lacey
>> >>
>> >> No ta. There's a plague out there.
>> >>
>> > Cases in Cambs: 195/100k.
>> > Cases in Cambridge: 300/100k
>> > Cases in Central&West Cambridge: 601/100k.
>>
>> Exactly. As people who go out are, obviously, more likely to be infected
>> than people who stay at home, at any particular gathering the rate is
>> going to be higher than that. So, pretty well anything you go to, on
>> average there's probably at least one infected person there.
>
>On the other hand, many of those cases will now be self-isolating at
>home, which improves the odds.

The risk still arises in the week before they get their positive test
result.

>> You might catch it from them, or you might not. You feelin' lucky?
>
>Only you can make that decision, of course.
>

--

Roland Perry

[Andy McC]

On Monday, July 12, 2021 at 7:39:35 PM UTC+1, Tim Ward wrote:
> On 12/07/2021 19:03, Dr DR de Lacey wrote:
> > Cambridge Shakespeare Festival. Seven weeks of amazing entertainment in
> > various College gardens. Well worth a visit (or more than one ...).
> > Douglas de Lacey
> No ta. There's a plague out there.

Does that not just add to the Shakespearean atmosphere?
https://rosetheatre.org/news/plague-and-pandemic-in-shakespeares-time

[Tim Ward]

On 13/07/2021 09:22, John Aldridge wrote:
>
>> You might catch it from them, or you might not. You feelin' lucky?
>
> Only you can make that decision, of course.

Well, no, on sufficiently serious matters I do what I'm told. But I'd
have made the same decision myself anyway.

[Fevric J. Glandules]

Tim Ward wrote:

> Exactly. As people who go out are, obviously, more likely to be infected
> than people who stay at home, at any particular gathering the rate is
> going to be higher than that. So, pretty well anything you go to, on
> average there's probably at least one infected person there.
>
> You might catch it from them, or you might not. You feelin' lucky?

Radio 4's Friday night comedy had it nicely.

(Roughly, from memory).

"The government's decision to ease lockdown restrictions has split
scientific opinion. For every scientist that says it's dangerous,
reckless, and irresponsible, there's another that says it's batshit
crazy."

[Espen Koht]

You herd of—Boils and plagues
Plaster you o’er, that you may be abhorred
Farther than seen, and one infect another
Against the wind a mile!

[Dr DR de Lacey]

On Tue, 13 Jul 2021, Roland Perry wrote:

>> On the other hand, many of those cases will now be self-isolating at
>> home, which improves the odds.
>
> The risk still arises in the week before they get their positive test result.
>
>>> You might catch it from them, or you might not. You feelin' lucky?
>>
>> Only you can make that decision, of course.

Anyone here able to ask David Spiegelhalter for a risk assessment?:-)
Douglas de Lacey

[Alan Jones]

Nice thought Douglas, but I think he's a bit busy dispensing carefully
worded wisdom on the telly and radio (:-). And attending the Shakespeare?

For event organisers who are concerned, the free lateral flow tests
(LFTs) seem to be very good at spotting those who might be infectious.
That is, those with a moderate viral load (Ct of 25 or lower in a PCR
test), which equates to a 70% chance of being cultured, and is probably
a good lower limit on contagiousness.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/one-number-could-help-reveal-how-infectious-covid-19-patient-should-test-results

Then, the EU have done good work on collating the sensitivity of LFTs
(most in common use are above 95%) using the Ct <= 25 threshold, and
specificity (most in common use are nearly 100%).

https://ec.europa.eu/health/sites/default/files/preparedness_response/docs/covid-19_rat_common-list_en.pdf

So, if correctly applied, on the day, LFTs could weed out 95% of the
individuals who might be infectious. which is a very valuable reduction
in the probability of spreading events. I assume that if you do not
perform the swabbing and transfer correctly, then the control (C) line
will not appear. Perhaps I should experiment.

We sometimes see much lower sensitivities quoted, which I assume are
including the incubation period when PCR shows the infection with Ct
above 25, but the individual is not contagious; and after the infectious
period has ended, when PCR can still detect the virus, but again, the
individual is not contagious.

So, I will continue to use lateral flow tests before I will be in
prolonged proximity with possibly vulnerable people in an enclosed
environment. E.g. in a building, car or public transport. This is even
though I have had the full vaccine regime, because its overall
effectiveness against contagion still seems to elude us. The CDC says
that the fully vaccinated are "less likely to have asymptomatic
infection or to transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others", which is not very
encouraging.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/fully-vaccinated-people.html

Of course, this only helps with the Shakespeare decision above if the
festival encourages the use of such tests prior to arrival, and refunds
fees if people have to cancel on the day. Since I don't see that on
their website, perhaps they consider themselves to be inherently covid-safe?

As Tim (and Clint before him) said, "do I feel lucky?"

Ah-choo!

Alan Jones

[Tim Ward]

On 15/07/2021 15:26, Dr DR de Lacey wrote:
>
> Anyone here able to ask David Spiegelhalter for a risk assessment?:-)

Well, one has been known to run into him in the SCR ... but I haven't
been going to college dinners recently, because covid.

[Fevric J. Glandules]

Espen Koht wrote:

> You herd of—Boils and plagues
> Plaster you o’er, that you may be abhorred
> Farther than seen, and one infect another
> Against the wind a mile!

... Usenet appears no other thing to me than a foul and pestilent
congregation of posters.

[Roland Perry]

In message <scqino$6q8$1...@dont-email.me>, at 00:09:28 on Fri, 16 Jul
2021, Fevric J. Glandules <f...@invalid.invalid> remarked:

Methinks thou dost protest too much.
--
Roland Perry

[Fevric J. Glandules]

Fie, fie! unknit that threatening unkind brow!

[The Natural Philosopher]

GLENDOWER

I can call spirits from the vasty deep.

HOTSPUR

Why, so can I, or so can any man;
But will they come when you do call for them?

--
“Some people like to travel by train because it combines the slowness of
a car with the cramped public exposure of 
an airplane.”

Dennis Miller