**** 2/28/26 - Phillips P. OBrien - The USA And Israel Have Started Bombing Iran: A Primer.........
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The USA And Israel Have Started Bombing Iran: A PrimerWhat Do We Know, What Should We Be Asking?, For What Should We Be Watching
Hello All, Well turns out that “obliterating” actually means delaying follow up strikes for 8 months. Last June Trump declared that after one night of strikes the USA had “obliterated” the Iranian nuclear program and then, fascinatingly, after the Israelis wanted to carry on with their bombing campaign, Trump ordered them to turn around and stop. It was one of the most unusual uses of US military force in history; one massive raid and then and end to operations without a clear result. It was also indicative of how Trump has grown to see military operations, which is key to what we are about to see unfold. Phillips’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Though he has campaigned for years on reducing America’s military interventions abroad, and much of his base therefore adopted this belief, Trump has become increasingly enamored of the use of military force within specific limits. He has seen the US military as a way of getting cheap wins, of executing what he can claim are overwhelmingly successful operations and for which he can take credit. It has led him down a very different path than that he had campaigned upon. He now sees using the US military as a real political plus, though he has to do it within certain parameters. He will not want US soldiers to die and he will desperately need to convince the American public that the US of military force is a success. Btw, for those who are new here, I have spent most of my career researching and writing about air and sea power. So this is my area of expertise. If you go back into the substack, you will find numerous pieces on these subjects.
If he can do that, he has become a big supporter of the use of military force. Remember he is laser-focussed on the 2026 elections now. I think we can assume after the events of the last few hours, that he believes a successful military operation to overthrow the Iranian regime will reap him major political benefits. For he certainly does not care about the Iranian people as I wrote about in this piece.
So where are we now? Well, I thought to try and make sense of what we are seeing I would divide the subject into three categories. The first is what do we “know”, the second is what questions should we be asking, and the third is for what to watch. What Do We KnowAs of now we know two thing definitely. They are:
What Should We Be Asking?If we know the US and Israel have massive military force to attack Iran and we know that their purpose is to achieve regime change, what we do not know is how they will do this. Achieving regime change with airpower, even massive airpower, is not easy especially if they want to keep Iranian civilian casualties down. So what we should be asking? Here are three key questions that I can see.
For What To WatchIn some ways this is straightforward, we should be watching out for signs that will help us to answer the three questions above. So first, can they relatively quickly locate and attack Iran’s political leadership. News on success or failure on this should come out pretty soon with political paralysis in Iran or even announcements of leadership deaths. Either the US and Israel have the intelligence and can act on it, or they do not. If they do not have that intelligence or cannot act on it, they will have to use airpower much more broadly, and that carries great risks of mass Iranian casualties and the loss of US personnel. Second look for signs of how the Iranian people and military are reacting. Are there open signs of rebellion or changing sides within military units and are there major political figures in Iran who start working with the USA. On the other hand, would there be people in Iran who start calling for the return of Reza Pahlavi (son of the previous Shah)? Basically are there signs of cracks in the regimes military/intelligence support. As for the people, that will be clear. Will they take to the streets soon and in large numbers. They have repeatedly for years, and repeatedly they have been brutally attacked by their own regime. I am no expert on Iranian public opinion, but in some ways it is the great unknown in this case. Will they react positively to a US-Israeli campaign to change their political structure. Signs that they are willing to do that include mass protests, strikes, even the seizing of government buildings. So that is a quick primer. Air Power is about to have a moment—but who knows how it will go. It will be a question of whether this was well planned, whether contacts were made in Iran and whether the US understands the Iranian public’s feelings. We should start getting indications relatively soon. Thanks for reading Phillips’s Newsletter! This post is public so feel free to share it.
© 2026 Phillips P. OBrien
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