LA Times Poll of California
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CALIFORNIA.
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Rob Cioe
LA Times
******LA TIMES POLL ALERT******
WILSON RATINGS RISE, BUT MOST OPPOSE
HIS POSSIBLE PRESIDENTIAL BID
Governor trails Dole in GOP sweepstakes;
Loses to Clinton in general election match-up.
Two-thirds of voters back proposed ballot measure
to ban state racial and gender
preferences.
Governor Pete Wilson's job approval score is the highest in nearly 4
years, but most California voters still don't want him to get into the 1996
presidential race according to a Los Angeles Times statewide survey conducted
March 4 through 9.
The poll of 1,390 adults, including 1,011 registered voters, finds 47% of
Californians now like the job Wilson is doing, up from 38% late last October.
This is the highest rating Wilson has garnered in Times Polls since May 1991
when his approval stood at 52%.
Still, Wilson has yet to cross back above the all-important 50% approval
mark, and almost as many residents (44%) dislike his leadership as like it.
When voters are asked if Wilson should enter the 1996 presidential
election, they say ''no'' by a wide 63% to 29%. Even among registered
Republicans, 59% oppose a Wilson presidential bid.
Those are not surprising numbers: voters in states where governors are
pondering presidential runs often oppose such candidacies early on. Right now
Californians are thinking of Wilson as a newly reelected governor and not
presidential timber, and that could change with a wisely-run campaign. But
the governor has his work cut out for him, in both the primary and general
election
venues. When Republicans are asked to volunteer their choice for the
nomination, a 41% plurality remains undecided. Among those with a choice,
Kansas Sen. Bob Dole gets the most support by far (27%,) with Texas Sen. Phil
Gramm backed by only 9%. Wilson comes in 3rd, with 6% support. Two other
announced candidates, former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander and Indiana Sen.
Richard Lugar, are each picked by just 1%.
In a general election matchup against President Bill Clinton, Wilson would
currently lose to the President by a 51% to 42% margin. In contrast, Dole
would narrowly best Clinton: 48% to 45%. Due in part to their low name
recognition, the three announced GOP candidates for President do poorly
against Clinton: the President currently beats Gramm 51% to 31%, Lugar by 48%
to 26% and Alexander by 50% to 26%.
The poll is a patchwork quilt of other good and bad news for the governor.
On the good side, more Californians say the state is going in the right
direction (32%) than at anytime since the opening months of his term.
Economic ratings are also better than late last year, though marginally so.
By 41% to 30%, the GOP outpolls the Democrats as the party better suited to
handle the state's problems, a major Republican gain since last Fall. An
overwhelming 66% of voters favor the Wilson-endorsed ballot initiative to end
racial and gender preferences in state hiring and education. And, by a
narrower 51% to 40%, residents support Wilson's refusal to implement the new
federal ''Motor Voter'' law, on the grounds that it is an unfunded federal
mandate.
Not all the other poll findings are favorable for Wilson, however. Despite
relative improvements, most Californians (55%) still think the state is off
on the wrong track, and most (57%) still feel the economy is mired in
moderate or severe recession. The centerpiece of Wilson's economic program,
his 15% income tax cut proposal, produces division in the state: 48% favor it
but 44% are
opposed. So does a Wilson trial balloon for a ballot measure changing the way
gubernatorial vacancies are filled. Forty-six percent of voters favor passing
an initiative that would change the law so a vacancy would be filled by a new
special election; 47% want the current system, where the Lieutenant Governor
automatically succeeds, preserved.
State residents favor assistance for Orange County
Most Californians think it's in the state's interest to help
financially-pressed Orange County and a majority specifically backs the idea
of providing the country with substantial state loan guarantees.
By 54% to 33%, residents across the state agree that some kind of aid for
the county is necessary, and 57% support loan guarantees while just 35%
oppose them. The poll finds a surprising degree of consensus among different
groups and in different parts of the state on these questions; with people of
varying political persuasions, ideologies and regions generally expressing
support.
How the Poll Was Conducted
The Times Poll interviewed 1,390 adults statewide by telephone March 4-9.
The sample includes 1,011 registered voters. Telephone numbers were chosen
from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques
were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. Interviews
were conducted in English and Spanish. The sample was weighted slightly to
conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region of the
state. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is plus or minus 3
percentage points; for the sample of registered voters it is plus or minus 4
points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll
results can also be affected by other factors, such as question wording and
the order in which questions are presented.
SELECTED RESULTS FROM THE TIMES
CALIFORNIA POLL OF MARCH 4-9.
A full results summary with all results will be available through the Los
Angeles Times Poll at a later date.
CALIFORNIA POLITICS
(AMONG all adults)
Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction
or are they seriously off on the wrong track?
Now 10/94
Right direction 32% 27%
Wrong track 55 64
Don't know 13 9
Do you think California is in an economic recession, or not?
Now 10/94
No recession 22% 16%
Mild recession 17 16
Moderate recession 29 32
Serious recession 28 31
Don't know 4 5
Which party, the Democrats or the Republicans, do you think can do a better
job handling the problems California faces today?
Now 10/94
Democrats 30% 38%
Republicans 41 34
Neither 14 12
Both equally 7 5
Don't know 8 11
Who do you think has the better ideas for how to solve the problems this
country currently faces: President Clinton or the Republicans in Congress?
Clinton 37%
Republicans 42
Both equally 5
Neither 9
Don't know 7
APPROVAL RATINGS
(AMONG all adults)
Now
10/94
Approve Disapprove Approve
Disapprove
Pete Wilson 47% 44 38%
53
Bill Clinton 50% 41 50%
43
Barbara Boxer 34% 33 na
na
Dianne Feinstein 43% 40 35%
46
CA. State Legislature 27% 52 na
na
Presidential Politics
Do you think Bill Clinton should be the Democratic Party's nominee for
President in 1996?
Registered Democrats
Yes 55%
No 36
Don't know 9
Should Wilson seek the 1996 Republican presidential nomination?
Registered voters Registered Republicans
Yes 29% 34%
No 63 59
Don't know 8 7
Who would you like to see the Republican Party nominate as its candidate for
president in 1996?
Registered Republicans
Bob Dole 27%
Phil Gramm 9
Pete Wilson 6
Lamar Alexander 1
Richard Lugar 1
Others 15
Don't know 41
GENERAL ELECTION MATCH-UPS
(AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS)
Clinton 45% Clinton 48%
Dole 48 Lugar 26
Clinton 51% Clinton 50%
Wilson 42 Alexander 26
Clinton 51% Clinton 40%
Gramm 31 Dole 38
Perot 18
STATE ISSUES
(AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS)
An initiative has been proposed for the 1996 California ballot that would
prohibit the state or localities from using race, sex, color, ethnicity or
national origin as a criterion for either discriminating against or granting
preferential treatment to any individual or group in public employment,
public education, or public contracting. Do you favor or oppose this
proposal?
All Whites Blacks Latinos Asians
Favor 66% 71% 45% 52% 54%
Oppose 26 21 48 41 35
Don't know 8 8 7 7 11
(Among all adults)
In order to increase voter turnout, Congress recently passed a law requiring
states to provide citizens an opportunity for registering to vote when they
get a driver's license or apply for some form of public assistance. Governor
Wilson has refused to implement the law in California, saying that the
federal government has provided no funds for the program and the state cannot
afford to enforce it. Do you think Wilson should implement the new voter
registration law as passed by the federal government, or do you support his
position refusing to implement the new law?
Wilson should implement law 40%
Support Wilson in not implementing law 51
Don't know 9
Governor Wilson has proposed a 15 percent cut in state income taxes, to be
phased in over the next three years. Wilson says the cut is needed to keep
the economy growing and his advisors say the tax cut can be financed because
the state's improving economy will generate more tax revenue. Opponents say a
tax cut is impossible right now because they say the state has a lackluster
credit rating, limited money reserves and cash flow problems. Do you favor or
oppose Wilson's proposal for a 15% income tax cut over the next 3 years?
Favor 48%
Oppose 44
Don't know 8
(AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS)
If Governor Pete Wilson were elected President in 1996, Democratic Lieutenant
Governor Gray Davis would automatically succeed him under current law. Wilson
aides are considering a statewide ballot initiative to change current law so
that a special election would be held to choose Wilson's successor rather
than having Davis become governor. Would you favor or oppose such a change in
state law?
Favor 46%
Oppose 47
Don't know 7
ORANGE COUNTY BAILOUT
(AMONG ALL ADULTS)
In order to help Orange County recover from its financial crisis, the state
government could guarantee substantial loans to the county. Under such a
plan, the state would have to pay the loans only if Orange County failed to
do so. Would you favor or oppose providing state loan guarantees to help
Orange County?
Favor 57%
Oppose 35
Don't know 8
Do you think it is in the long-term interest of the state to assist Orange
County in recovering from its financial crisis or would it be better for the
state to stay out of the situation?
In long-term interest of state to assist 54%
Better for state to stay out of situation 33
It depends 5
Don't know 8
(END)
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