^ 4/23/26 - Pete Saunders - The Shifting Midwestern Narrative...
Buzz Sawyer
The Shifting Midwestern NarrativeSeems like a new narrative of the Midwest might be catching up to the facts on the ground.
A view of Traverse City, MI and Grand Traverse Bay in northern Michigan. Traverse City sits in the middle of a broad swath of northern Michigan that’s seen steady population growth in recent years. Source: gettyimages.com Four recent perspectives on the Midwest got my attention. Alan Ehrenhalt’s article in Governing Magazine spoke of the comeback of Midwestern cities. He kicked off the article with this interesting fact: “Which metro area would you suppose had the highest population growth rate in the past five years — Phoenix or Des Moines? It’s not exactly a trick question: Phoenix comes out ahead. But not by much. The Phoenix metro area gained a little more than 7 percent in that five-year period, but unlikely Des Moines was close behind, at nearly 6.7 percent. That’s not all the provocative news about the Iowa city. Going back a decade, Des Moines has been the fastest growing metro area in the Midwest. Its real GDP increased by more than 30 percent. Employment in those years was up 13.3 percent, first among its Midwest peer urbanized areas.” Late last month in another article by Diana Lind, author/publisher of the New Urban Order Substack newsletter, Lind says the Midwest is primed to excel in a rapidly changing demographic landscape for the nation: “Within that context of flat population (growth) and zero immigration, I think the Midwest will become the fastest growing region of the country by the end of the decade. Housing is still much cheaper there — average housing costs in Ohio are about half the cost of housing in Florida. Then there were two threads on X/Twitter that were related to the Midwest revival theme. First, while not mentioning the Midwest specifically, Richard Florida acknowledges that America’s economic geography is shifting due to high living costs, taxes and rigid regulatory environments in coastal cities. A few snippets from Florida’s thread make the case:
And while Florida doesn’t mention Midwestern cities specifically, in another thread he suggests they stand to benefit from the shift:
Finally, a conservative Twitter user discovers the Great Lakes region and finds it’s nothing like his overall perception of the Midwest. He finds it very New England-y:
So, what exactly is happening in the Midwest? What does this all mean? In a big picture sense, I think it means more eyes are considering the Midwest as a viable option. After 60-70 years of our nation’s attention focused on the cities and economies of the West Coast, then the Sun Belt, then the East Coast, people are considering the nation’s middle again. I look at it this way. The greater Midwest and its five subregions have changed a lot in the last 60-70 years. The large manufacturing centers on the Great Lakes lost thousands of jobs and people over the years, but they’ve steadily adapted and rebounded. Same goes for small and midsize agricultural centers, state capitals and river cities in the Heartland, Midland Valley and Plains subregions. More people are realizing that the sublime natural scenery of northern Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota, dotted with quaint towns and villages and the quiet lifestyle they offer, really are like what you might find in New Hampshire, Vermont and upstate New York. And all of it is available with an unbeatable level (compared to the coasts) of affordability. This is all new to people who’ve spent my lifetime intently focused on other regions in America. I’m glad more people are finding out there’s more than smokestacks and cornfields in the nation’s midsection. I’m often reminded of the term “mesofacts” and the role they play in our perceptions of place. Five years ago, I wrote that slow-moving changes in place narratives can positively and negatively impact places: “(M)esofacts are facts that were once true but no longer are. Pittsburgh, for example, was for nearly a century a dominant steel-producing city, full of prosperous blue-collar workers and grit. But steel collapsed and Pittsburgh learned to rely on other assets, such as the robotics and biotech research coming out of its strong higher education institutions, to survive and recover. Pittsburgh shifted over time. But the city’s perception as a blue-collar steel town, even among its public officials and residents, lasted much longer than its reality, and to its disadvantage. Mesofacts can work in the opposite direction, too. Los Angeles was able to trade on its reputation as a place to live the California Dream long after its ability to fulfill it to the masses. People were drawn to the area for its weather and its wealth of opportunities in manufacturing, media and entertainment. While many transplants did make it, many more did not and Los Angeles became somewhat a victim of its own success. Decades of explosive population growth have ended. Its auto, aerospace and other industries have declined. Los Angeles County’s homeless population is second only to New York City’s. And a significant share of film and TV production has moved elsewhere in search of lower costs.” Is a Midwest boom in the making? I don’t think so, and I’m not sure most already in the region would want one. Booms have happened in the past here, and we learned that they’re usually followed by busts. But I think an economic and demographic climate is emerging that favors what our region offers, not to mention actual climate changes that will make our freshwater security more attractive with every passing year. The Midwest is the one region of America that can embrace the proverb that “slow and steady wins the race”. I suspect 50 years from now, that’s what we’ll be known for. You're currently a free subscriber to The Corner Side Yard. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription.
© 2026 Pete Saunders
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