Fwd: IN: Habibie might not care for vice-presidency (BizTimes)

[Alex G Bardsley]

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[1]AsiaOne Home Page BT Online:Views 19 Nov 1996

Habibie might not care for vice-presidency

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THE BOTTOM LINE :
By S N Vasuki
I
NDONESI A's technology czar B J Habibie has traditionally figured in
every political analyst's shortlist of vice-presidential candidates.
But recent comments made by the high-profile Mr Habibie have led some
analysts to arrive at a startling conclusion -- that he may not
actually be interested in the job.

Mr Habibie, who is state minister for research and technology, hit the
headlines recently when he suggested President Suharto "may wish to
retire" after his current term expires in March 1998.

"We have to keep in mind that in 1998, Pak Harto will be 77 years
old," he said. "It would also not be wise of us if we did not allow
him to enjoy his old age." Mr Habibie then went to add that
Indonesia's post-1945 generation, which presumably includes himself,
was ready to take over the reins of power.

Everyone seemed surprised by Mr Habibie's comments. The minister was
seen as cruising in dangerous waters by suggesting President Suharto
should step down after his term expires in 1998.

Of course, this is a simplistic assumption because Mr Habibie also
happens to be a close confidant of the president and there are no
signs that he has fallen out with Mr Suharto.

Indeed, anecdotal evidence suggests that this has been an
extraordinary year for Mr Habibie. He successfully organised the
Indonesia Air Show, he was at the president's side during his medical
check-up in Germany and has been put in charge of key projects such as
accelerating growth in eastern Indonesia and the Natuna natural gas
development.

This has led many analysts to believe that Mr Habibie is the only
serious contender for the vice-president's post in 1998. There has
been some speculation that Mr Habibie's supporters within the
government have been actively persuading him to seek a higher position
in government, including the vice-presidency. As state minister for
research and technology, Mr Habibie, on paper at least, has
considerably less clout than the other senior ministers in Mr
Suharto's Cabinet.

The critical question then is whether Mr Habibie's recent
pronouncements indicate a desire on his part to seek higher office.
Indonesian journalists asked him this in as many words in East Java
two weeks ago. Mr Habibie's evasive response: "People can make plans,
but it is Allah who decides. For me what is important is not the
position, but what I can contribute to the nation."

Significantly this question has not been asked of the other supposed
vice-presidential contenders -- Planning Minister Ginandjar
Kartasasmita, Information Minister Harmoko and Armed Forces Chief of
Staff General Hartono -- suggesting that Mr Habibie's candidacy is
being taken virtually for granted by the local media.

Of course, the person who knows some of the answers, President Suharto
himself, has preferred to remain silent on the issue of his candidacy
for the 1998 elections. Mr Suharto has fended off questions on the
issue by stating that the People's Representative Assembly has the
ultimate power to nominate and elect a president. Nevertheless, the
widely held belief in Jakarta is that the president will most probably
seek a record seventh term in 1998.

In that context, Mr Habibie's comments that Mr Suharto "may wish to
retire" is either a subtle message to Indonesians about Mr Suharto's
intentions or simply one of the state minister's famous off-the-cuff
remarks.

Either way, it does not help Mr Habibie's advancement to the
vice-presidency because the race has not even started and President
Suharto's choice of a running mate is one of the best kept secrets in
town. Mr Suharto is not particularly known to be comfortable with
potential vice-presidential candidates openly bidding for high office.

Mr Habibie's recent pronouncements then only make sense if they are
seen as comments made by a well-regarded friend of the first family.
It surely follows that Mr Habibie does not appear to be particularly
keen to become vice-president.

His enthusiastic promotion of his controversial zig-zag theory for
reducing interest rates, which has been widely criticised as
unworkable, suggests that Mr Habibie's immediate political ambitions
appear to be focused on securing a senior economic position in Mr
Suharto's next cabinet.

Of course, the presidential election is 15 months away and that is a
long time in politics. Will Mr Habibie disappear from the spotlight?
That will surely be a sign of his vice-presidential aspirations.
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The writer is BT's Jakarta correspondent
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)Copyright Singapore Press Holdings Ltd, 1996. All rights reserved.