Saving the World
Norman
tired of saving the world so I had to return to the planet Ultron for
the Great Master to give me a good shake. I seem to be alright now as
is Benny you will be pleased to know. Benny has expanded to Benny and
Snuffeltye (little cuddles). Benny is an all white floppy eared thing
and snuff is a grey lion faced little girl. Just like the prison
visitors at San Quentin they are only allowed to touch paws through the
mesh.
On the subject of saving the World, would you guys like to pass a
comment on this article:
http://lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
Best
Jerry
Russia has definitely not 'peaked' in oil production, and the financial
analysis of 'expensive' oil extraction is very dubious. Just because
Iraqi oil currently costs $1 per barrel to pull out of the ground does
not mean that its final cost will be $1600 per barrel if the extraction
cost is $70.
There is already a struggle for resources, China and India (mainly
China) are going to be large consumers, that is why Putin is in China.
The price hikes are in everyones interest (except Joe Public - and he
does not matter) the NG fiasco in the UK is definitely market
manipulation
- speculators are having a field day in NG and Oil markets.
So far, my take, is that new refineries are not needed in the West -
demand has been declining as fuel efficiency has become important.
Similarly extraction/conversion technology has been improving. This lot
have two very interesting processes:-
http://www.ivanhoe-energy.com/s/Home.asp
There has been no real interest in developing viable alternative
sources of energy - apart from no brainers like hydro dams.
Although there is cause for concern, mainly from 'short term' shocks,
at one time it was reckoned that London would be 10' deep in horse
manure.
We are literally swimming in energy, we just don't know how to get at
it.
Drew
is deeply heart-warming. Which reminds me I'll probably have to
'knock off' a few bunnies in the near future. The deer are on a
warning if they don't stop congregating in numbers at our cattle
grid, the pheasants are in deep danger of being plucked if they don't
leave the crocuses alone, and the squirrel's days are numbered.
Largely I skimmed that link 'cos 500 words at a time is about my
limit but the assessments seem fair enough. It is truly bizarre though
because regardless, if we don't dramatically change our profligate
habits there will be no oil within a relative blink of the eye.
Doesn't take a genius or fancy numerical analysis techniques to work
that out. Most other resources too, even mountains quarried for stone,
how long will it take for us to make a billiard ball out of the planet.
I have a vision, humans still vibrant in 50 thousand years, exploring
the galaxy. Present policies will ruin the planet within a few hundred
years and truly bring hell on earth. And it's so devastatingly
simple, just a few simple guidelines :-
1) Dramatically reduce world population to a sustainable few hundred
million.
2) Resource viable energy alternatives.
3) Redirect fusion research from blue sky to urgent implementation.
4) Dramatically reduce city size.
5) Build sustainably.
6) Recycle everything.
7) Educate the world.
Lot of sub-sets to those, such as educating the evil of religion out of
existence; emphasising public transport; dispersing the population and
site workers in proximity to place of employment; etc. These are all
commonly understood by humanists, conservation groups, the well
educated. One way or other, world order is going to do back flips so we
can either career down the slope and hope that something will turn up,
or take command of the situation. Our Chancellor seems delighted that
UK growth has been over 2%. Is he really such a short sited idiot?
Sorry, silly question. Market growth, economic growth, fiscal policy,
they are all ultimately doomed by the sword hanging over our heads.
-------------
Just listening on the radio that 'Vista' won't be released for
another year yet. Hold me back. Doesn't sound like MS are working on
a more streamlined system does it. It'll be as bloated as a dead
beached whale.
Best
Drew
In addition, it is a beyond belief that no government in the world
vigorously promotes ground heat pumps. Every new building should by law
have them installed below the foundations before the first brick is
laid. That this doesn't happen points either to pig ignorance in our
'leaders' or to the lobby held by energy suppliers. Bleedin
criminal.
Best
Norman
peak others like Saudi are reckoned to be on the cusp and others like
Texas are well past the peak. BP has put in a major pipeline into the
Caspian region through Azerbaijan Georgia and Turkey. China is about to
connect into the Russian field through Kazakhstan and also join into
the Caspian fields north of the Sea of Aral Which is probably why Putin
is in China at the moment. Having said this supplies are not about run
out tomorrow but in the coming years life will become bit by bit more
difficult. As a little example of this, last week the bus fare to town
was €1.80, this week it is €2.50. This will not break the bank now
but it is a sign of the way things will go.
The so called hydrogen economy is fraught with problems and is
apparently decades away. The electricity generating companies are
talking about 20% - 30% of energy from renewable sources by 2030 but
they don't say what the total energy requirement of 2030 will be, it
could be up or it could be down.
A great population die off is predicted as oil runs out. This will
affect the dependant nations; the elderly from the west and the sick.
It must be remembered that with the exponential increase in world
population and reduced energy availability, it will not be possible to
have all the things we are now used to. Society will have to choose
between plastics and pharmaceuticals or heating for the elderly homes
and with no fuel for farm
machinery and agro products life will become simpler and harsher than
now Cities will not exist as we know them if at all. City dwellers
will be lost as society breaks down into smaller self sustainable units
maybe trading with other small communities with local currencies. Or it
could develop into a two tier currency system like in recent Russia
where there was the official rouble and the local rouble.
Nor are technological advances in fuel efficiency the answer. Jevons
Paradox (No relation that I am aware of) tells us that the more
efficient we become in using a resource, the more of that resource we
use not less. More fuel efficient automobiles equates to more leisure
driving. New roads to alleviate congestion just make place for more
cars. Witness the M25 orbital motorway as an example, which for years
has been known as London's parking lot. It seems they cannot put
extra lanes in fast enough.
Ironically, the worlds very poor who have been used to subsisting
without western aid probably won't notice any difference. It will be
different though but after a few generations we are not likely to
notice it any more.
Best.
Drew
interested to see you Norman envisage smaller self contained units, in
a sense harking back to former times where every pissy little village
had a shoemaker. It needn't return to sepia photograph days though
because if technology is managed wisely these quasi autonomous units
could employ science only presently glimpsed at to provide a high
standard of living. Nano technology for instance, whereby the clever
little devils are told to make a gangle sprocket out of the raw
materials thrown in. Not so improbable when one considers my much
repeated example that even the humble nettle manages to synthesise
silica for its stings. All one would need are awfully clever DNA, raw
materials (ie *anything* which contains the required elements) and
power (fusion). If there are indeed little green men out there this is
the technology they must have evolved. However, it seems that the
ludicrous 'war on terror', politically motivated oil supplies and
reality shows swamp most sensible discussion on the subject.
Best
Norman
Depending on what part of Lancashire you came from the saying "You
can't have your cake and eat it" or "You can't have your bun
and ha'penny" springs to mind. One day Texas T will be no more and
it seems to me that if the War on Terror was directed towards a War on
Energy, mankind would fare a lot better, not fear a lot better.
You know from past ramblings that I am sold on the idea (nearly said
big fan) of Stirling Engine technology. It has been around for 150
years and is only now being taken seriously. The only thing I am not
completely mad about is that the commercial ones just breaking into the
market use hydrogen as the heat transfer medium, probably because of
its Cp value. I have not looked it up but I would feel happier with
helium. This is the sort of thing that could help a small community but
I expect manufacturers would have to recoup development costs in the
first phase of production before they became more affordable.
Remember that this gismo is a reflector that concentrates heat to drive
a Stirling Engine, it is not photovoltaic. It could also charge up a
heat sink to provide energy during the night.
http://www.stirlingenergy.com/whatisastirlingengine.htm
I do foresee smaller communities with the demise of oil. If cities
still exist to any extent then probably Maglev technology will replace
road transport just build the track down the centre of a motorway.
You know, I can't get the imagery out of my head of your village
shoemaker with a dingy backroom filled with bell jars full of
homunculus.
Best
Jerry
'fragile'
We would be wise to try to make things more self contained so that
'shocks' do not throw the entire system into turmoil.
However there are interesting trends, as people become more affluent,
the birth rate goes down.
There is no food shortage, places where there is famine are normally
places where civil disorder has reduced production - sure there is
drought, but that could be solved.
Technology tends towards miniaturization, also cheap and plentiful
materials, glass fibre replaces copper - as does mobile technology.
The only reason copper is dear is because of demand from China for
plumbing - that will reduce as their housing hits a plateau.
We are becoming more waste aware, slowly, but there is a distinct
trend. For example in France they have (mostly) abolished plastic bags
- it is fascinating seeing how people cope.
As materials become more expensive, then recycling kicks into action -
I prefer to call it 'waste mining'.
The French are making a serious effort at Nuclear Fusion, if it works
then we might well have cheap and plentiful electricity - use that to
create gas (hydrogen) and slot it into the existing infrastructure,
ditto it can be converted into a form of petrol.
The need for cities is vastly reduced as communications improve, people
have a marked tendency to migrate to more rural areas for quality of
life reasons.
I'm convinced that we are ready to make some technological
breakthroughs eg: light weight high capacity batteries, I would not be
surprized to see some form of anti-gravity and I have a strong
suspicion that one could develop a refrigerator that generates
electricity rather than uses it - ambient temperature is a form of
'potential energy'.
On a rather unpleasant side, we are in for the odd plague, AIDS is
already taking its toll, the real experts (I know one) reckon a killer
Flu is inevitable, that is why they are worried by H5N1
If we carry on as we have been going for the last say 70 years, then
there will be a disaster, but there is no reason to assume that we will
carry on in a straight line.
For example, in the 1970s people were worried about a population
explosion in Africa, in fact the opposite has happened.
It would be sensible to take some radical steps right now, the trouble
is that most 'initiatives' tend to be rather idiotic.
Drew
I found I did actually know to what it referred but forgotten the term.
Many years ago (many many), exploring the full spectrum of sexual
discovery, I showed a girlfriend a 'sample'. She said delighted
"I can see their tails, and tiny little legs."
Funny, I though my notion on the dissolution of cities might be
regarded as a bit off the wall. Glad there is consensus. Something to
work with when arguing with 'non-believers'. I have met the
occasional person who actually enjoys the noise of buses trundling past
and waiting taxis rattling the windows at two in the morning. One girl
in particular sticks in my mind, girlfriend of Tom, an acquaintance of
mine who coincidently lived off the same stairwell as me in Edinburgh.
One morning I asked "How's Lynne?" Not the thing to ask,
apparently. "She left me." Filling in an embarrassed silence,
"Anyone I know?" "Another woman." Well she did have an awfully
large bottom which in my experience goes with the territory.
Ireland's put a charge on plastic bags, similar moves in Scotland
too. Can't say I'm quite so optimistic about dramatic battery
improvement, simply because there are no reversible reactions which
come close to the energy contained in hydrocarbons. At present, even
the best batteries suffer a weight penalty of something like 30:1.
Higher capacity is theoretically possible but only by using nasty
materials and mega expansive catalysts. Energy cells are going to hit
the market in the near future though, Toshiba laptops will probably be
the first. As for anti-gravity, hint? How? No one apart from string
theory specialists has the slightest idea what gravity is, or even why
it is. Think they are homing in on eleven dimensions and don't ya
just love the term 'sparticles'. Personally (as said before) I'd
be interested to run relativity with mass being a function of a
particle's gravity but I don't have the maths, physics or
commitment. There's a challenge for you.
The Stirling engine has of course its ancestry in the condensing steam
engine. Same principle but the latter was dreadfully inefficient -- and
big. That's the rub with the Stirling engine, size and weight. So
whilst I sympathise with 'build a better mousetrap / engine', in
most applications the Stirling would be inappropriate. OK it *could* be
more efficient than, say, power mover or generator turbines, but this
would be so hobbled by volume and weight that it just can't compete.
If there were more substances which exhibited perfect characteristics,
such as liquid helium or superconductors, then the Stirling could be
made competitively small. Diamond is obviously the chamber material of
choice, exhibiting thermal conductivity nearly four times that of
copper. However, as the article indicates, the Stirling engine is
probably the most efficient means of converting sunlight to usable
power and in this application possibly also the most practical.
Wwwhhooo, I don't want to get AIDS again. Nearly as bad as my dose of
bird flu which wiped out half of Girvan but didn't get reported
because 'important' news took priority. Fair enough.
Best
Jerry
- if one could make them generate their own 'cool source' they would
mechanically do what I've been thinking about - a heat splitter -
especially if one 'lost' some of the cool bit.
- if one could use electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen,
then one would have something for the 'hot source'
Although it sounds daft, there might be something in it, as one would
be splitting a source of heat into mechanical/electric power and some
very cold air.
With batteries, it is more a matter of functionality than how they work
inside, you can already use capacitors for storing charge. I must look
into fuel cells.
The city stuff strikes me as fairly obvious, they used to be necessary
as people commuted in to work, but they are becoming increasingly
pointless - high cost areas for offices which could be decentralized.
It is probably a matter of finding the optimum size of a population
centre.
Anti gravity could be as simple as a dirigable that pulls you up, I
wonder how much helium you need to lift 200lbs - hmm... a 17.5' balloon
to lift 170lbs - bulky. But with new materials and hot helium ...
Jerry
The heating of the hot spot is daft - except maybe for rev-ing it up
- the whole thing depends on the difference in temperature between the
hot spot and the cold spot - if the temperature differential is 4c then
cold spot will be 'warmed' as it cools the gas in the chamber at the
same rate that the hot spot is heated.
It depends on the quantity of heat one can get into the hot spot per
second.
It looks like a compressor collecting air for the hot spot, acting as a
heat pump, then depressurizing the air over the cold spot acting as a
cooler, amplifying the different temperatures, but really grabbing as
much warmth per second as it can from the 'hot source' which is a
direct product of the volume of warm air.
Basically the extreme point would be something that sucks in large
quantities of ambient temperature air and squirts out liquid nitrogen.
Stick the thing in a sealed room and nothing would happen, but stick it
on a hill over a valley and you would get energy and a frozen valley.
I see what you mean about Diamonds for heat conductivity, ideally also
the guts of the Stirling Engine would have no moving parts.
An amusing concept, an aircraft engine working by suction rather than
thrust...
Drew
systems sometimes use awfully clever little ones of up to several
farads utilising sintered electrodes for ultra-high surface area but
the energy is still very low. Energy equals 1/2CV^2 so at the (nominal)
5 volts, 1F=12.5 joules. An alkaline AA cell has a capacity of
something like 4 or 5 thousand joules. You can up the voltage of a
capacitor to increase capacity but the square law proportionality falls
down because the dielectric thickness has to be increased
proportionally and you lose the large area virtue of sintering. Bit
like smoothing out the squiggly bits of a coastline. And again,
material physics throw in a spanner because (roughly speaking) the
higher the permittivity of the dielectric, the poorer are its
properties. Compared with air for instance, water will give you about
80 times the capacitance but even deionised water a poor insulator
makes.
Air ships, now you're talking. Sky hooks, way to go. Slap airships a
couple of miles up and get rid of all these mobile aerial masts.
Actually similar things have been proposed for ages but few of them
ever come to maturity.
Stirling injins are indeed interesting because they are one of the few
closed system movers. Not a panacea however, only part of the arsenal
of the engineer. Arguably, solar cells would be less bothersome,
especially if polymer based devices come on line at a fraction of the
cost of present devices. Huge areas of the Middle East are good for
nothing except collecting solar rays and fermenting religious hatred.
Rather than distributing electricity, hydrolysed water could provide
facilitate a hydrogen based energy economy. In the meantime, it would
be tragically easy to cook water by day and cool it by night to provide
the energy source. There are many working fluids which would be easier
to utilise but considering the required volume, water is the first
choice. Many variations on the theme, such as dissolving a gas in the
water to be driven off and reabsorbed.
It's all a big worry though ain't it. Universally, every owner of
those stupid wind-up radios came to the conclusion that they are a
waste of time. The calculation to work out that they are dumb took
about a microsecond. Claimed to be for remoter parts of the world with
poor electricity, yea right. Gave energy conservation a bad name
amongst the chattering classes who bought the damned things.
Best
Drew
fusion and Stirling engine. Unfortunately it's that to**er from a few
years back so that's both things damned at a single stroke.
http://pesn.com/2006/03/24/9600253_Fleischmann_joins_D2Fusion/
Jerry
I've often thought that covering deserts with energy generating
equipment would be a pretty good idea.
The Israelis use solar collectors on their roofs to provide hot water,
I think they are mandatory like having an air raid shelter and air con
in cars.
The water is darn hot - I nearly scalded myself.
I did not realize that those clockwork radios were a waste of space,
the idea is appealing.
Did you ever read a book called 'The Ugly American', it is a novel
about a couple in Vietnam who come up with simple inventions to make
the locals' lives easier
- one was a bamboo frame a bicycle was dropped into to generate
electricity etc.
Drew
To raise a mass of one kilogram by one meter takes aprox 9.8 joules.
Bear in mind that an AA cell has a capacity of an amp hour or there
about, at an initial nominal 1.5 volts. That works out at four or five
thousand joules on a good day, ie one amp x 1.5 volts x 3600 secs. That
equates to raising a kilogram by something like four or five hundred
meters. So relate that to the handle on those daft wind-up radios -- to
match the energy of four AA cells you'd have to do the equivalent
work of lifting a kilogram a couple of kilometres into the air. Or say
that your body mass is 50 kilograms (though I suspect it may be
considerably more), you'd have to climb vertically 45 metres, or more
like 100 meters if you factor in losses. Not too bad, but to
'manufacture' that amount of energy by cawing a stupid little
handle 3 inches long puts the ridiculousness into perspective. Further
compare the chemical energy available from hydrocarbons with that from
batteries (~ 30:1 weight for weight) and it becomes clear that you'd
be better off farting into a fuel cell than winding a handle. However,
the wind-up concept captured the 'imagination' of so called
entrepreneur designers and well meaning ignoramuses so the stupit
things sold by the truck load. Didn't thank you in Africa, coupled
with the fact that the crappy plastic gears wore out after half an
hour, though very few actually reached that stage. Ended up running on
batteries, price, sound and functionality compromised by winding gear,
thence short trip to skip. So rather than providing a vital media
communication to the third world, they only added to land-fill. Dumb or
what!
Not of course that one should ever discount apparently dead-end
alternatives such as wind-up or capacitor charge. Both do have their
place. Who is to say that some revolution won't change things. There
may be a dielectric which could do miracles, especially with advances
in amorphous / non-amorphous, single layer structures. Calculation of
the electrostatic forces is quite amusing but I shan't bore you with
detail. And much as I despise some aspects of what goes on in Israel,
they do get a progressive act together, taking advantage of anything
going. Solar collectors are a damn good example.
'The Ugly American'. No, 'Winnie the Poo' is my lot.
Interesting line on providing useful stuff to the Third World but did
anyone actually ask the Third World if that is what they wanted. Did
you ever see a good few years ago 'Car for Africa'? Super it was,
easily built, easily maintained, suitable for rotten roads. Africans
hated it. Just wasn't what they wanted. They wanted Toyota Land
Cruisers, bit like kids want Coke or the latest Nokia. Rational never
comes into it. Same story for wind-up radios, even if they did work
properly. In a mud hut in Deepest Darkest there would be a definite
stigma in having to wind your radio rather than being modern with
batteries. Me I couldn't give a damn, nor I suspect you, but that's
education for you.
Best
Norman
and you try telling that to the kids of today.
Best
Jerry
- an AA battery is quite a powerful little beast
Strange how I've not heard anything about how lousy those radios really
are, I suppose there is a degree of 'liberal censorship' going on.
As for Israel, personally I reckon that they are given an unreasonably
bad press, basically they just want to be left alone, but it is not
that easy when you have suicide bombers and nutters firing rockets at
you. Oddly they rub along quite well with their domestic Arabs.
Africa is peculiar, they seem to have a 'cargo cult' mentality. I've
only been to Ghana and Sudan, but what I saw fits in with what I've
heard.
Drew
@ 12 volts for a second. that comes to 1200 joules which could be
saved. Hey that'll be in the region of 2^10 joules a day in Britain
which equates to about a quarter of a megawatt. Plus of course you
could use smaller batteries which would last longer too so another
bonus for the environment. Maybe I'll patent the idea.
Yes Israel is a tricky one. Can't blame the Palestinians for getting
a little tetchy though. I know the land grab is a little fuzzy round
the edges but it still basically boils down to being dumped upon by
superior power. Israelis don't of course resort to barbaric suicide
bombing of civilians, no need when you can use tanks, rockets and
aircraft. A bit one sided. Think the killing ratio is something over
3:1. However I think I know which side of the fence I'd rather live
on because I do respect the modernity of the Israelis. Convoy mate of
mine was in Palestine and he loved the people and without actually
hating the Israelis he did end up detesting what the system was doing
to the dispossessed. Viewing what has been done throughout history to
the weak by the strong, I couldn't disagree with him. But Jeez do
they ever have to get their act together and get real.
Best
Jerry
- they landed up with a lot more territory than they expected
- and the embarrassment of a population that they really did not want
to absorb for demographic reasons.
The settlements were an idiotic mistake, fortunately all sane Israelis
now recognize this.
The thing is that none of Israels four wars were instigated by Israel,
(Ok they jumped first in 1967 but they had no choice, and Suez was a
peculiar case) and in each case they were vastly outnumbered.
They also made repeated attempts to bolster Arafat - they actually
armed him, only to find those arms being used against them.
Now there is the ridiculous situation where Hamas are in power, which
in many ways is quite good, because they are competent and not corrupt.
The trouble is that Hamas do not understand the concept of compromize,
personally I find that incomprehensible, but it is possible that Hamas
genuinely believe that the Israelis are immigrants.
While the Israelis do use tanks and rockets, they are grossly
misrepresented, those operations are carefully targeted either at known
people or known locations. Their intelligence is very efficient. The
real casualties are from small arms fire, when they are attacked by
mobs of stone throwing kids backed up with snipers.
Now we are probably going to see prosperous Arab towns 'handed back' to
the West Bank, probably much to the disgust of the inhabitants.
Personally I feel rather sorry for the majority of the inhabitants of
the West Bank and Gaza, but they are victims of their own population,
not the Israelis.