Rasmussen, the Only Poll that Matters
By David Weigel 2/18/09 12:30 AM
Scott Rasmussen of Rasmussen Reports
Last week, as they’ve done every week for nearly two years, New Jersey-
based Rasmussen Reports cycled a question about Congress into its
nightly political tracking poll. Over two nights, around 1000 voters
(they must be voters, or say they are, to be included in the poll)
were asked by an automated, voice-activated pollster whether they they
would support a Democratic candidate or a Republican candidate for
Congress, were the election held today.
The result was surprisingly close. Only 40 percent of the voters who
talked to Rasmussen Reports said they’d support the Democrats, while
39 percent said they’d support the Republicans. “Are Republicans
winning the public relations battle over spending in the $800-billion-
plus economic stimulus package?” asked company founder and publisher
Scott Rasmussen in the company’s news release. “This marks the lowest
level of support for the Democrats in tracking history and is the
closest the two parties have been on the generic ballot.”
The question, the result, and the carnival barker spin-all are
trademarks of Rasmussen Reports, a pollster that has become ubiquitous
in the conversation of Republicans and conservative pundits. It is not
a partisan polling firm, and it is not hired to ask partisan questions
the way that, for example, John Zogby was hired to test the mocking
anti-Obama questions of a conservative radio host. Rasmussen is
influential because its carefully crafted questions that produce
answers that conservatives like — 59 percent of voters agreeing with
Ronald Reagan’s view of big government, a 10-point plurality of voters
trusting their economic judgment over President Obama’s — are
bolstered by highly accurate campaign polling. The result is that
polls with extremely favorable numbers for Republican stances leap
into the public arena every week, quickly becoming accepted wisdom.
Rasmussen and three members of his staff meet every morning to discuss
what questions they can add to their daily tracking polls of politics,
consumer confidence, and consumer spending. “If you were working at an
old newspaper,” explained Rasmussen in a Monday telephone interview,
“you’d ask a question and assign reporters to find out what people
were thinking. That’s what we do with our polls; we say, let’s take
the temperature of this issue or that issue.”
While those news-cycle-dependent questions bring plenty of attention
to the company, the rolling congressional “generic ballot” poll
provided a good example of Rasmussen’s influence. On “The Beltway
Boys,” the Saturday evening Fox News show that Weekly Standard editor
Fred Barnes co-hosts with Mort Kondracke, Barnes cited Rasmussen as
proof that Republicans were winning the stimulus message war. “Look
where Republicans come out,” said Barnes. “They come out one point
behind the Democrats. The Democrats have only a one-point lead!”
On Sunday, Cokie Roberts cited the same numbers to explain to her
fellow “This Week” panelists why Republicans opposed the stimulus.
“They’re… looking at polls that are showing them about even with
Democrats in the generic congressional match up,” said Roberts.
Neither she nor Barnes cited Rasmussen by name — the polling result,
mentioned frequently by Republicans, had become part of conventional
wisdom.
Other pollsters, whose results sometimes vary greatly from
Rasmussen’s, respect the rival firm’s process and its ability to grab
headlines. Brent Goldrick, a vice president at Financial Dynamics who
conducts the monthly Hotline-Diageo poll, was surprised at the
closeness of Rasmussen’s generic ballot poll. His most recent poll,
conducted in the days after President Barack Obama’s inauguration,
gave Democrats a 46-22 lead in the Congressional generic ballot, and
gave Democrats in Congress an approval rating 23 points higher than
the Republicans. “As the Republicans have become a little more engaged
in the policy debate,” said Goldrick, “it doesn’t surprise me that
numbers would come up from 22 percent.”
It’s hard for pollsters to knock Rasmussen’s accuracy, especially its
election polling. The final pre-election Hotline-Diageo poll had given
Barack Obama a 50-45 point lead over John McCain, while the final
Rasmussen Reports poll gave Obama a 52-46 lead. Both were close to the
result, but Rasmussen was closest.
But where Rasmussen Reports really distinguishes itself, and the
reason it’s so often cited by conservatives, is in its issue polling.
Before the stimulus debate began, Rasmussen asked voters whether
they’d favor stimulus plans that consisted entirely of tax cuts or
entirely of spending. Tax cuts won every time, and Republicans began
citing this when they argued for a tax-cut-only stimulus package.
Every week that the economic stimulus package was being debated by
Congress, Rasmussen asked voters whether they “favor[ed] or oppose[ed]
the economic recovery package proposed by Barack Obama and the
Congressional Democrats.” While other pollsters, such as Gallup and
CBS News, found stimulus support rising as high as 60 percent,
Rasmussen never saw it rise above 45 percent. It was the only pollster
to find support for the plan falling below opposition, in a poll
conducted on February 2 and 3. Not only did Bill Kristol get an early
look at the data and use it to make the case against the plan,
Republicans such as Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) cited Rasmussen to argue
that support for the Democratic version of the stimulus was tumbling.
At a Feb. 10 briefing, Pence quibbled with a reporter who cited Gallup
instead of Rasmussen.
“If we’re gonna talk polls for a minute,” said Pence, “and in the
communications shop at a conference we occasionally look at polls, is
support for the stimulus bill has been dropping ever week since it was
first introduced. I expect there’ll be more polls that come out that
demonstrate that public support is continuing to drop using the same
methods and the same research.” A poll being conducted that day and
the day after would actually reveal that President Obama’s campaign
for the stimulus was driving its support back up into the mid-40s.
Still, the Rasmussen poll, buttressing other media polls that showed
stimulus support lagging the president’s own ratings, was invaluable
to Republican arguments that they were standing with the country
against an unpopular bill.
Scott Rasmussen is well aware of how Republicans use his polling to
make their arguments. “Republicans right now are citing our polls more
than Democrats because it’s in their interest to do so,” he said on
Monday. “I would not consider myself a political conservative — that
implies an alignment with Washington politics that I don’t think I
have.”
But in the early days of his polling firm, when it was named Rasmussen
Research, Rasmussen balanced a cold analysis of politics and consumer
opinion with advocacy for some conservative views. For a short time
around the 2000 elections he wrote a column for WorldNetDaily, once
arguing that President Bill Clinton had “ratified the Reagan
Revolution” by declaring the end of big government in Clinton’s 1996
State of the Union speech. “From that moment forward,” wrote
Rasmussen, “both Republicans and Democrats began to fight over their
policy differences within the political framework created by America’s
voters and articulated by President Reagan.”
In other columns, and in a 2001 company-published book titled A Better
Deal! Social Security Choice, Rasmussen made the case for privatizing
the nation’s oldest entitlement program. “In fact, 46 percent of
American adults say that relying on the government is riskier than
letting workers invest for their own retirement,” wrote Rasmussen in a
Jan. 10, 2001 column arguing that incoming President Bush should push
for private accounts. “Just 36 percent say letting workers invest is
more risky, while 18 percent are not sure.” In the book — not a huge
seller, but promoted by Rasmussen at an August appearance at the
libertarian Cato Institute — the pollster argued that “giving workers
more control over their ‘contributions’ will put the ‘Security’ back
in Social Security.”
Since then, Rasmussen’s business has boomed, aided in no small part by
those “newspaper” questions that are blasted out to reporters and
frequently buck up the Republican spin of the week. “Every pollster
wants to promote his own research,” said Brent Goldrick. “It makes
sense for Rasmussen to promote questions that are more newsworthy.”
That was the take of Phil Kerpen, the policy director at Americans for
Prosperity, a political advocacy group that collected more than
400,000 signatures of opposition to the stimulus. “He’s cited more
frequently than other pollsters because he does more than anybody
else,” said Kerpen. “His numbers are at least as accurate as anyone
else’s. I think it was helpful to us when it looked like there was a
big shift in public opinion against the stimulus. We definitely used
it to give our activists some more encouragement.”
Scott Rasmussen couldn’t say whether his polls played a key role in
the stimulus debate — after all, the bill passed. “But there have been
times that our polling had an impact,” he said on Monday. “During the
immigration debate, I think our polling — which showed the public
heavily against the Senate compromise — was part of the reason that
the compromise fell apart. The Senate acceded to public opinion. We’re
simply reporting on what the public wants.”
http://washingtonindependent.com/30539/rasmussen-the-only-poll-that-matters