*** 7/11/24 - Key Takeaways From the 2024 NATO Summit + When will Ukraine join NATO? Its road to membership could be blocked if Donald Trump becomes president + related NATO documents
Buzz Sawyer
issued by the Heads of State and Government participating in the
Pledge of Long-Term Security Assistance for Ukraine
1. Today, we affirm our unwavering commitment to Ukraine as a sovereign, democratic, independent state. To deliver that, Ukraine requires our long-term support. Since the start of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, Allies have provided unprecedented political, economic, military, financial, and humanitarian support, including military assistance amounting to roughly €40 billion annually. Allies have also made their defence industrial capacity available to support Ukraine’s needs. All of this is having a substantial effect, enabling the Ukrainians to defend effectively and inflict real and severe costs on Russia.
2. We affirm our determination to support Ukraine in building a force capable of defeating Russian aggression today and deterring it in the future. To that end, we intend to provide a minimum baseline funding of €40 billion within the next year, and to provide sustainable levels of security assistance for Ukraine to prevail, taking into account Ukraine's needs, our respective national budget procedures, and the bilateral security agreements which Allies have concluded with Ukraine. Heads of State and Government will re-evaluate Allied contributions at future NATO Summits, starting at the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague.
3. Our commitment extends to costs related to the provision of military equipment, assistance, and training for Ukraine, including:
- Purchase of military equipment for Ukraine;
- In-kind support donated to Ukraine;
- Costs related to maintenance, logistics and transportation of military equipment for Ukraine;
- Costs for military training for Ukraine;
- Operational costs associated with provision of military support to Ukraine;
- Investments in and support for Ukraine's defence infrastructure and defence industry;
- All contributions to NATO Trust Funds for Ukraine, including non-lethal aid.
4. All Allied support for Ukraine according to the above criteria would count, whether delivered through NATO, bilateral, multilateral, or by any other means. To support fair burden-sharing, Allies will aim to meet this pledge through proportional contributions, including by taking into account their share of Alliance GDP.
5. Allies will report to NATO on support delivered in relation to this pledge twice per year, with the first report to include contributions delivered after 1 January 2024. Based on this, the Secretary General will provide an overview of all notified contributions to Allies.
6. In addition to military support covered by this pledge, Allies intend to continue providing political, economic, financial, and humanitarian support to Ukraine.
Key Takeaways From the 2024 NATO Summit
Western allies doubled down on their commitments to Ukraine and efforts to rebuff Russian military threats.
World Brief newsletter writerAlexandra Sharp
By Alexandra Sharp, the World Brief writer at Foreign Policy.Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at NATO’s Ukraine security promises, South Korea building military lasers, and a full cabinet turnover in Kenya.
Ukraine’s ‘Irreversible’ Path to NATO
The 2024 NATO summit concluded in Washington on Thursday with a resounding call for greater efforts to protect Ukraine. Kyiv is on an “irreversible” path to membership, the bloc formally declared on Wednesday—one that will kick off once its war against Russia ends.
In the interim, NATO announced a series of steps aimed at bolstering Ukraine’s defenses. The alliance said it would provide at least $43 billion in military aid to Kyiv within the next year, but it stopped short of a multiyear commitment that NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg advocated for. The United States, Denmark, and the Netherlands revealed that they have sent the first batch of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, which should be in the skies later this summer. Poland said it will train a unit of Ukrainians living in Poland to be deployed back to Kyiv. And NATO confirmed plans to establish a new command center in Germany aimed at coordinating arms and training logistics for Ukraine.
“We can and will defend every inch of NATO territory, and we will do it together,” U.S. President Joe Biden said on Wednesday. France, Germany, Italy, and Poland agreed on Thursday to jointly develop long-range cruise missiles to address a gap in European defenses that Russia’s war in Ukraine has exposed. And Washington announced on Wednesday that it plans to start deploying longer-range weapons—including Tomahawk, SM-6, and hypersonic missiles—to Germany in 2026.
Despite efforts to counter Russia’s military influence, though, NATO reiterated on Wednesday that it “does not seek confrontation, and poses no threat to Russia,” adding that the alliance remains willing to “maintain channels of communication with Moscow to mitigate risk and prevent escalation.”
Russia was not the only focus of NATO’s ire this week. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol argued on Thursday that the Kremlin’s close ties with North Korea are a “stark reminder of the fact that the European security and the Indo-Pacific security are indivisible.” And on Wednesday, the alliance criticized China for being a “decisive enabler” of Moscow’s war efforts, demanding that Beijing cease all shipments of weapons components and other technological parts that are critical for Russia to rebuild its military.
China “cannot enable the largest war in Europe in recent history without this negatively impacting its interests and reputation,” NATO warned in its official summit communique, though it did not specify what the repercussions would be. For Washington’s part, though, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said the United States would continue to impose sanctions on Chinese entities involved in aiding Russia’s effort.
To end the multiday summit, Biden will hold a rare, high-stakes solo press conference on Thursday, where his ability to engage with reporters and answer questions clearly will be closely watched by his domestic political allies and opponents as well as the United States’ foreign allies and adversaries. It will be his first time facing the press alone since November, and it comes amid growing calls for Biden to end his reelection campaign after a poor debate performance in late June raised serious concerns about his stamina and mental acuity. Nine Democratic House members and one Democratic senator have urged Biden to step aside thus far.
When will Ukraine join NATO?
Its road to membership could be blocked if Donald Trump becomes president
photograph: getty imagesNato’s leaders gathered in Washington this week to overcome a big gap in their Ukraine strategy—between the principle that Ukraine is free to join the alliance with no veto by Russia and the reality that few are ready to let it in while it is at war with Russia. That proved impossible, so nato made do with lots of smaller commitments of weapons, money and training, and many warm words for Ukraine.
A twisted metaphor stood out: the allies had built “a bridge” to nato membership. This was a “strong, robust, well-lit” thing, declared Antony Blinken, the American secretary of state, adding that it was “short”, too. In their communiqué, moreover, the allies declared that Ukraine’s progress towards nato was “irreversible”.
Diplomatic phrases cannot stop the brutality of a war now in its third year. Arriving in Washington for what was intended to be a celebration of nato’s 75th birthday, leaders were greeted by news of a Russian missile strike on a children’s hospital in Kyiv on July 8th. Of some comfort in the short term were weapons for air defences. Allies announced they would provide five more medium-range systems—four American-made Patriot missile batteries and one Franco-Italian samp/t system. America, Denmark and the Netherlands were also delivering f-16 fighter jets that would soon be flying over Ukraine. There was no sign, however, that America was yet prepared to let Ukraine use atacms missiles to strike at airfields deep inside Russia.
nato promised to provide at least €40bn ($43bn) in military aid in the coming year—short of the multi-year support several allies had advocated. About 20-odd countries have signed their long-term bilateral security assistance deals with Ukraine. The summit also decided to transfer part of the job of co-ordinating arms supplies and training for Ukraine from the Pentagon to a new nato headquarters.
The leaders celebrated the longevity of the alliance. Born in the cold war, it has become the world’s most enduring military pact, outlasting even the Delian League of ancient Greek city-states, noted Jens Stoltenberg, the outgoing secretary-general. In an echo of the cold war, America and Germany announced that, from 2026, America would begin “episodic deployments” of new long-range missiles for exercises in Germany. They include sm-6, Tomahawk and “developmental” hypersonic weapons with a range that would have been banned under the now-defunct Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty.
All this highlights the fact that nato membership remains a binary question. Some countries are allies, enjoying the protection of Article 5, which holds that an attack on one is an attack on all, backed by America’s conventional and nuclear might. And other countries are not allies. nato leaders were at pains to say that all the help they are giving Ukraine does not “make nato a party to the conflict.” For Mr Stoltenberg, membership is for the day after the war, to seal any peace.
nato’s promises about Ukraine’s future were weakened by caveats, for example, the demand that it make further “democratic, economic and security reforms”. Moreover, Ukraine would be invited to join nato only “when allies agree and conditions are met”. The biggest ally, President Joe Biden, is anyhow sceptical. Earlier this year he said he opposed “the natoisation of Ukraine”. In his opening speech he did not mention Ukraine’s membership at all.
Given Mr Biden’s political weakness at home, all know that Ukraine’s road to membership is all too reversible if Donald Trump returns to the White House. The Republicans’ presumptive nominee has criticised aid to Ukraine. Moreover, if Mr Trump is serious about his threat not to protect allies who don’t spend enough on defence, there might not be much of an alliance left for Ukraine to join.
The spectre of Mr Trump haunted the summit. Mr Biden invoked the spirit of Ronald Reagan, an earlier Republican icon, to underscore the importance of the alliance. Mr Stoltenberg attributed to Mr Trump the surge of allies—23 of the 32—who would reach or exceed the target of spending 2% of gdp on defence this year. “The clear message has had an impact,” he said. The transfer of logistical and training functions to nato was intended in part to protect the process from the whims of a second Trump administration. The idea of providing long-term assistance to Ukraine is intended to tell the Kremlin it cannot outlast nato, for instance by holding out for Mr Trump to impose a diplomatic settlement favourable to Russia.
The broader pitch to Republicans is that nato is central to America’s global power and its effort to confront China. The nato summit—which was to be joined by leaders from Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand—expressed “profound concern” about China and issued a stern warning about its support for Russia’s military industry. China, they said, could not “enable the largest war in Europe in recent history without this negatively impacting its interests and reputation”.