Stratfor.com Israel: Preparations for a Major Assault on Lebanon
dontcowerfromthetruth
What is included below seems to be right in accordance with the 'A
Clean Break' agenda as Israel was advised to put such an agenda into
play back in 1996:
'A Clean Break' (scroll down to pages 261-269 of from James Bamford's '
A Pretext for War' book at the following URL):
http://www.warwithoutend.co.uk/zone0/viewtopic.php?t=28769
Israel crosses the line (A Clean Break' mentioned in this article as
well):
http://www.antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=9301
Jeff Blankfort wrote:
With the White House and money-hungry Congress reduced to silence by
the
Israel lobby in this election year, Israel apparently believes that it
can do as it will in Lebanon as it did when it last invaded Lebanon in
1982. No one should be so confused as to think that Israel is acting as
a proxy for the US and that this latest Israeli war crime serves US
regional interests any more than does its crimes against humanity in
Gaza.
What, if any, will be the response of the US anti-war movement? Will it
support the Hizbollah-led resistance to Israeli aggression?
A MUST READ
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Israel: Preparations for a Major Assault on Lebanon
July 13, 2006 21 53 GMT
Summary
After days of markedly increasing tensions between the Israeli
government and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, Israeli forces
are preparing to launch a major assault against Lebanon to
attempt to eradicate the militants.
Analysis
The Israel Defense Forces is preparing for a major, sustained
assault into southern Lebanon to eliminate the Lebanese militant
group Hezbollah. The assault will extend at least to the Litani
River -- the first natural barrier, roughly 20 miles into
Lebanon -- and possibly all the way to areas south of Beirut.
The advance might have been intended for July 16, when the
reservists of the Israeli Northern Command who were just
activated will have had 72 hours to spin up. However, since
rockets fired from Lebanon hit Israel's port city of Haifa on
July 13, Israel's 7th Armored, Golani and Barak Brigades -- some
of the elite and most decorated units of the regular Israeli
army -- might push ahead as far as the Litani and let the
reservists catch up later.
If the IDF makes this push into Lebanon, the Golani Brigade
likely will advance in the east, along the Syrian border to the
Bekaa Valley. Its advance probably will be accompanied by air
assaults delivering infantry units to the villages at the
valley's base. Penetrating the more populated areas further up
the valley will involve difficult, urban fighting.
The Barak Brigade, which received the state-of-the-art Merkava
Mark 3 tank in 2005, will advance up the coast along a difficult
and potentially mined highway. A Merkava tank was already
destroyed by a mine July 12 containing a powerful charge that
could have been shaped to penetrate heavy armor. If this is the
case, it almost certainly came from foreign sources, either Iran
or beyond.
The 7th Armored Brigade will advance up the middle, ready to
reinforce either the left or right flank. It also could
encounter mines. Besides anti-tank mines, Hezbollah is thought
to possess anti-tank missiles more advanced than the 1970s-era
Soviet AT-3 Sagger anti-tank missile. If Hezbollah's arsenal is
sufficiently advanced and properly employed, it could
effectively challenge Israeli armor.
The longer the IDF waits to push into Lebanon, and the more
brigades it amasses, the more likely the Israelis are planning
to drive all the way into areas south of Beirut. A push to the
Litani would involve about five brigades; a deeper invasion
would involve seven to 12.
There will be, at the very minimum, heavy Suppression of Enemy
Air Defenses operations by the Israeli air force (IAF) along the
Syrian border. The IAF will at least heavily jam Syrian radar
and employ all the electronic countermeasures it has. If Syria
does not make a compelling public statement of abstaining from
involvement in the conflict, the IAF will likely make a
pre-emptive strike against the Syrian air defense network, which
Israeli planes successfully penetrated in June, buzzing Syrian
President Bashar al Assad's private residence.
Despite the political stunt flyby, Syria's air defense network
is still amply equipped and its air force boasts, among other
aircraft, 80 MiG-29 and 10 Su-27 fighters. Operationally, Syria
has always crumbled when it faced the IDF, and its air defense
and pilot training regimens are certainly below par. But
nevertheless, Syria's air defense network extends over much of
southern Lebanon and poses a very real danger to IAF operations
over Lebanon. Israel successfully devastated this air force in
1982 in a pre-emptive strike. If the Israelis decide that Syria
might resist their efforts in Lebanon, Israel will not hesitate
to take the network out. A devastating pre-emptive strike is
preferable to a protracted engagement with the whole air defense
network at full alert -- a much more complex endeavor that would
detract from operations in Lebanon. As long as the Israelis
leave Syrian assets intact, they fight with an exposed right flank.
The near future will almost certainly see small firefights as
Israeli special forces reconnaissance units take up more
positions inside Lebanon. Of course, the bulk of these units
will go undetected. IDF shelling and airstrikes will continue
unabated. Depending on Hezbollah's endurance and survivability,
their rockets will continue to fly as well.
As its forces gather and reservists kick into high gear, Israel
stands on the verge of attempting to completely annihilate
Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.