** 9/15/25 - Your Local Epidemiologist - School shootings, brace for vaccine headlines this week, Covid-19 vaccine access, another measles death, and more.............
Buzz Sawyer
"School shootings: 100 in 2025 so far
Last week, Evergreen High School near Denver became the 100th school shooting this year. It wasn’t labeled a mass shooting (fewer than 4 injuries/deaths), but the trauma is no less real. On the same day, Charlie Kirk was shot to death on a college campus.
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Gun violence is clearly a public health problem in the United States. And, like infectious diseases, it spreads in patterns:
School shootings cluster around transitions in the school calendar (start of year, winter break, year-end). The timing of a Sept/Oct shooting follows this pattern.
Whether it’s a mass shooting or firearm injury, these have outsized impacts on mental health and perceptions of safety.
Firearm injuries are the number one cause of death for U.S. children. This is a distinction no other high-income country shares.
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Since there are patterns in public health, it indicates that the issue’s not random but preventable. There are some things you, as an individual, can do right now to address gun violence. I’ve written about them extensively before:
Practice gun safety.
Hear something, say something. Among school shootings, more than 78% of shooters leaked their plans.
Be cognizant of media.
But in the end, the thing that makes the most impact is policy. We’ve been here before with other massive challenges, like smoking and car crashes, and we’ve been able to do unimaginable things and save millions of lives when we approach problems with a public health lens. There is bipartisan support for many common-sense gun policies, including background checks and red flag laws.
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And policy change works. For example, states with the strictest gun laws have fewer deaths than states with more permissive gun laws, as shown in a recent JAMA Pediatrics study. This was after controlling for several other factors. My friend and colleague was one of the principal authors and wrote more commentary on this in detail here.
While policy proposals tend to fall short, they make progress and inch us forward to a safer world. Change is possible, and we need to fight for it.
School shootings, brace for vaccine headlines this week, Covid-19 vaccine access, another measles death, and more.The Dose (September 15)
Last week was my first grader’s back-to-school night. I found myself sitting in those tiny chairs, scanning the classroom. As I admired the adorable drawings on the walls and watched my daughter try to spell “bestie” in her notebook, I was calculating risk: where her desk was, how close it sat to the door, and what that might mean if a mass shooter walked onto campus. I hate that my mind went there, but it did. And as a parent, I know I’m not alone. The very next day, news broke of another school shooting—the 100th this year— overshadowed by the separate campus shooting that killed Charlie Kirk. This week’s Dose covers not only the waves of disease and vaccine news (and there’s a lot!), but also another public health crisis: the reality that gun violence is a public health problem in the United States, and guns are the number one killer of children. Public health is about protecting health and safety in every sense. The reality is stark, but change is possible. Infectious disease “weather report”Covid-19: Wastewater levels, a key indicator of community spread, are now “high.” Encouragingly, infections appear to be slowing in Florida and Hawaii, the leaders of this wave, suggesting the national peak may be near. Other metrics, like emergency department visits for Covid-19 and the number of positive tests, have already started decreasing.
The common cold (gray line) is also experiencing a significant spike.
Everything else is quiet still:
What does this mean for you? If you’re sick, it’s most likely the cold or Covid-19. It’s safest to continue to mask in indoor crowded areas. If you start to feel sick, stay home. To get ahead of the flu and RSV, plan for your vaccine (and other fall vaccines) with our 2025 guide to fall vaccines. Another measles death: A sobering reminderLos Angeles County reported the tragic death of a school-aged child from a complication of measles.
The CDC still lists three measles deaths this year. It’s unclear whether they will add this delayed case to official counts. Ultimately, this is a heartbreaking reminder of one reason we vaccinate: to protect those who cannot protect themselves. This type of story will be increasingly important to elevate to neighbors and communities if (and when) more states drop vaccination requirements for schools. See more from CA YLE Matt Willis here. And, if you’re a grandparent, consider joining Grandparents for Vaccines grassroots effort. Learn more here! Covid vaccine access: States to the rescue (mostly)As of Friday, 16 states have acted to preserve Covid-19 vaccine access by ensuring pharmacists can keep administering shots. This matters: over 90% of Americans get vaccinated at pharmacies. States are improvising because many laws tie access to federal guidance, and this year federal decisions are not following the best science. Some states are now exclusively relying on professional organizations, like the American Academy of Pediatrics, who continue to use transparent, evidence-informed practices. So far, we’ve seen:
What we’re hearing from you: Confusion is everywhere. More than 200 of you shared stories, from all 50 states. Many are incredibly frustrating to read:
With permission, we compiled these stories into a congressional brief sent to senators and professional societies last week. Keep sharing your stories here. Expect even more vaccine headlines this weekThere will be two key developments in the vaccine policy space this week:
Why this meeting will spark confusion Beyond the decisions themselves (and implications for access), expect a wave of rumors and falsehoods online and in conversations with your family and friends. Last time, this ACIP committee—hand-picked by RFK Jr.—flat out ignored scientific evidence or consensus. There’s little reason to think this meeting will be any different, so scientists, policymakers, and communicators are bracing for chaos. We already have a preview. On Friday, The Washington Post reported that ACIP plans to discuss reports of 25 pediatric Covid-19 deaths using VAERS (the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System). VAERS is an important tool for spotting early safety signals, but it has significant limitations:
This is why VAERS is often misused by vaccine skeptics to cast doubt on safe vaccines. I would not be surprised if this committee leans on VAERS in the same way—to justify pulling Covid-19 vaccines off the market for pediatric patients. What this means for you: Until the votes are final, the exact impact is hard to predict. But you can expect a flood of headlines and social media chatter this week—much of it a mix of rumors and falsehoods, amplified by misuse of data like VAERS. I’ll be back as quickly as possible to help sort through what’s fact, what’s spin, and what it means for your health and your family. School shootings: 100 in 2025 so farLast week, Evergreen High School near Denver became the 100th school shooting this year. It wasn’t labeled a mass shooting (fewer than 4 injuries/deaths), but the trauma is no less real. On the same day, Charlie Kirk was shot to death on a college campus. Gun violence is clearly a public health problem in the United States. And, like infectious diseases, it spreads in patterns:
Since there are patterns in public health, it indicates that the issue’s not random but preventable. There are some things you, as an individual, can do right now to address gun violence. I’ve written about them extensively before:
But in the end, the thing that makes the most impact is policy. We’ve been here before with other massive challenges, like smoking and car crashes, and we’ve been able to do unimaginable things and save millions of lives when we approach problems with a public health lens. There is bipartisan support for many common-sense gun policies, including background checks and red flag laws.
And policy change works. For example, states with the strictest gun laws have fewer deaths than states with more permissive gun laws, as shown in a recent JAMA Pediatrics study. This was after controlling for several other factors. My friend and colleague was one of the principal authors and wrote more commentary on this in detail here. While policy proposals tend to fall short, they make progress and inch us forward to a safer world. Change is possible, and we need to fight for it. Bottom lineStay safe and brace for a noisy week of vaccine headlines. I’ll be back with more and what it means for your health and your family. And if you find yourself at a back-to-school night, I hope your thoughts linger more on joy than mine did—on the art taped to the walls, the messy handwriting, the little sparks of hope sitting in those tiny chairs, and ultimately the future of our nation. Love, YLE Upcoming YLE webinar on fall vaccinesThis week will be chaotic on the vaccine front (see more below). To help cut through the noise, join me and Chelsea Cipriano of the Common Health Coalition next Monday for a live webinar on fall vaccines: the who, what, when, where, and why of fall vaccination. Paid subscribers can register below. ... Subscribe to Your Local Epidemiologist to unlock the rest.Become a paying subscriber of Your Local Epidemiologist to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content. A subscription gets you:
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