BRB Groupthink: 3/31

[Matthew Weston]

Deshaun Watson is gone. He won’t face criminal charges but he still has 22 criminal suits pending. This week leaned footage of his dispositions came out. Do you think Watson will be suspended for the 2022 season? If so, how many games?

[Randall Bronn]

He has to be suspended at the bare minimum. There’s to much pressure on the league. Unless every single thing is proven to be untrue in which then I could understand him not getting suspended but if after all this he walks away without anything, everyone will point out all the wife beaters, child abusers, drug users and horrible actions any other NFL player has done and say “look what this person did”. With the Calvin Ridley situation still in recent memory everyone will look and go “wow the league cares more about competitive balance then Watsons issues” and of course the NFL cares more about making money don’t be stupid now but they do care about their reputation so suspending Watson will be the NFL “maintaining” order.

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> On Mar 30, 2022, at 9:21 PM, Matthew Weston <mbw...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Deshaun Watson is gone. He won’t face criminal charges but he still has 22 criminal suits pending. This week leaned footage of his dispositions came out. Do you think Watson will be suspended for the 2022 season? If so, how many games?
>
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[Mike Bullock]

I'm certainly no lawyer, nor do I pretend to understand how this seriously complex matter will play out. So, I have to go off what I've read online via great sources like Steph Stradley, and not so great ones like rando Twitter peeps. Rarely does the court of public opinion have all the facts, and often looks more like a torch and pitchfork mob of misunderstanding turned volatile than a rational, fair and balanced judgement. All that being said, Watson certainly looks more guilty than ever after the leaked deposition. 

The last I saw, the civil cases appear headed to drag out into 2023. With that, I fully expect the NFL and Cleveland Browns to do a similar arrangement to what Houston did in 2021, making Watson a healthy scratch all season. Cleveland is on the hook for very little money in Watson's mega-deal for the 2022 season, so sitting him all year won't cost much and it allows Watson to learn the team, playbook, culture, etc while the Haslams and others hope and pray time heals all wounds and the Dawg Pound starts to forget that their beloved team may have given the single biggest contract in NFL history to a serial sexual predator. 

If these civil cases remain unresolved heading into week one of the 2022 NFL season and Watson takes the field, the potential backlash from NFL fans is tidal wave-esque in scope. The risk vs reward here for Roger Goodell and his pals in New York does not lean in Watson's favor. Allegedly, there are numerous women's rights groups planning massive protests at any and all NFL games featuring Watson. If Goodell and co. thought they took it on the PR chin with Colin Kaepernick, wait til these women's rights groups get hold of them. Don't put it past these groups to start running television ads, getting celebrity backing (unlike the anti-Kaepernick crowd) and immolating the Browns/Watson in the court of public opinion. Brushing off the poster child for NFL social justice is one thing, empowering an assault on wives, mothers, sisters and daughters everywhere is quite another. 

The leaked video didn't do Watson any favors, either. Particularly the part where he's asked about trying to make it out like he was in New York City when one of the massage incidents occurred. Was he trying to hide the massage session from his girlfriend? Was he trying to establish a legal alibi for wrong-doing that occured? Was he just making a stupid-yet-innocent mistake? We may never know, but it sure looks shady and sus. 

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[Scott Martin]

With no new criminal charges on the horizon, it would appear that the only thing that could stop Watson from playing in the Dawg Pound in 2022 will be Goodell and the NFL. Watson will want to get out to the field and the Browns want him on the field to try to actually win a Super Bowl and get people to not hound them for giving Watson a raise for all the baggage he is bringing. Yet, the NFL is "still investigating" and with the civil cases likely to drag out for some time, I am not so sure there will be any resolution on NFL discipline for some time. If there is one, I don't see how the NFL can make it any less than 6 games, but unless the NFL goes for at least a full season's worth of game, there will massive outrage. 

Also, I don't put it past the NFL to try to make the Browns and Watson pay for being so "smart" about the 2022 base salary part of his contract. Since the base salary is "only" $1M, if Watson was to even miss the whole season, he is out just that money, not any other part of the $230M guaranteed to him. However, if the NFL decides to wait until the civil cases resolve and/or issue a judgement later in the season that would impact Watson past 2022 and into 2023, then there will be greater financial pain, which Watson has not experienced to date as far as his NFL salary is concerned. 

So, unless the NFL decides to step in, Watson will take the field in 2022. Watson staying off the field for Houston in 2021 was as much about his desire to never play for the Texans again as it was his legal issues. He will want to get on the field, if for no other reason than to try to get some positive headlines for once. Of course, he will have NO margin for error and receive no quarter for any mistakes (with justification for that). This means that barring any sort of NFL action, he will return to NRG Stadium in 2022. The reception he will get is likely to be legendary, and not in a good way. 

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[sbarzilla]

I'm going to go with six games. I think there will be an initial suspension for eight and then the obligatory appeal will drop it to six. I think the upshot is that the Browns will miss the playoffs next year. Jacoby Brissett will easily be the worst starting quarterback in that division for the games he will be at the helm. Of course, when schedules come out we could go through and predict wins and losses for each of those games, but I don't see how a Brissett led team goes any better than 3-3 through that stretch and likely 2-4. That should be enough to cost them the division. As much talent as the Browns have, I just don't see winning as automatic for them. The Bengals and Ravens are also good teams when healthy and if the Steelers get someone other than Mitch Trubisky at quarterback then they could be good too. 

[Kenneth Levy]

Sounds like he won’t be put on the commissioner’s exempt list, which I was hoping was the punishment considering the Browns’ contract for him was a direct circumvent of NFL policy and procedures. It’s weakness the NFL is displaying right now and I honestly can’t believe this would occur for a non-QB. 

If they aren't doing the exempt list, I suspect the punishment to be much less than people expect. I could see six being the punishment, it get appealed, then reduced to four. That seems like a win-win for the league. They go big, redact, then still have their way. I can't see an entire season going or half for a punishment based on civil cases that aren't being pursued to the fullest extent. 

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[Geoff Mueller]

I'm going to also go six games.

I don't think the NFL cares is the honest truth. Just don't say the bad parts out loud, and everything will be fine. Nothing to see here. Deshaun who?

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