** 2/23/26 - Sheinbaum Kills a Drug Lord and Crosses Her Rubicon.....................
Buzz Sawyer
JP Spinetto is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Latin American business, economic affairs and politics. He was previously Bloomberg News’ managing editor for economics and government in the region.
Murders, torched cars and highway blockades. Bank branches set ablaze on otherwise empty streets. Tourists stranded in resorts in Puerto Vallarta. Classes suspended in at least 13 states.
The killing of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, a.k.a. “El Mencho,” by Mexico’s armed forces on Sunday unleashed a wave of violence across the country. Every time a major cartel loses its boss, the spasm of revenge against the government is followed by bloody internal struggles as major players and their factions move to fill the vacuum.
The reaction underscores the risk that the government of Claudia Sheinbaum took by deciding to decapitate the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, or CJNG, the country’s most powerful criminal organization, which generates billions each year from activities such as drug trafficking and extortion. Yet even as it raises the prospect of sustained violence and cartel infighting in parts of Mexico, as seen in Sinaloa after the removal of Ismael “Mayo” Zambada in 2024, Sheinbaum’s bold move deserves support and recognition.
The Mexican military operation, backed by US intelligence, cements a major turning point in the country’s security strategy since Sheinbaum took office nearly 17 months ago. Deeper security coordination with the US government had already led to the extradition of dozens of cartel leaders, increased drug busts and tougher actions against organized crime, including the recent arrest of the mayor of Tequila and sanctions against a timeshare fraud network, both cases linked to CJNG. Compare that with the “hugs, not bullets” approach of Sheinbaum’s predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador: In 2019, the president known as AMLO aborted a military operation and ordered the release of one of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán’s sons “to avoid putting the population at risk.”
By itself, the so-called kingpin strategy aimed at decapitating drug lords rarely prevents the rise of a new capo even as it triggers violent unrest. Like nature, multibillion-dollar criminal cartels abhor a vacuum. But the Mexican state needed to show that it has the resolve to regain control of parts of the country that criminal networks have terrorized for far too long. With US President Donald Trump increasing the pressure on Mexico and the FIFA World Cup kicking off in little more than three months — Jalisco’s capital Guadalajara hosts four matches — there was no more room for gradualism; this historic operation marks a watershed in the fight against the cartels.
El Mencho wasn’t just another high-flying criminal. He led a rapidly expanding criminal multinational, committed notorious acts of brutality and commanded a private army able to resist multiple attempts to capture him (this video shows the insane level of paramilitary protection he enjoyed). In 2020, he tried to kill Mexico’s top cop, Omar García Harfuch, when Harfuch was Mexico City’s security chief under Mayor Sheinbaum. Since then, ending Mencho’s reign of terror had become a national security imperative, particularly after Trump’s designation last year of CJNG as a foreign terrorist organization. Now Mencho is gone, and three other emblematic Mexican drug lords — Chapo, Mayo and Rafael Caro Quintero — are under US lock and key. The next rising capo may well be recalculating his actuarial odds in this line of business.
The operation is also a win for Sheinbaum in other respects: It shows that bilateral security cooperation with the US can pay off and that she is serious about fighting organized crime. That will win her credit with a Trump administration that has been rough in its treatment of the US’s main trading partner. But we shouldn’t read Sunday’s action just as a result of US pressure. Regardless of Washington’s demands — or applause, in this case — Sheinbaum has her own compelling reasons to take a stand: Insecurity remains Mexicans’ biggest concern, and her party Morena has been under intense scrutiny for alleged links between some of its members and the underworld. “Security remains Sheinbaum’s most effective lever for consolidating power and reshaping political incentives within and across parties,” Rafael Ch, an analyst at Signum Global Advisors, notes.
Beyond the violence it may spark in the coming weeks, taking out the CJNG boss also brings big political challenges for Mexico’s first female president. The ruling leftist movement routinely hammered the government of conservative archenemy Felipe Calderón for pursuing an aggressive security strategy that ratcheted up killings and violence. Now Sheinbaum appears to be taking a similar approach. Its results will define whether this strategy ends up inflaming tensions and divisions within Morena.
For months, Trump has repeatedly said the cartels are running Mexico, in a clear challenge to Sheinbaum’s authority. Sunday’s events show that, even with the government’s many shortcomings, it has the teeth to strike back, reducing the case and pressure for unilateral US military action inside Mexico. Having withdrawn the hugs, Sheinbaum will now have to prove that her long-term crime strategy is more than just bullets.