JWT第五次发布对于新年度的趋势预测
Rodney Cao
在辞旧迎新之际，JWT第五次发布了对于新年度的趋势预测。其中，经济因素仍然是我们思考的一大主线。而就在我们即将迈入下一个十年的时候，我们所预见
到的众多趋势都是经济大衰退的产物。
十大趋势之一览:
寻求稳定
虽然众多指标都显示经济复苏已经开始，但是消费者在看到真正清晰可靠的、触手可及的经济稳定的标志之前，他们还将继续维持紧缩政策。也就是说，消费者将
会继续推迟对于大宗物品的消费。而失业率的高低是消费者判断经济状况的关键性指标。
研读细则
消费者将会比以往更努力、花更多的时间和精力去找那些值得花钱的商品和服务，弄清任何细小含糊的问题，了解有关添加物、营养成分、环境以及商业道德规范
的来龙去脉。例如当银行、航空公司以及其他状况不佳的行业的公司出台一整套繁复的附加费用和条款时，消费者如果不加以注意，就会付出很大的代价。
最大化的公开
近几年，生产商和零售商已经变得越来越透明，而法律的要求和竞争的压力将会迫使他们更加完整的公开从产品成分、卡路里含量到碳足迹以及原料来源等等在内
的所有信息。比如沃尔马超市就在和他的供应商一起为他们所有的产品开发出一套可持续发展指数。
穿包装的恶魔
就在环保的聚光灯关注在制造包装的环境成本上的时候，品牌会更多地转向使用瓶装、盒装以及其通过其他方法来减少、循环利用、回收、转移或者翻新旧的包
装。英国的Kenco咖啡最近就推出了环保续杯，这个方式据说比原来的玻璃瓶装节省了97%的包装成本。
金砖三国，却比以往更加强大
以往所说的“金砖四国”——巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国，现如今只剩下三国——巴西、印度和中国。而就在发达国家还被困在金融危机中举步维艰的时候，这三
个国家在经济上和政治上都变得比以往更加强大。就以对于奢侈品的消费能力为例，与发达国家萎缩的市场相反，中国市场仍在上升阶段；因此在2009年10
月，包括克里斯汀·迪奥在内的多家法国奢侈品牌就在中国联合发布了一个网站来推销他们的品牌。
草根式的创新
那些本来为发展中国家而设计的产品以其便宜简便，慢慢地受到了发达市场消费者的青睐，成为了现有产品的替代品，从而越来越多的此类产品渗透进了发达市场
中。例如印度Mahindra & Mahindra生产的更加廉价的小马力拖拉机就成为了美国农场主的新宠，该公司从美国的约翰迪尔公司手中抢到了越
来越多的市场份额。
重装老年世界
世界老龄化趋势越来越严重，而老年人则在努力独立生活尽可能长的时间，因此，我们会注意到为这群人特定的产品和服务正在增长和繁荣。例如
Thermador就推出了一个做好饭之后会自动关闭玻璃灶面。
实时的生活
互联网已经衍进成为了一股不断更新的洪流，裹挟着实时的信息、对话、memes以及图像。这种现象造就了一个不断增大的大众文化并且改变了对于“当
下”的定义，把现代生活搬到了“现在”。例如在世界职业棒球大赛期间，Huffington Post 就临时成立了一个实时更新的机站，来收集那些棒
球写手、纽约专家以及费城的批评家等在Twitter上面的留言。
所有关于“你在哪里的”事情
伴随着市场上越来越多的基于地理位置的服务以及先进的手机及地图技术，就像讨论“我在做什么”和“我在想什么”一样，“我现在在哪儿”将会越来越多的出
现在对话当中。例如游戏应用软件公司Foursquare就使用地理圈注技术帮助使用者发现并且跟朋友分享酒吧、餐厅以及其他的场所。
读图时代
从文字向图像转换的趋势会进一步加速，我们将会看到以更加创新的方式来解释和阐明复杂的问题。例如网上的动画短片“The Crisis of
Credit Visualized” 就融合了讲故事、新闻报道以及分析等多种手法把一个复杂的主题讲得通俗易懂。
2010年10大趋势的全文可在www.jwtintelligence.com上查看
Searching for Stability
While many indicators point to the beginnings of an economic recovery,
consumers will continue to exercise restraint until they see more
clear, dependable and closer-to-home signs of stability. Unemployment
lifting will be a key barometer for consumers. (Example: People are
still delaying big-ticket purchases.)
Reading the Fine Print
Consumers will be working harder than ever, putting more time and
energy into finding good values, reading the fine print and learning
the ins and outs of nutrition, environmental impact and ethical
business practices. (Example: As banks, airlines and other ailing
service industries impose a complex raft of fees and conditions on
customers, failure to pay close attention will be costly.)
Maximum Disclosure
While manufacturers and retailers have become increasingly transparent
in recent years, legal requirements and competitive pressures will
force fuller disclosure about everything from ingredients and calorie
counts to carbon footprints and sourcing. (Example: Walmart is working
with its suppliers to develop a sustainability index for all its
products.)
The Devil Wears Packaging
As the eco spotlight focuses on the environmental costs of packaging,
brands will increasingly switch to bottles, boxes and other solutions
that reduce, reuse, recycle, remove and renew. (Example: Kenco Coffee
in the U.K. recently launched Eco Refills, which it says use 97
percent less packaging than its glass jars.)
It’s BIC, and It’s Bigger Than Ever
The vaunted BRIC emerging markets are now down to BIC—and while
developed nations remain hobbled by the financial crisis, Brazil,
India and China are emerging stronger than ever, both economically and
politically. (Example: As the appetite for luxury in the developed
world wanes, it’s on the rise in China; in October, dozens of French
luxury labels, including Christian Dior and Chanel, launched a Web
site to promote their brands in the region.)
Trickle-Up Innovation
Products designed for emerging markets are increasingly filtering into
the developed world, where consumers are welcoming them as cheaper and
simpler alternatives to existing choices. (Example: India’s Mahindra &
Mahindra is gaining market share against John Deere, offering suburban
lawn-owners in the U.S. a lower-horsepower tractor at lower prices.)
Retooling for an Aging World
As the world’s population grows older than it’s ever been, watch for a
proliferation of products and services that cater to this demographic
as they strive to live independently for as long as they can.
(Example: Thermador has designed a glass cooktop that automatically
shuts off when cooking is completed.)
Life in Real Time
The Web is evolving into a constantly updating stream of real-time
information, conversation, memes and images. This is creating an
increasingly mass culture and shifting perceptions of “current,”
moving modern life into the “now.” (Example: During the World Series,
the Huffington Post created a real-time hub that collected the Twitter
feeds of baseball writers, Yankees mavens and Phillies commenters.)
Location-Based Everything
With more location-based services and advanced mobile and mapping
technologies hitting the market, the conversation will become as much
about “where I am” as it is about “what I’m doing” and “what’s on my
mind.” (Example: Foursquare, a gaming app, uses geo-tagging technology
to help users find and share bars, restaurants and other venues with
friends.)
Visual Fluency
The ongoing shift from words to images will accelerate, and we’ll see
increasingly innovative ways to explain and illuminate complex topics.
(Example: The animated online short “The Crisis of Credit Visualized”
blends storytelling, journalism and analysis to make a complex topic
easier to grasp.)