Reliability prediction is a method of estimating the probability of failure and the mean time between failures (MTBF) of a system or a component based on various factors, such as environmental conditions, stress levels, quality levels, and part characteristics. Reliability prediction can be used to compare different design alternatives, identify weak points, allocate reliability goals, and assess compliance with reliability requirements.
One of the most widely used reliability prediction models is MIL-HDBK-217F Notice 2, which was developed by the US Department of Defense in 1995. MIL-HDBK-217F provides failure rate models for various types of electronic components, such as microcircuits, discrete semiconductors, passives, connectors, soldered assemblies, electro-optical/mechanical devices, and others. However, MIL-HDBK-217F has some limitations and drawbacks, such as being outdated, overly conservative, inconsistent, and not applicable to some modern technologies.
To address these issues, ANSI/VITA 51.1 was developed by the VITA Standards Organization (VSO) in 2008 and reaffirmed in 2013. ANSI/VITA 51.1 is a subsidiary specification that provides standard defaults and methods to adjust the models in MIL-HDBK-217F Notice 2. ANSI/VITA 51.1 is not a revision of MIL-HDBK-217F Notice 2 but a standardization of the inputs to the MIL-HDBK-217F Notice 2 calculations to give more consistent and realistic results.
ANSI/VITA 51.1 covers the following aspects of reliability prediction:
The adjusted failure rate (Î) of a component is calculated by multiplying the base failure rate (Îb) by all the adjustment factors (Q, E, T, S, L, A). The adjusted failure rate of a system is calculated by summing up the adjusted failure rates of all its components.
ANSI/VITA 51.1 can be downloaded as a PDF file from this link.[^1^] More information about reliability prediction methods and models can be found at this website.[^2^]