Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Set-up Call about Bonds
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honeybee
Dec 21, 2010, 9:38:04 PM12/21/10
to brinker-moneytalk-and-marketim...@googlegroups.com
Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Don't Expect Answers Until You Pay Up
December 20, 2010....Bob Brinker's Moneytalk program, which is now down to only two hours, plus a guest hour, per week, almost always has what appears to be a set-up call, sometimes more than one.
These calls always offer perfect opportunities for Bob Brinker to dangle some investment-letter shark bait. No doubt that shark bait reels in a very full net each week.
The fact that it is done in a manner that ( in my opinion) is nefarious, doesn't seem to matter one little bit to Bob Brinker. Perhaps he does it for all those "young sprouts" and he feels that makes the ends justify the means.
Sunday, December 12th, Paul from Santa Fe said: "Mr. Brinker, first of all, I think you should be declared a national treasure. (Brinker: "You are very kind.") "The question I have is, I have about $650,000 in the Ginnie Mae Fund. I don't rely on it for current income. In fact, I just have the dividends re-invested, but I know that it's going to take a price hit. I wonder if you would recommend getting out of bonds completely, or if you'd just recommend moving into a shorter duration bond fund."
Honey EC: Even though Brinker tells Paul there are two answers, notice that he does NOT ANSWER his question at all! Paul did not even mention Brinker's "portfolios," he simply wanted to know if Brinker recommended "getting out of bonds completely," or moving into a fund with shorter duration than Ginnie Mae Funds.
But Brinker, ever the opportunist, jumped right in and gave Paul a spiel which basically gave him and all listeners this message: You are just a lowly "freeloader" (Brinker's own word, if you want the quote, ask me for it) radio listener. It doesn't matter that (through radio station advertising) listeners have paid my salary for 25 years and made me a multi-millionaire many times over via newsletter sales and my BJ Group, if you want to know the answer to your SIMPLE question, you will need to send me $185 bucks, ASAP!
Here are Brinker's exact words to Paul: "There are two answers to that question, Paul. Obviously, for years, I have had a recommendation in the Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund included in my model portfolio III and I've also placed it in my page 7 fixed income portfolio.....Those are my official portfolio recommendations on which my performance record is based. All of my official portfolio recommendations that I make, on which I am tracked for performance purposes, are made within the context of the investment letter. And I publish a new letter every month toward the beginning of the month. And it is within the context of the investment letter that I make those kinds of specific recommendations......"
Honey EC: That shark attack was good for a big laugh-out-loud. It's been years since Brinker changed portfolio percentages of Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund (VFIIX). It was 2003 to be exact (and another 5% added in 2004). How many thousands of dollars would it have cost Brinker in new subscriptions to simply tell Paul that he has no sell recommendations on bonds? How much integrity would it have taken?
Poor Paul, he could save himself writing Brinker a check to find out if he recommends selling bonds if only he knew that's about as likely to happen as it is that Brinker will ever again sell stocks from his model portfolios. There's not a snowballs chance in Death Valley that he will ever sell stock again after riding down fully invested one of the three worst over-50% bear markets in the history of the stock market.
These calls always offer perfect opportunities for Bob Brinker to dangle some investment-letter shark bait. No doubt that shark bait reels in a very full net each week.
The fact that it is done in a manner that ( in my opinion) is nefarious, doesn't seem to matter one little bit to Bob Brinker. Perhaps he does it for all those "young sprouts" and he feels that makes the ends justify the means.
Sunday, December 12th, Paul from Santa Fe said: "Mr. Brinker, first of all, I think you should be declared a national treasure. (Brinker: "You are very kind.") "The question I have is, I have about $650,000 in the Ginnie Mae Fund. I don't rely on it for current income. In fact, I just have the dividends re-invested, but I know that it's going to take a price hit. I wonder if you would recommend getting out of bonds completely, or if you'd just recommend moving into a shorter duration bond fund."
Honey EC: Even though Brinker tells Paul there are two answers, notice that he does NOT ANSWER his question at all! Paul did not even mention Brinker's "portfolios," he simply wanted to know if Brinker recommended "getting out of bonds completely," or moving into a fund with shorter duration than Ginnie Mae Funds.
But Brinker, ever the opportunist, jumped right in and gave Paul a spiel which basically gave him and all listeners this message: You are just a lowly "freeloader" (Brinker's own word, if you want the quote, ask me for it) radio listener. It doesn't matter that (through radio station advertising) listeners have paid my salary for 25 years and made me a multi-millionaire many times over via newsletter sales and my BJ Group, if you want to know the answer to your SIMPLE question, you will need to send me $185 bucks, ASAP!
Here are Brinker's exact words to Paul: "There are two answers to that question, Paul. Obviously, for years, I have had a recommendation in the Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund included in my model portfolio III and I've also placed it in my page 7 fixed income portfolio.....Those are my official portfolio recommendations on which my performance record is based. All of my official portfolio recommendations that I make, on which I am tracked for performance purposes, are made within the context of the investment letter. And I publish a new letter every month toward the beginning of the month. And it is within the context of the investment letter that I make those kinds of specific recommendations......"
Honey EC: That shark attack was good for a big laugh-out-loud. It's been years since Brinker changed portfolio percentages of Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund (VFIIX). It was 2003 to be exact (and another 5% added in 2004). How many thousands of dollars would it have cost Brinker in new subscriptions to simply tell Paul that he has no sell recommendations on bonds? How much integrity would it have taken?
Poor Paul, he could save himself writing Brinker a check to find out if he recommends selling bonds if only he knew that's about as likely to happen as it is that Brinker will ever again sell stocks from his model portfolios. There's not a snowballs chance in Death Valley that he will ever sell stock again after riding down fully invested one of the three worst over-50% bear markets in the history of the stock market.
* In April, 2003 Brinker traded 15% of VFIIX for a 15% purchase of Vanguard High Yield Fund (VWEHX).
* The last change he made to his fixed income portfolio was in April, 2004 when he reduced Vanguard Inflation Protected (VIPSX) from 25% to 10%. He reinvested 5% of that into VFIIX, bringing it up to 40% where it's been ever since. (And the other 10% from TIPS went into Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Fund (VFSTX).)
* As for portfolio III, the balanced portfolio, Ginnie Maes have been at 20% for years.
Brinker continued talking to Paul from Santa Fe: Now in terms of radio listeners who happen to have bond funds, my recommendation has been very clear that if you have any concerns about net-asset-value volatility, net-asset-value deterioration.....then you need to protect yourself. And the way that I recommend you protect yourself is with what is called a mental stop. And a mental stop is very simple.....You come up with a price on each of your bond fund holdings below which you are not willing to maintain the position, and if that price is published on any given night..... If you see your price then at that point, the next day, you liquidate your position......
...... Now obviously, if you liquidate a position in Ginnie Maes today, which are yielding over 3%, and you want to go with a high-quality investment - that's a triple-A grade investment - then you're probably going to wind up with a lower investment return, a lower yield, on whatever you decide to do with the money. In return for that, you get, if you go with a money fund or FDIC insured CD, you get principle protection because you aren't going to see any more price changes past the day you liquidate.......Always remember if there is a distribution in your bond fund, or any fund, then you need to adjust your mental stop for the distribution......This week Vanguard updated their estimate for their Ginnie Mae Fund, which is going to happen around the 29th of December......to 23-cents......18-cents short-term and 5-cents long-term......The money is in your account......Never adjust your mental stop by a tax-distribution. Only by price change."
Paul continued: "I appreciate the insight, Maestro, and can I subscribe to your newsletter?"
Brinker said: "Oh absolutely. All you have to do is go to bobbrinker.com. The information is all right there, Paul."
Paul continued: "Okay, I've been listening for about six weeks."
Brinker said: "We just completed our 25th year. We welcome you aboard."
Paul said: "That says a lot about you that you can last 25 years because it's performance and meritocracy in this business."
Brinker said: "Thank you Paul, appreciate the call, good to hear from ya."
Honey EC: Caching! At first, I didn't think this was one of Brinker's set-up calls until Paul made that last statement. I simply cannot believe that a person who sounded as intelligent as Paul did, and who has built a nice nest egg (we know he said he didn't even need the income on $650,000 invested in GNMAs), could be that naive and gullible or that easily suckered in. Didn't people used to ask Bernie Madoff if they could "subscribe" to his marketing plan? -- Just a thought.
To Paul, I would say, sure it's about performance with Brinker, but not his market-timing performance which is almost non-existent. It's about his dog-n-pony show on national radio-performance. He's been a buy-and-holder for the past seven years.
And as for Brinker's "meritocracy," one has to have integrity, honesty and character for merit to count. Merit hasn't kept Brinker on the air. Spin, half-truths and cover-ups have kept him on the air. And remember this, being a master wordsmith with a nice voice and talent behind a microphone, with the censor button in hand, does not equal merit. It only equals a 25 year song-and-dance marketing plan that probably worked out well beyond even Brinker's wildest expectations.
Blog poster, Joel from Dallas, asked a very good question: "....and Bob said to subscribe to his newsletter as that is where the information goes first. Why are we listening?
Moneytalk is FREE and available on demand at KGO810 radio for seven days after broadcast. The now once-weekly Sunday program is archived in the 1-4pm time-slots. KGO: Moneytalk Download Don't forget to download the Barbara Weltman editor of the J K Lasser tax guide interview in the 3-4 hour of the program.
...... Now obviously, if you liquidate a position in Ginnie Maes today, which are yielding over 3%, and you want to go with a high-quality investment - that's a triple-A grade investment - then you're probably going to wind up with a lower investment return, a lower yield, on whatever you decide to do with the money. In return for that, you get, if you go with a money fund or FDIC insured CD, you get principle protection because you aren't going to see any more price changes past the day you liquidate.......Always remember if there is a distribution in your bond fund, or any fund, then you need to adjust your mental stop for the distribution......This week Vanguard updated their estimate for their Ginnie Mae Fund, which is going to happen around the 29th of December......to 23-cents......18-cents short-term and 5-cents long-term......The money is in your account......Never adjust your mental stop by a tax-distribution. Only by price change."
Paul continued: "I appreciate the insight, Maestro, and can I subscribe to your newsletter?"
Brinker said: "Oh absolutely. All you have to do is go to bobbrinker.com. The information is all right there, Paul."
Paul continued: "Okay, I've been listening for about six weeks."
Brinker said: "We just completed our 25th year. We welcome you aboard."
Paul said: "That says a lot about you that you can last 25 years because it's performance and meritocracy in this business."
Brinker said: "Thank you Paul, appreciate the call, good to hear from ya."
Honey EC: Caching! At first, I didn't think this was one of Brinker's set-up calls until Paul made that last statement. I simply cannot believe that a person who sounded as intelligent as Paul did, and who has built a nice nest egg (we know he said he didn't even need the income on $650,000 invested in GNMAs), could be that naive and gullible or that easily suckered in. Didn't people used to ask Bernie Madoff if they could "subscribe" to his marketing plan? -- Just a thought.
To Paul, I would say, sure it's about performance with Brinker, but not his market-timing performance which is almost non-existent. It's about his dog-n-pony show on national radio-performance. He's been a buy-and-holder for the past seven years.
And as for Brinker's "meritocracy," one has to have integrity, honesty and character for merit to count. Merit hasn't kept Brinker on the air. Spin, half-truths and cover-ups have kept him on the air. And remember this, being a master wordsmith with a nice voice and talent behind a microphone, with the censor button in hand, does not equal merit. It only equals a 25 year song-and-dance marketing plan that probably worked out well beyond even Brinker's wildest expectations.
Blog poster, Joel from Dallas, asked a very good question: "....and Bob said to subscribe to his newsletter as that is where the information goes first. Why are we listening?
Moneytalk is FREE and available on demand at KGO810 radio for seven days after broadcast. The now once-weekly Sunday program is archived in the 1-4pm time-slots. KGO: Moneytalk Download Don't forget to download the Barbara Weltman editor of the J K Lasser tax guide interview in the 3-4 hour of the program.
Chart courtesy of Kirk Lindstrom:
Pig
Dec 22, 2010, 2:49:55 PM12/22/10
to brinker-moneytalk-and-marketim...@googlegroups.com
I really like the way your colors and graphs show up here. IMO, it's actually SUPERIOR to the Blog.
honeybee
Dec 22, 2010, 3:39:02 PM12/22/10
to brinker-moneytalk-and-marketim...@googlegroups.com
I agree Mr. Pig...It is superior...
Now if they can just find a way to automatically send readers to the updated site, since none of the goodies show up on the old one.
And I'm not sure which site shows up on Searches.
.
Pig
Dec 22, 2010, 4:49:51 PM12/22/10
to brinker-moneytalk-and-marketim...@googlegroups.com
I'm trying to figure out how to make the NEW style the "DEFAULT", since I like it so much. I may try IE again...........I think I saw that option there, but I don't see it with Firefox.
They might be a little unsure about the success of this. I think it's a winner.........................but they have to support it and help it grow.
Bill Bowden
Dec 23, 2010, 12:41:07 AM12/23/10
to Bob Brinker Moneytalk and Marketimer discussions with The Beehive Buzz
On Dec 21, 6:38 pm, honeybee <mshoneyr...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Don't Expect Answers Until You Pay
find him in the Los Angeles area. And what is this Mental Stop BS?
Most people sell stuff when the price falls too much. Cash under the
mattress is better than watching red ink every day. If you can't take
the heat, get out of the kitchen.
-Bill
honeybee
Dec 23, 2010, 12:54:53 PM12/23/10
to Bob Brinker Moneytalk and Marketimer discussions with The Beehive Buzz
Hi Bill,
Yep, Brinker is not on very much anymore. He lost some stations and
the others cut him back to one day a week -- Sundays only.
Brinker's been singing that Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund mental-stop
mantra for some time now.
However, he has made no changes in his own "official" model portfolios
or fixed income portfolios.
In other words, he has not sold any bonds -- not even Ginnie Maes.
Hope you have a great Christmas and Happy New Year!
On Dec 22, 9:41 pm, Bill Bowden <bper...@bowdenshobbycircuits.info>
wrote:
Yep, Brinker is not on very much anymore. He lost some stations and
the others cut him back to one day a week -- Sundays only.
Brinker's been singing that Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund mental-stop
mantra for some time now.
However, he has made no changes in his own "official" model portfolios
or fixed income portfolios.
In other words, he has not sold any bonds -- not even Ginnie Maes.
Hope you have a great Christmas and Happy New Year!
On Dec 22, 9:41 pm, Bill Bowden <bper...@bowdenshobbycircuits.info>
wrote:
Bill Bowden
Dec 24, 2010, 12:26:46 AM12/24/10
to Bob Brinker Moneytalk and Marketimer discussions with The Beehive Buzz
sometimes, but try to hold off selling for a few days to see if things
get better, and they usually do.
I like the ETF high yield bond fund (HYG) that does better than VFIIX
with a yield of 8.48% compared to 3.13% for the Vanguard fund. More
volatility, but not as much as stocks. Sure better than watching
stocks go down. Each to their own. Have a good one.
-Bill
honeybee
Dec 25, 2010, 8:49:31 PM12/25/10
to Bob Brinker Moneytalk and Marketimer discussions with The Beehive Buzz
Bill,
Is there any reason why you chose HYG over JNK?
I did some comparisons when I decided to sell most of my high-yield
bond mutual funds and decided to buy JNK.
On Dec 23, 9:26 pm, Bill Bowden <bper...@bowdenshobbycircuits.info>
> -Bill- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -
Is there any reason why you chose HYG over JNK?
I did some comparisons when I decided to sell most of my high-yield
bond mutual funds and decided to buy JNK.
On Dec 23, 9:26 pm, Bill Bowden <bper...@bowdenshobbycircuits.info>
>
> - Show quoted text -
Bill Bowden
Dec 25, 2010, 11:15:29 PM12/25/10
to Bob Brinker Moneytalk and Marketimer discussions with The Beehive Buzz
On Dec 25, 5:49 pm, honeybee <mshoneyr...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> Bill,
>
> Is there any reason why you chose HYG over JNK?
>
> I did some comparisons when I decided to sell most of my high-yield
> bond mutual funds and decided to buy JNK.
>
don't do much research other than looking at Yahoo charts and
searching Google for ETFs.
I found HYG using Google but missed the JNK. But they all seem to be
about the same over 1 year, other than other than JNK with a little
more yield and Vanguard (VWEHX) with a little bit more principal gain.
I might buy a little of the JNK which looks better both in principal
gain and yield.
Here's a 1 year chart comparing HYG, JNK, and VWEHX.
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=HYG&t=1y&q=l&l=on&z=l&c=JNK,VWEHX&p=s&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US®ion=US
Thanks, and Happy new year.
-Bill
honeybee
Dec 31, 2010, 11:54:06 AM12/31/10
to Bob Brinker Moneytalk and Marketimer discussions with The Beehive Buzz
Thanks, Bill. It looks like VWEHX might be doing a bit better than the
indexes.
The reason I sold most of my high-yield bond fund holdings and bought
JNK is because you can unload JNK any time, whereas, mutual funds are
sold at the closing price of the day.
I sure hope you had a great Christmas and looking forward to a very
Happy New Year.
JNK went ex-dividend on the 29th and will be paying a sizeable long
and short-term capital gains distribution soon.
On Dec 25, 8:15 pm, Bill Bowden <bper...@bowdenshobbycircuits.info>
wrote:
> > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -
indexes.
The reason I sold most of my high-yield bond fund holdings and bought
JNK is because you can unload JNK any time, whereas, mutual funds are
sold at the closing price of the day.
I sure hope you had a great Christmas and looking forward to a very
Happy New Year.
JNK went ex-dividend on the 29th and will be paying a sizeable long
and short-term capital gains distribution soon.
On Dec 25, 8:15 pm, Bill Bowden <bper...@bowdenshobbycircuits.info>
wrote:
> On Dec 25, 5:49 pm, honeybee <mshoneyr...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
> > Bill,
>
> > Is there any reason why you chose HYG over JNK?
>
> > I did some comparisons when I decided to sell most of my high-yield
> > bond mutual funds and decided to buy JNK.
>
> That looks good Honeybee. I wasn't aware of JNK. As you can tell, I
> don't do much research other than looking at Yahoo charts and
> searching Google for ETFs.
> I found HYG using Google but missed the JNK. But they all seem to be
> about the same over 1 year, other than other than JNK with a little
> more yield and Vanguard (VWEHX) with a little bit more principal gain.
> I might buy a little of the JNK which looks better both in principal
> gain and yield.
>
> Here's a 1 year chart comparing HYG, JNK, and VWEHX.
>
> http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=HYG&t=1y&q=l&l=on&z=l&c=JNK,VWEHX&...
>
> > Bill,
>
> > Is there any reason why you chose HYG over JNK?
>
> > I did some comparisons when I decided to sell most of my high-yield
> > bond mutual funds and decided to buy JNK.
>
> That looks good Honeybee. I wasn't aware of JNK. As you can tell, I
> don't do much research other than looking at Yahoo charts and
> searching Google for ETFs.
> I found HYG using Google but missed the JNK. But they all seem to be
> about the same over 1 year, other than other than JNK with a little
> more yield and Vanguard (VWEHX) with a little bit more principal gain.
> I might buy a little of the JNK which looks better both in principal
> gain and yield.
>
> Here's a 1 year chart comparing HYG, JNK, and VWEHX.
>
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