Dew Point Hypothesi(Long)
Tim Kelly
To Those Interested:
The following paper was written several years ago. It was published in
_Geo-Monitor_ Magazine in August of either '94 or '95. I'm not a
"scientist", just a person who lived in Southern California for a number
of years and observed patterns or cycles. One of the patterns was three
days of no dew formation prior to major earthquakes. Though I presented
no data in the paper, I researched the no dew formation scenario for many
of the quakes occurring in Southern California. It was, and is my belief,
that the weather data available shows that what I've presented in the
paper is right. For example, I stated in the paper that charges
accumulate in the air can be pushed out to sea by offshore breezes, then
return to ground through the sea water. If one checks the offshore
earthquakes in Southern California, they are preceded by offshore winds.
Another example, Earthquake lights: the same light that is generated when
one touches a ground in a dry dark room, is probably the same light that
has been documented in _When The Snakes Awake_, Helmut Tributsch.
Something that follows from the hypothesis is that earthquakes follow
population centers. Funny how population centers of LA/San Bernardino and
San Jose/Gilroy have more and larger quakes, than say Parkfield (which is
out in the boonies). Also, Oregon has been increasing in earthquake
frequency in the last ten years (per the FAQ). Could it be tied to the
urban growth? Here's a tidbit before the paper: In my estimation, Hayward
fault should be called the "Has Been" fault. The blanket of smog that
used to cover south bay (when I was growing up on the peninsula) is not
there anymore. Cleaner air means cooler temps; cooler temps means more
dew formation; more dew formation translates to fewer earthquakes.
Observed Natural Events And Hypotheses
Related To The Physics Of Fault-Free Earthquakes
Timothy J. Kelly III
December 13, 1994
ABSTRACT
This paper introduces a set of hypotheses which incorporates many
unexplained events surrounding what shall be defined as Type II
earthquakes (EQ). I propose that rather than only one type of EQ, there
are actually several types of EQs occurring on the planet. Fault-free
EQs are not confined to fault lines, but occur in many diverse locations.
This assertion is based on the inference that Type II EQs are
electromagnetic in nature.
The foundation of the main hypothesis is that the dew formation
process returns previously generated, airborne static electricity to the
ground. This process brings about a regional atmospheric electrical
equilibrium. After approximately three consecutive dewless nights, the
potential for the ultra low frequency radio waves in the atmosphere to
discharge (in a modified vortex shape) to the ground increases greatly.
If the conditions are right (i.e. windless, so that the charges gather),
the electromagnetic vortex, eddy currents, and gravity factors combine to
create vertical movement of the earth at the epicenter, gradually
shifting to a sinusoidal shape as the waveform propagates from the
epicenter. The initial waves, which usually last approximately 40
seconds, terminate after regional atmospheric electrical equilibrium is
attained. If dew forms after one, or two consecutive days of charge
build-up, the atmosphere returns to a state of equilibrium.
In addition to the process of reaching atmospheric electrical
equilibrium by dew formation, several fuzzy elements also alter the
preconditions. These elements have both direct and indirect links to the
process of equalizing regional airborne atmospheric electrical potential.
INTRODUCTION
Namias (1989) noted that low frequency variations might assist in the
triggering of quakes. Jonsson and Vonnegut (1992) created miniature
vortices with the use of a point charge electrode. R.M.C. Lopes, et al
(1990) proposed that the phases, or altitude of the moon at the epicenter
factored into the earthquake triggering process. Stanford's noise
monitoring equipment detected ultra low frequency radio waves (.01 to 10
Hz) near the epicenter of the Loma Prieta EQ. Though seemingly
unrelated, these and several other concepts have been combined to form a
hypothesis which illustrates Type II EQ scenarios. The components of the
main hypothesis, and the issues to be addressed in this paper are: 1) The
Key Factor; 2) The Physics of Type II quakes; 3) Fuzzy Elements; 4)
Undersea EQs and Tsunamis; and 6) Conclusion. As a non-scientist (yet an
astute observer), this presentation may appear simplistic, but a
considerable number of the events have been observed and recorded over
time and are verifiable.
1) THE KEY FACTOR
Dew. It is a commonly held belief that the dew which gathers
overnight comes from water molecules situated close to the ground. I
propose, however, that airborne water molecules with static charges
attached, descend from all levels of the atmosphere during the dew
formation process. When the water molecules return to the ground and form
dew, charged particles return static electricity to the earth where the
initial separation occurred.
These events transpire regularly throughout the year in all regions
of the world. Type II EQs usually occur after three consecutive dewless
nights, when the atmosphere has become highly charged. Because dew point
is a fuzzy element (a combination of temperature, humidity, and
barometric pressure), this hypothesis allows for a range of
temperatures. In cooler climates, when dew point is not achieved, frost
rather than dew doesn't form. Regardless of the temperature, if dew point
is not reached, static charges will remain in the atmosphere. Regarding
colder climate Type II EQ potential, the number of days of static charge
buildup increases because lower temperatures result in less humidity,
leading to less charge in the atmosphere.
A subsequent element related to temperature is the separation of
charge. Higher temperatures can lead to higher humidity, which, in turn,
can allow for more static charged particles in the air. As the daytime
temperature rises, these static charges are able to ascend to higher
altitudes, possibly producing an upward draw on the earth. Tributsch
(1982) recorded a highly unusual episode which took place in 1872. On the
day of, but prior to the Hamada earthquake in Western Honshu, the sea
receded to the degree that people could walk to an island 140 meters from
shore. Stukeley (1750) mentioned a crackling noise in his ceiling for
several days prior to an earthquake in the 1740's. Both of these events
may have been caused by a separation of charges with warmer temperatures
in upper altitudes.
THE PHYSICS OF TYPE II EARTHQUAKES
What is alleged to occur before, during, and after the charge drains
amounts to discharge of an enormous natural capacitor. As static charges
are generated throughout the day in a given region (e.g. L.A. Basin, S.F.
Bay Area) the atmospheric capacitor charges up. When the atmosphere
becomes saturated, the capacitor discharges, and generates a huge
electro-magnetic vortex as the airborne charges return to ground. During
this discharge, the epicenter is being lifted and dropped as the charges
drain back to ground. This activity allegedly produces EQ waves. Many
epicentral locations are reported to be a higher elevation after an EQ
event. When the draining stops, the residual airborne charges continue
their movement in the direction of the epicenter. This effect could lead
to increased Type II aftershocks caused by a concentration of charged
particles in the epicentral area. Type I (ground-based) aftershocks
could also occur where gaps in the strata of the earth caused by the
initial Type II movement collapse, releasing energy in a staccato rather
than rolling fashion.
As a possible explanation of earthquake lights or pillars of light, I
propose that the static electricity returning to the ground, being able
to move much faster than the water molecules to which they are attached,
drag and eventually rip away and leapfrog down from said water molecules.
These vortex lights are the same lights seen in a dark room when
separating blankets, but on a much grander scale. If the vortex has a
small diameter, it may resemble a pillar of light. A characteristically
broad-based vortex may light up the sky for miles around. Both of these
events have been reported during EQ activity.
To coalesce the sound aspect of EQs into this hypothesis, I propose
that the upper levels of the vortex are pulled in various directions
based on the draining of surge charges. Because the draining occurs from
all levels of the atmosphere at once, I assert that, rather than its
usual vortex shape, additional charge drains from the higher altitudes
through the center of the vortex. During the process, I maintain that
when the apex of the vortex is being pulled strongly in one direction by
a surge of lower altitude charge, the vortex may lean, or bow in the
direction of the surge. This condition may produce a megaphone-type
effect which announces the temblor to those in the direction of the
surge. If the epicenter was west of the surge, the noise would travel
east. Those west of the epicenter wouldn't hear warning "groans".
Geographically, if the epicenter was in Glendale, and a surge of charge
came from the San Gabriel Valley, persons working at Caltech may hear
warning groans, those at UCLA would not.
FUZZY ELEMENTS
Several fuzzy elements influence EQ occurrences. These factors
increase, decrease, or eliminate the possibility of Type II EQ activity.
All elements relate either directly or indirectly to charge build-up
process in the atmosphere.
Oceanic influences increase the probability of Type II EQs in several
ways. These influences are: overnight low air temperature, lunar/tides,
pressure changes and a concept called atmospheric e-field dielectric
modification.
Overnight low temperatures in a particular region can register higher
based on several considerations. Consider that a 4:00 am an 8.2 ft. high
tide occurred in the San Francisco Bay Region. The amount of 57-60 degree
ocean water that displaced 40 degree air temperature is considerable.
Because this water radiates heat into the atmosphere, it's reasonable to
infer that overnight low temperatures would be higher than if a low tide
occurred at that early morning hour. This higher overnight low
temperature directly relates to dew point. This inference, when combined
with the fact that coastal regions experience moderate temperatures
because of their proximity to the ocean, may offer an insight as to why
Type II EQs are more prevalent in coastal regions.
To include sea level pressure in the hypothesis, I offer my own
rudimentary description of tidal fluctuations. Consider that after the
aforementioned 4:00 am high tide, the tidal period continued with a low
tide of +2.6 ft. at approximately 9:20 am, followed by a 9.2 ft. high
tide at 4:30 pm. Both the previous, and current day's charges are
combined and compressed in the atmosphere during such a tidal rise. If
the daytime temperature increases, the air can hold more water. All
these elements and conditions combine to create a highly charged
atmosphere during rush hour, when static electricity continues to be
generated. This idea is somewhat analogous to a compression stroke of an
engine. The tidal periods for both the Loma Prieta and the Northridge
quakes were similar to this model.
The final ocean related factor to Type II EQs is atmospheric e-field
dielectric modification. When high tides combine with large swells in
the ocean, the incidence and amount of ocean spray increases. The spray
entering, and remaining in the atmosphere from the break-waters and
sea-walls can increase humidity (another factor of dew point), but more
importantly, I allege it transforms the charged air into a stronger
electrolyte, and therefore increases its conductive capability. I
speculate the salted air acts as fuel and modifies the dielectric
constant of air in that region, hence the term: atmospheric e-field
dielectric modification. Most of the conditions previously presented in
this section, with the possible exception of the dielectric modification,
were in effect before the Loma Prieta EQ.
Though stated previously that the potential for discharge requires
three consecutive days of charge build up, I would like to address
another fuzzy element which allegedly triggered the Loma Prieta quake
after a single dewless night.
Precipitation, hypothetically, can trigger a quake or equalize the
atmosphere just as dew allegedly does. A difference between the Loma
Prieta and most quakes of that size was its short duration. I suspect
the reason for the limited duration is that, rather than three successive
days of charge build up in the atmosphere, an indian summer condition was
in effect for one day. The afternoon of the quake, a small low pressure
system entered the region over the Santa Cruz mountains. When the rain
began to fall, the descending drops accumulated atmospheric charges on
their descent. This trickle effect grew, and eventually returned much of
the airborne charge in 20 seconds of ground movement. I propose that
this trigger effect also occurs in Southern California near Pasadena as
rain enters the Los Angeles Basin from the northwest. If the same Type II
EQ preconditions were in effect in L.A. and rain came from the west over
the ocean, because of the broad front of rain, the charge would return to
the ground gradually along the wide weather front. A possible answer to
the question of ground-to-air lightning relates to the opposite of this
condition. When heavy rains have fallen continuously in a region, charges
are so removed from the air that the earth generates a charge
(ground-to-air lightning) to fill the atmospheric electrical void made by
heavy rains. I would also contend that major metropolitan areas of the
Midwest and Northeast would experience more EQs if the regions didn't
experience the humidity extremes. These extremely humid conditions
remove charges from the air much the same way that heavy rains accomplish
this task. I believe those areas also have higher incidence of lightning
than less humid regions.
The last two elements that influence hypothesized Type II EQs are fog
and wind. Without access to meteorological equipment, I've found that
airports, or BBS lines to weather data to be good sources for wind and
fog information.
Fog can return static electricity to the ground depending on the
altitude, and location of the fog ceiling and floors. If the fog resides
at ground level, the static being generated in that area remains on the
ground. If however, a previous days' charge had risen to higher
altitudes due to higher temperatures, this charge would remain in the
upper atmosphere. This effect could alter the duration of charge buildup
by effectively putting the charge build-up on hold. If the fog extends
from ground level to higher altitudes, the atmospheric electrical
potential equalizes. If the fog floor in not at ground level, charges
generated on the ground ascend into the atmosphere, and into the fog. No
hypothesis as to the results of this condition will be proposed.
Wind is the last fuzzy element. All Type II EQs occur in calm
weather. When the wind blows, the charges disperse. Conversely when the
wind stops the charges gather. If onshore wind conditions are in effect
in Southern California, much of the charge generated in the L.A. basin
travels to the Riverside/San Bernadino area, or moving further, ends up
in the Morongo Valley. Palm Springs, because it's situated behind the
pass, appears to be a location where residual charge remains because of
wind driven eddy currents. In the Bay Area, northerly winds generally
end up near Hollister or San Juan Bautista where the valley ends.
Off-shore winds push static electricity out to sea where the charges may
drain to ground through the sea water.
UNDERSEA EARTHQUAKES AND TSUNAMIS
Early in the course of my study, undersea earthquakes and tsunamis
would not fit into the hypothesis. After developing the main components
of this hypothesis, I questioned whether Type II earthquakes had any
effect either on, or under the ocean. The process for incorporation
undersea EQs and tsunamis into the Type II processes requires one major
supposition: that the ultra-low frequency radio waves were generated on
the ground and therefore must return to an earth ground. The sea water
is not able to diffuse the charge, therefore the charge returns to ground
moving through the salt water.
Off-shore winds push the charges out over the water and they remain
there until they are able to return to ground. The same charged air mass
can move back over land by later on-shore winds, or drain through the sea
water to ground. When the charged air mass drains through the sea water,
the potential for tsunamis greatly increases.
Type II EQ tsunamis occur when the epicenter of an EQ is located in
shallow water, with the major wave moving in the direction of deeper
water. Recently, I modified this portion of the hypothesis due to a
tsunami-generating EQ whose epicenter was in water near Sapporo, Japan.
Previously, I held to an opinion that when the Type II EQ epicenter was
in close proximity to the coastline, the theorized vertical earth
movement generated tsunamis. A simple, yet concise example is the act of
draining water from a child's plastic pool. One needs to pull up several
times on the side to generate several water-draining waves. Similar
waveforms generated on a much grander scale are alleged to be tsunamis.
The proximity factor has since been modified to a depth-of-water factor
after some observations. The tsunami near Sapporo, Japan was generated by
an earthquake in the Sea of Japan. I assert that the EQ's epicenter was
located in shallower water. A calculated guess as to the epicenter's
location is an undersea mountain that almost breaks the sea's surface.
If a Type II EQ allegedly drains in too deep of water, the weight of the
water minimizes vertical movement, as does the fact that the waveform
reflects off surfaces somewhat perpendicular to the source. If the sea
floor is flatter (as in deeper water), no wave reflection occurs, hence
the threat of tsunami activity decreases considerably.
CONCLUSION
Though no Type II data has been presented, I have presented ideas that
incorporate many factors related to Type II earthquakes. Type II
earthquakes:
1. Are generally 3.5 Richter or greater.
2. Caused from static charge buildup in the atmosphere.
3. Discharge similar to a capacitor discharge.
4. Have several fuzzy elements that affect occurrences.
5. Discharge through sea water.
6. Are able to generate tsunamis.
In conclusion, the raw data is easily accessible from a multitude of
sources to those willing to investigate. I am confident that, after an
unbiased examination of this hypothesis, the same conclusions will be
reached. My request is that the hypothesis be known as the Timothy
Hypothesis.
REFERENCES
Jonsson, H.H. and Vonnegut, B., Miniature Vortices Produced By
Electrical Corona, J. Geophys. Res., 1326, 1992
Lopes, R.M.C., Malin, S.R.C., Mazzarella, A., Palumbo, A., Lunar and
solar triggering of earthquakes, Physics of the Earth and Planetary
Interiors., (59), 127-129, 1990
Namias, J., Summer Earthquakes in Southern California Related to
Pressure Patterns at Sea Level and Aloft, J. Geophys. Res., 94(B12),
17,671-17,679, 1989
"National Reports and Forecasts." Los Angeles Times Part II Weather,
Tide Tables, 1985-1991
NOAA, 1991, Southern California Climatological Data, Daily
Temperatures; Various NOAA Fiche, 1991
NOAA, 1992, Southern California Climatological Data, Monthly Summary;
Various NOAA Fiche, 1992
Stukeley, W., The Philosophy of Earthquakes, paper presented to the
Royal Society of London, 1750
Tributsch, H., When The Snakes Awake, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1982
That's All Folks
Tim
Katy Yanda
In article 1...@bashir.peak.org, kel...@peak.org (Tim Kelly) writes:
>To Those Interested:
>
>The following paper was written several years ago. It was published in
>_Geo-Monitor_ Magazine in August of either '94 or '95. I'm not a
>"scientist", just a person who lived in Southern California for a number
>of years and observed patterns or cycles. One of the patterns was three
>days of no dew formation prior to major earthquakes. Though I presented
>no data in the paper, I researched the no dew formation scenario for many
>of the quakes occurring in Southern California. It was, and is my belief,
>that the weather data available shows that what I've presented in the
>paper is right. For example, I stated in the paper that charges
>accumulate in the air can be pushed out to sea by offshore breezes, then
>return to ground through the sea water. If one checks the offshore
>earthquakes in Southern California, they are preceded by offshore winds.
More snipping for the newsreader gestapo
>urban growth? Here's a tidbit before the paper: In my estimation, Hayward
>fault should be called the "Has Been" fault. The blanket of smog that
>used to cover south bay (when I was growing up on the peninsula) is not
>there anymore. Cleaner air means cooler temps; cooler temps means more
>dew formation; more dew formation translates to fewer earthquakes.
>
[Snipped rest of post]
I have been following this dew point discussion for quite a while on
the sidelines. I hate to be the one to tell you this, but the Bay Area
(ahem!) does not have cleaner air. We've had more Air Alerts than
ever. The SJ News just had a headliner about this very problem.
And the Hayward, San Andreas & Calaveras Faults are still active
(hint - we have an earthquake map which is published every week
in the SJ M-News).
Katy
*My employer doesn't talk for me & I don't talk for them.
*Spammers, watch out - I will track you down and your
*ISP will get an earful. Plus any MLM will get forwarded
*to the IRS. <smile>