Are programmers becoming obsolete?
Parker, Jeffrey R.
With more & more companies moving away from Third Generation
Languages and into Fourth Generation Languages, what do you believe
is the future for people who know how to program in languages such
as C? Are our skills becoming less & less marketable as companies
go for pre-packaged software and away from in-house development?
Jeff
Robert Emerick
>Jeff
There has been much written lately on the future of the American Programmer,
both at a commercial level (commercial software development) and at an
internal level (developing in-house applications). I can only comment on
in-house development. I am on the business side of a company that maintains
a huge software development budget. I am often closely involved in the
development process and I have a good grasp of 4th GL "tools". What I don't
have is the time to commit to extensive use of such tools. This is the
direct result of specialization. In general, as we progress in life we are
expected to become the "experts" in our field. This won't happen if I need to
commit more time to learning how to "program". I do see the evolution "hybrid"
programmers that will spend more time involved in the business side, using 4th
GL tools to do their work. Bottom line, there will always be a need for
programmers.
Bob
pwpa...@news.delphi.com
Thirty years (or more) ago, the same thing was said about
data/key entry operators...
If you are concerned, you could always take up a permanent profession--
there will always be a need for those to fix fries or collect garbage...
:)
ADK...@caer.uky.edu
Yes there will be less demand for "pure" programmers. Why? The large software
programs (operating systems, commercial software...) will become more
concentrated into fewer software houses as competition shakes out the
weaker products. That'll mean less demand for programmers. The new shops,
the innovaters, enterpreneurs, etc do not generally have very many, anyway.
No, if you have a marketable skill in some other area as well as the ability
to program well. There are tons and tons of programs which need to be written.
You must, however, be knowledgable in the field in which the program is to
be used. For example, I have a degree in engineering, as well as computer
science. I write programs for scientists and engineers. They like it because I
understand where they are coming from and where they are going. I can see
potential problems and "rewrite" the specs as I go. I like it because I get
to pick their brains and learn new stuff. I also enjoy it MUCH more than
just being an engineer.
If you have a backgroud in Chemistry, there are lots of places that can use
you... ditto engineering, microbiology, astronomy, health care, ....... The
possibilities for synergism are endless.
You had better be prepared for user support as a large part of what you do
besides programming. That's true for consultants, independent programmers,
or employees.
In short, my crystal ball says you better know something besides pure
programming.
Mark Frank
must possess both of:
1. The ability to understand the problem at hand from the end-user's
perspective. Frequently, the programmer needs to understand the problem
*better* than the end-user. IMHO, the end-user frequently can't even
define the problem, they simply find themselves mired in inefficiency or
an unsolvable problem.
2. The ability to formulate and implement a reasonable solution based on
resources available and time constraints imposed.
You see, it's really an interface issue for the programmer. The
programmer must be able to see beyond the technical aspects of the
hardware/software environment. Understanding the real-world problems and
being skilled at creating real-world solutions are they keys to success.
As a medical professional, I must regretfully say that software
applications (read "solutions") in the medical world have suffered
because most programmers have not met #1 or #2. The problem is
particularly bad in the medical care industry because most hospitals
initially used mainframes for accounting, then the MIS folks were
appointed to develop medical information management systems (something
they knew nothing about). They didn't understand the problems, they
couldn't construct viable solutions, and (motivated by the need for job
security), the last thing they would do is admit it. The pathetic lack of
tools for effective information management and analysis in medical care is
a primary contributor to the skyrocketing costs of medical care today. By
and large, hospitals can't accurately correlate the cost of care with the
outcome of care. Almost all information is still paper-based, a lot is
illegible and incomplete, and it's impossible to get a good enough grip on
what's been done in order to get a good idea of what works and what
doesn't.
My little soapbox, I know. But you (programmers) are a major player in
the solution to this problem.
======================================================================
Mark S. Frank Department of Radiology
fran...@u.washington.edu University of Washington
(206) 223-3561 Voice School of Medicine
(206) 287-8560 Fax Seattle, WA
Vince Scarafino
>From: "Parker, Jeffrey R." <KCQL%MARISTB.BITNET at UGA.CC.UGA.EDU>
>Subject: Are programmers becoming obsolete?
>Hello All,
>
> With more & more companies moving away from Third Generation
>Languages and into Fourth Generation Languages, what do you believe
>is the future for people who know how to program in languages such
>as C? Are our skills becoming less & less marketable as companies
>go for pre-packaged software and away from in-house development?
>
>Jeff
Fourth Generation languages have a long way to go before they can solve
complex problems. Brains are what is most marketable and will continue
to be.
Vince
Yossi Oren
>Come on Yossi help us with your input on this one. I think that what
>ever happens we will still need programmers to write the 3rd & 4th
>GLs any way.
>
>The way windows is written you need a programmer to get it to work on
>a network any way, especially if you work with students that like to
>screw up all your work (security)!!!
The best solution to the 4GL programmer obsoletion, IMHO, is telling those big
corporate meatheads that 4GLs are ALSO too hard for them, following up by a
sentence involving DLLs, and then say it should be done by us. This is quite
successful over here, where we're developing in SuperCard (Mac) and Access
Basic... ;-)
Yossi.
Liz Jarman
ever happens we will still need programmers to write the 3rd & 4th
GLs any way.
The way windows is written you need a programmer to get it to work on
a network any way, especially if you work with students that like to
screw up all your work (security)!!!
> Hello All, >
> With more & more companies moving away from Third Generation
> Languages and into Fourth Generation Languages, what do you believe
> is the future for people who know how to program in languages such
> as C? Are our skills becoming less & less marketable as companies
> go for pre-packaged software and away from in-house development?
>
> Jeff
>
Liz Jarman INTERNET L.Ja...@shu.ac.uk
Computer Services JANET L.Ja...@uc.ac.shu
Sheffield Hallam University
Psalter Lane Tel No +44-532-740
Sheffield S11 8UZ Fax No +44-532-603
England.
Parker, Jeffrey R.
> corporate meatheads that 4GLs are ALSO too hard for them, following up by a
> sentence involving DLLs, and then say it should be done by us. This is quite
> successful over here, where we're developing in SuperCard (Mac) and Access
> Basic... ;-)
> Yossi.
That will only work for so long... Eventually, even the people who
believe that 4GL's are too difficult, will hear from their peers that
it is not & it is verrrrrrrry do-able with muchhhhhhhhhh less cost to
them. I know. It's happening where I work.
Jeff