Bob Brinker's Roller-Coaster Marketimer Model Portfolios

[honeybee]

November 5, 2010....Bob Brinker's model portfolios have been doing
quite well since this current bull market began March 10, 2009.
However, because of the very skeery roller-coaster ride they took
during the mega-bear market, they are still underwater from the market
all-time-high.

Bob Brinker certainly was correct when he said that he's a long-term
investor. Brinker has made no changes to his model portfolio asset
allocations since he returned his equity allocations to fully invested
positions on March, 2003.

On the other hand, Brinker likes to brag about any shorter-term market-
timing calls that he has made which were successful (while ignoring
the flops).

July 1, 2010, Brinker finally got one right when he recommended S&P
500 Index as an outright-buy at 1030. That was the latest in a long
line of Brinker's outright-buys from 2008-2009 that had flopped
because the market kept dropping after he made them.

Now let's take a look at how Brinker's fully invested model portfolios
did, beginning at the market's all-time-high, going down to the bear
market bottom and back up to today.

Brinker's market "timing model" did not see the bear coming, or
recognize it as it was happening. Therefore, he never raised any cash
reserves before or during it (he issued repeated buy signals
throughout the bear. See the chart below).

Portfolio I: October, 2007, stock market all-time high:
$302,561...March, 2009 Megabear market bottom: $143,938...November,
2010: $259,036

Portfolio II: October, 2007, stock market all-time high:
$241,994...March, 2009 Megabear market bottom: $119,105...November,
2010: $215,507

Portfolio III: October, 2007, stock market all-time high:
$219,263...March, 2009 Megabear market bottom: $147,013...November,
2010: $216,010 (Portfolio III is a balanced portfolio, recommended for
conservative investors.)

Currently, Brinker's market-timing advice is to dollar-cost-average
new money. As of November 1st, his S&P target range is 1300 - 1350.

Chart showing all of Brinker's "outright buy" levels courtesy of Kirk
Lindstrom. Please click to enlarge:


“We have long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make
fortune-tellers look good. Even now, Charlie (Munger) and I continue
to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be
kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-
ups who behave in the market like children.”__Warren Buffet

Jenny, Bailey, Annie and Little Lucy enjoy the Doggie beach at West
Cliff Drive, Santa Cruz.

http://honeysbobbrinkerbeehivebuzz2.blogspot.com/