
2 September 2026
The world is likely to cross the Paris Agreement’s key 1.5°C warming threshold within the next few years, intensifying extreme weather and threats to ecosystems, glaciers and low-lying coastal cities, according to the UN Environment Programme.
With an “overshoot” now extremely likely, governments must focus on limiting how far and how long temperatures remain above 1.5°C. UNEP said returning temperatures below the threshold remains possible but “highly uncertain.”
Even if every existing national climate pledge is implemented, warming is projected to peak at approximately 1.8°C above preindustrial levels. Under current government policies, median warming is projected to reach roughly 2.6°C by 2100.