A Time For Concern? But Don't Panic Second
Norman
1) The USA going economically bust by mid March 2006 at latest unless
congress agrees to increasing the debt limit (printing more money) and
2) The first stage of a war, possibly going nuclear, between Israel and
Iran starting around April 2006.
It is reported that the USA will reach it debt ceiling of $8.2 trillion
sometime in mid February 2006. The Federal Reserve could keep the
situation going for another month after which time Congress would have
to agree to increase the debt ceiling. The most likely scenario is that
Bush will write out one hundred times "I must try harder" and
Congress will increase the ceiling to infinity, paying for it with
worthless dollars. Less likely scenarios are that they borrow money
from the IMF and WB, agree to abide by their stringent conditions and
sit in line behind the rest of Africa, or they just plain go broke.
Prudent fiscal policy doesn't seem to come into it. I have also heard
(unsubstantiated comment) that Saudi Arabia has sold off all of its US
debt to a third party. It doesn't bode well when major players loose
confidence in a countries currency and once the news is out it will not
be long before others start looking over their shoulder. If a run on US
Bonds occurs then America could be forced to relinquish metal reserves
used to back up the debt. Platinum and rhodium, two very rare and
expensive metals which are used in automobile catalytic converters are
found in only three places in the world one of which is the USA. But
this mine is now owned and operated by the Russians.
Bush has given approval to the nuclear watchdog to report Iran to the
UN Security Council. This seemingly tactical posturing apparently has
enormous repercussions. Ivadinnerjacket has thrown the Russian
reprocessing offer off the table. Russia and China (not sure of their
involvement at this time) agreed to the reprocessing deal so long as
nothing was done (like referral of Iran to the UNSC) before March. This
is the time Iran planned to tell to US to shove their worthless dollar
and start trading oil in Euros. According to some, this is the real
reason behind the war in Iraq. But with the US military stretched in
Afghanistan and Iraq they do not have the capability of bringing
democracy to Iran without completely pulling out of Iraq and leaving it
to all parties to sort out the ensuing civil war for themselves. It
also appears that Russia and China are hedging that the US economy
might not make it through until the US elections later this year. If
America closes shop this would give China a hell of a problem since the
US is their biggest creditor. In such a case they would take the metal
reserves put up as collateral for the deal but realising the cash and
developing other markets would give them a headache.
Israel, whilst accepting American protection has been demonstrating an
ambivalent attitude about which side of the fence they are sitting on.
Now they have just found out that their protector has just slipped a
knife between their ribs since the referral of Iran to the UNSC also
proposes a totally nuclear free Middle East. The idea of Israel
abandoning its nuclear capability because Iran may have one in five to
ten years time would only occur to someone of special mental dexterity.
With America overstretched and not practically capable of entering the
Iran arena and Israel feeling it has been double dealed by its former
friend especially since it is surrounded by enemies, it might just be
inclined to get some retaliation in first; more so if Sharon is
replaced by an ultra hard liner. History has not shown the Israelis to
go in for protracted American style wars. Any action is likely to be
quick and overwhelming especially against an advisory with a much
larger land mass. They might also be inclined to take Hammas out along
the way.
Wait and see - Shuffle up America.
Best
Drew
point out to the few rampaging Muslims that your religion (and of
course all others) offends *me*. Nay, it is the duty of the educated to
satirise religion in the hope for a better world. I however don't
advocate beheading believers. Shuffle up though.
Best
Jerry
control the lender, rather than the lender controls you.
Since the USD is the most widely used trading currency, it would be
almost impossible for the USD to go through the floor (well most people
would not want it to happen).
I did not know that the Russians were investing in natural resources in
the US.
- that is fascinating
As much as anything, the US's balance of payments problem is down to
people being eager to store dollars - the Chinese in particular,
although it is pretty easy to see what they are up to, they are
snapping up natural resources in preparation for the time when the
concentrate on producing for their internal market.
Very astute.
The US has, in my opinion, being playing rather a crafty game with the
EUR
- deliberately keeping it overvalued, which makes life hard for
European exporters
- of course Europe is terrified that the EUR should appear weak, so
they have to go along with it
Iran is a bit of a problem, that dinner jacket guy seems to be right
off his trolley.
My take is that the USA is contemplating 'regime change' by encouraging
insurgency.
They've been dropping hints on the World Service.
I doubt that Israel would drop a nuclear weopon, much more likely a
targeted bombing raid as they did on Iraq. Frankly I think it is
unlikely that they are not keeping a very close eye on the Iranian
atomic research, they probably know more about it than most Iranians.
The devious thing to do would be to engineer an 'accident', a sort of
mini Chernobyl, where it is difficult to pin down responsibility. A
particularly nasty accident could also have some interesting side
effects on the Iranian regime.
Another trick would be to encourage the Iranian Kurds, it would nark
Turkey, but it could be worth it. The Iranians have been complaining
about the British stirring things up in the area adjacent to Basra -
possibly true, but if so just in retalliation.
We tend to forget that most Iranians are not Arabs, that gives plenty
of scope for tapping on the fault lines to see what falls apart.
If Hamas were smart, they would get respectable, but as it is they seem
to be yakking about a return to 1967 borders. The joke is that implies
returning the West Bank to Jordan, and the Jordanian nomenclatura
detest the Palestinians.
There is also the stumbling block of East Jerusalem (if not all of it).
There is not an iota of a possibility that Israel will give that up,
nor the settlements immediately adjacent to it. They are incredibly
proud of that area, and to be fair, they have done an amazing job both
of restoration and new construction using the same materials.
Prince Charles would be very impressed.
Israel will happily give up settlements on the West Bank, provided they
are behind the Wall, it is just a matter of getting the more hysterical
section of their populace used to the inevitability.
Personally I would stage ordered withdrawels, dismantle and demolish
the synagogues, and then hand the rest of the property over to specific
locals, complete with deeds.
That would put the cat amongst the pigeons, as those with the property
scrap with people trying to take it off them.
Incidentally, any settlers who do not want to leave, can stay behind,
but get stripped of their citizenship - and their passports get stuck
on a blacklist. That would shift them.
Fairly recently I learnt that Israel maintains a 10 mile security strip
between the West Bank and Jordan - I'll bet it is with the full
cooperation of the Jordanians. If they could stitch up the Syrian
border they could simply let the West Bank rot. Incidentally Israels
drugs tend to come in from Egypt, over the desert - something I learned
on my last visit.
We had lunch in an Arab town near the airport, which is supposed to be
a major dealing centre.
This Moslem stuff is amazing, they make themselves look such savages,
in some ways it is useful that they display their true colours. The
police were quite right not arresting them, a spot of photography, if
possible mark them with something fluorescent and tail them back home.
I'll bet that MI5 has been recruiting Sikhs and Hindus like crazy over
the last 4 years, the guys and gals behind the ringleaders were
probably 100% recruits.
Nice to see that they've sent that guy dressed as a suicide bomber back
to serve the rest of his sentence, and Abu Hamza's conviction is rather
good, although I expect he was probably more useful acting as a magnet
for nutters.
Funny that nobody has been talking about blasphemy, there is a lot to
be said for separation of Church and State.
Personally, however, I would be tempted to make people declare their
religions, and compel all Moslems to attend the mosque (and pray nine
times a day), the penalty for non compliance being prosecution for
perjury.
Another upside would be that we, with similar views, would have to keep
up a stream of mockery.
Actually, I think I registered myself as a Jedi Warrier on the last
census, they did not have a box for an-theist (sic).
Hmm.. if I'm wrong about the USD and Iran, then we could be in for a
rather unpleasant time, I think I'll nip out to the off licence and
drown my thoughts....
Regards
Drew
five stars for that last cogitation Jerry, reeking of sobriety. You
coalesce my nebulous thoughts.
Did you by any chance listen to the News Quiz tonight? Andy Hamilton
got right stuck into the loony protesters and said he couldn't be
beheaded because he hasn't got a neck.
Re the Jedi warrior, did they not come sixth in the last census. I
myself don't profess to be an atheist, because there isn't a word
for non-believers in the Loch Ness Monster so why should there be a
word for something immeasurably more unlikely. As you say, an-theist.
And Norman is where........?
Best
Jerry
- no way will I permit that
Gurgle have just lost the plot.
Sadly I missed the news quiz - I was catching up on my alcohol quota.
I vaguely remember that Jedi warriors came well above the level to be
defined as a 'real religion', but the birks changed the rules.
I suspect that Benny the bunny has been chewing again.
Drew
long lost the temptation to click willie nillie so you shall remain
unstarred, so to speak.
Andy Hamilton also said that Danish imports have been banned in some
places -- that'll be alcohol and bacon then.
Best
Jerry
- they are compiled programs that can be incorporated in a browser
Very dangerous, and totally irresponsible of Microsoft
The curious thing is that Gurgle is a Linux house, one would expect
them to shun such perversions.
No wonder the Moslems get so stroppy, no booze or bacon must be quite a
problem.
Interestingly, the three most offensive cartoons were cooked up by
Danish (resident) Moslems
- in theory they are the ones who should be beheaded.
Drew
recalcitrant circuitry to work. So Braistormings won.
The 'stars' seem to have disappeared. Still mucking about in the
background they are.
>totally irresponsible of Microsoft
Well, duh. Like they have a mature outlook on things. What is mega
pissing me off at the moment is voluminous quantities of spam from some
bunch of con-artists called 'Smart Money Equities". Can't get my
spam filter to automatically reject and bounce them, the slightly iffy
aforementioned MailWasher. However I've just discovered that base64
encoding is often now employed by spam parasites and it renders the
content unreadable to anti-spam software. As with open-relays, legit
mail virtually never uses base64 so all I need to do is filter
"base64" in the header. We shall see tomorrow. Not that I have any
notion whatsoever what base64 is........life's too short. Feel free
to educate me though.
Someone also said on 'The News Quiz', that rules for what one
shouldn't eat made perfect sense in previous millennia --
refrigerators!
Best
Jerry
- just the blacklist and whitelist
I find Mailwasher slightly shaky, it seems to like being loaded first
and not unloaded, also on my machine it prefers to be fully loaded
before I load up anything else.
I give it 9 out of 10 for concept, but the implementation is pretty
manky.
It is written in Delphi, so I'm rather surprized that it is a bit
amateur.
Base64 is just a way of turning characters outside the raw ASCII range
into something that fits into ASCII - basically turning pictures into
text.
This is quite a good explanation :-
http://email.about.com/cs/standards/a/base64_encoding.htm
I detest those equity pushing boiler shops, periodically I get them on
the 'phone and give them a hard time. Amazing that people fall for it,
but they must do.
When I get into power, I'll trace them, implement lightning raids and
apply Sharia Law to their hands and their tongues. Oddly I once knew a
guy who had worked in a boilershop in Denmark, and was a 'financial
advisor' locally.
I'm a good listener, and he loved bragging of his scams.
- I would have recategorized him as sub human
- his 'ethics' were unbelievable - fortunately he left town in a hurry
Sound stuff the Kosher diet in a dodgy climate, but too much hygiene is
dodgy, one needs to build up a degree of resistence
- there is also the 'prestige' test, I've noticed that the locals like
to see how squeamish us Anglos are
- you get major brownie points for tucking into their grub.
Norman
appeared.
One way of dealing with the unsolicited telephone calls is with the
simple expedient of cutting right across their pitch with "What is
your full name and what is your telephone number so I can call you
back" Just keep playing broken record and find out how quickly they
disappear.
I haven't heard of acetylene lamps since I was at school, I have no
idea where I would go to buy calcium carbide but I guess the guys with
the lamps know.
On Sharia Law, did you hear about the Arab guy with all rough stitches
around his wrist, his friend came up to him and said "I see the
appeal was successful then".
So far as nasty things on the internet goes, I got three free trial
periods on Norman Sandbox anti virus before they caught on that I was
simply taking it off and reloading it. I have a full version of Norton
but prefer not to put it on especially after what Jerry said about it
taking over every aspect of your machine. I can see how this might have
occurred as an extension of their utilities whose function is to
monitor everything possible. I now rely on the cable companies anti
virus because I figure it is in their own interests to have the latest
definitions but because it is not detectable on my machine I keep
getting a "Your computer might be at risk" dialogue boxes, about
five of them which appear as windows loads up.
Other nasty things in your computer might be the CIA (no joking) who
will have us noted through our ISP addresses as subversives. This seems
to be the latest chapter in America spying on Americans.
http://prisonplanet.com/articles/february2006/140206bloggers.htm
I have been really busy of late. When there are only three active
members it becomes kinda noticeable when we disappear in groups of two.
What was supposed to be a free weekend for catching up was hastily
rearranged when three year olds father had to work (ha ha) and
couldn't take her. Finished up with us taking her to town to keep her
quiet (ha, ha). She is one of those that wakes up talking and keeps it
going until she finally falls asleep. It is getting more stressful for
an old codger like me. Any theories on why grumpiness is directly
proportional to age? Sunday disappeared with relatives. Would have
preferred it to have disappeared with relations but you can't have
everything. Any theories on why we can't have everything? Nah that
one is not even worth starting with.
I see that Bushco is pumping up the rhetoric on Iran, even though
Pakistan and N Korea pose more of an immediate threat. Also it is
becoming more and more obvious that the decision to invade has already
been taken and the consequences of that decision have not been thought
through. It is an exact rerun of Iraq. But they have right on their
side so this time it will be different. He has not enough ground forces
for an invasion and air strikes alone have never worked before. It is
being said that if the invasion occurs the dollar will finally crash
through the floor. A conflict could go any number of ways with Israel
being seriously crippled if Pakistan or China become involved. China
cannot possibly afford for Iran to fail especially after putting in a
major pipeline to divert Iran's oil East instead of West.
This is going to sound wussy but I don't care. Present company
excepted of course, every now and again you come across someone with
that very rare ability to strip all the varnish off a situation and get
right to the heart of a particular matter with a simplicity and clarity
of vision that leaves you astounded. I have recently found such a
writer called Arthur Silber and I have been spending the little bit of
spare time I have catching up with some of his past work. There is no
reason for you to agree with my view of course but I recommend you to
dip into one or two of his offerings and see what you think. His Iran
series and Torture series together with Armageddon articles are major
works in my view. He is very prolific and runs two blogs "Once Upon A
Time" and "The Sacred Moment".
http://powerofnarrative.blogspot.com/
To change tack, this is a subject that I was a bit reluctant to bring
up again since it was the only one so far that Drew has become arsey
with us when we were not adequately able to develop his views. I have
not read it through properly and don't know if addresses Drew's
concerns but it exposes a lot of inadequacies in Darwin's work and
points to the latest thinking.
That is enough for this hit.
Best
Norman
another go
Best.
Norman
Norman
http://theunjustmedia.com/
Darwinism%20Refuted/
Darwinism%20Refuted/
Darwinism%20refuted%20
table%20of%20contents.htm.
Not Best
Drew
forty or so to deal with every night.
I tend to be awfully rude to cold callers. Even trained my Mither to do
likewise. Since this phone is Telephone Preference registered it is an
offence. Pointing out to cold callers that the actual person who is
calling can be prosecuted usually inspires them to put the phone down
on me. A result! "F*** off* is pretty successful too.
Thankfully I'm free from pop-ups (must be an age thing) but you
should download some cleansing freebies Norman if you're getting
them. Usually they are trivial but not always. As for the CIA in my
computer, well come and get me.
You make grumpiness sound like a failing. I always viewed it as a
maturing features to which I aspire. Anyway, grumpiness leads to
dissent, subversion and hogwash filtering. Were it not for grumpiness
we'd all knuckle down to Shrub's puerilities. Have not some of the
world's greatest thinkers put it down to grumpiness. Girning for
freedom. Bet Arthur Silber is grumpy.
Was I arsey with Darwinism response? I thought you responded with
typical clarity and consideration. I do actively keep the modifications
in mind all the time because they explain virtually every contradictory
mystery of Darwinism. Which is more than can be said for that link
Norman. 'Twood appear to be agenda driven. Starts off with a few
crude truths then wanders off in bizarre pseudo science ignorance. Lot
of it about I'm afraid. Thing is that I don't ever decry Darwin,
only those who accept it as 'gospel'. Darwin wouldn't have
objected to advancement or reasoned debate of his theory, nor did he
ever claim unique orogeny. As Kurt Vonnegut would say, "So it
goes."
Best
Jerry
- a depressing vision of a cockup, tantrum or 'accident'
Also a self preservation instinct, Old roses grow sharp thorns.
I'm reserving those links for when I've got a really clear mind
- that might be some time
My take on the Iran thing is a bit different
- N Korea is doing a mating dance with S Korea, even the Bush analysts
can't be daft enough not to realize what is going on - especially when
they precipitated the N Korea ruck by cutting off the supply of cheap
oil.
Pakistan is not much of a problem, the nomenclatura hate the
fundamentalists and are busy picking them off while we all (sensibly)
turn a blind eye.
Iran is just peculiar - the guy is playing brinkmanship, but I can't
see what he has to gain.
I see a really nasty Chernobyll style accident when one of their
centrifuges spontaneously disintegates discharging a cloud of uranium.
- it'll be a dodgy bearing - something like that
Noticed that China is making 'nicely nicely' with Burma ?
One has to hand it to them, they are playing a dead smart game.
I just had a look at Arthur Silber
- interesting stuff - I think I'll post this now and continue reading
Jerry
- a spectacular system crash
I should really use one of my later 'boxes', but I like this one
I think I can see where Silber is coming from
- he is wrong about 'overseas intervention' starting with 1898
Most likely it started during the Napoleonic Wars
- it was certainly in full flood when they used a gunboat to crack open
Japan
Teddy Roosevelt's saying: 'Speak softly and carry a big stick'
(or should it be flaunt 'a big dick')
probably summarizes the problem.
When self image is essential people do ridiculous things
- making oneself feel good by obtaining respect in other peoples' eyes
is a doomed task if you just don't understand what makes the other
people tick.
There is another strand, one I've noticed, as have others.
It is what I call: 'The Travel Bug'
- one can get an immense kick from going into a different environment,
looking at it with fresh eyes, seeing black and white without the
disadvantage of technicolour confusing the issue.
It happens to senior executives of companies who go multi-national, it
also happens to politicians.
Couple that with adulation, some real, some opportunistic, and one has
a very heady mixture.
Personally I am not as pessimistic as Silber.
There are people around who know what is going on
- some people do learn from history, and others look to history to
match patterns and find different solutions - anything other than the
one that is failing.
Sometimes, seditiously, people give deliberately bad advice, in order
to force an early precipitation.
I smell something similar going on now, actually I've smelt it for some
time, far too many screw ups, too many things going wrong.
It makes me think of situations where the people running a
company/organization have lost confidence in 'top management' - what
takes place is not exactly sabotage, well not exactly, but the safety
nets tend to disappear.
The NCOs do not exactly 'frag' their officers, but they don't warn them
about the minefield.
My uncle was in Burma, he told me about a number of such instances,
also about things that are not written in history books - the victor
writes the history.
Someone has stuck the Golden Eye Ointment on the stye, and it will come
to a head very soon.
(did you know a lowly police constable could now force an ISP to remove
this post - just on the basis of his/her/its opinion)
- something will happen in Iran, but it will be hard to trace
Iraq may well become an evacuation zone
Afghanistan can replace The Oman as a 'sandpit', with the Pakistanis
pushing over the 'shooting ducks', which suits all concerned - nothing
like a live fire play pen.
Something funny is going on
- the odd thing is that I reckon our FO is smirking
Teddy should have said 'Speak softly, and mind your ... '
Saludos
Norman
- the odd thing is that I reckon our FO is smirking
Others have been wondering the same thing, why Britain has been
following America into every stupid conflict around the world. Then
they turned it around and said what if 'Money' was orchestrating
all these conflicts coordinated through our FO, pushing the American
hawks into claiming the glory and then picking up the mineral rights in
these now impoverished war torn countries. Not Blair I think, he is
just a marionette that will not say no to any conflict. I do hope he
says no to B2 landing rights if Iran comes off. Maybe Straw et al, oil,
industry, Jewish money etc.
Well it is a plausible theory.
Best
Jerry
- I doubt others are that enthusiastic
I saw no problem with Afghanistan, since the Afghans were probably
pretty keen on getting rid of the outsiders, so that they could get
back to scrapping with each other.
Iraq was a major mistake, initially I thought we went in to act as a
moderating influence, even though it was just plain stupid.
With Iraq, I guess the Israelis and their supporters were fairly keen,
Saddam was more of a menace to them than anyone else, but I can't see
them wanting a totally destabilized Middle East, as someone is bound to
take a pop at them.
Do you remember the Three Days of the Condor, it could be that fiction
turned into reality, actually that is quite amusing considering that is
essentially the plot.
US money was definitely interested. I suspect they are not so keen now.
I think I've mentioned before that just before Iraq I was having lunch
with some old friends of mine who are well connected - West Point etc
They said: 'We need to establish a permanent base in the area, from
which we can reach out and get at the terrorists'.
Obviously this is a bit dim, as the centre is Saudi, and the Saudi
nomenclatura don't much like Al Qaeda, but they would not exactly
welcome an invasion.
Ironically they kicked out the US forces - not unpredictable :-}
I suspect that really was a good part of the US's rationale
- and if our FO knew about it, they would have been handing out rope to
Blair.
The man is an idiot. I am amazed he passed his Law degree.
Norman
Wrt your West point friends remark:
They said: 'We need to establish a permanent base in the area, from
which we can reach out and get at the terrorists'.
Could this be to what they were refering.
http://www.alternet.org/waroniraq/32320/
Best
Jerry
(quoting from a guy on the ground) soldiers tend to make themselves 'at
home'.
My guys were referring to building a client nation, rather than
isolated bolt holes in the desert.
The ironic thing is that they pretty much had that in Saudi.
Actually, it would probably be quite a good idea to withdraw into
distant bases and leave the locals to scrap with each other. If the
place descended into complete chaos, it might make the neighbours think
a bit.
You would have thought that the USA would have learnt from Vietnam, or
even Somalia.
Regards
Norman
Jerry
I suppose that looking back, the USA has always benefited economically
from wars
In 1914 they were nett importers of agricultural machinery, in 1917
they were nett exporters.
1939 (joke) to 1945 was quite handy
Vietnam kept the economy booming
Some how, I think that this one will reverse the trend
- now that Shrub's term is drawing to a close, it will be interesting
seeing what happens