Japan 39;s Ageing Society
Adrienne Borgman
Japan has the highest proportion of elderly citizens of any country in the world.[1] 2014 estimates showed that about 38% of the Japanese population was above the age of 60, and 25.9% was above the age of 65, a figure that increased to 29.1% by 2022. By 2050, an estimated one-third of the population in Japan is expected to be 65 and older.[2] Population aging in Japan preceded similar trends in other countries, such as South Korea and China.[3][4]
The aging of Japanese society, characterized by sub-replacement fertility rates and high life expectancy, is expected to continue. Japan had a post-war baby boom between 1947 and 1949, followed by a prolonged period of low fertility.[5] These trends resulted in the decline of Japan's population after reaching a peak of 128.1 million in October 2008.[6] In 2014, Japan's population was estimated to be 127 million. This figure is expected to shrink to 107 million (by 16%) by 2040 and to 97 million (by 24%) by 2050 if this current demographic trend continues.[7] A recent global analysis found that Japan was one of 23 countries that could see a total population decline of 50% or more by 2100.[8] These trends have led some researchers to claim that Japan is transforming into a "super-ageing" society in both rural and urban areas.[9]
Japanese citizens largely view Japan as comfortable and modern, with no widespread sense of a "population crisis".[6] The Japanese government has responded to concerns about the stresses demographic changes place on the economy and social services with policies intended to restore the fertility rate as well as increase the activity of the elderly in society.[10]
From 1974 to 2014, the number of Japanese people 65 years or older nearly quadrupled, accounting for 26% of Japan's population at 33 million individuals. In the same period, the proportion of children aged 14 and younger decreased from 24.3% in 1975 to 12.8% in 2014.[11] The number of elderly people surpassed the number of children in 1997. Sales of adult diapers surpassed diapers for babies in 2014.[12] This change in the demographic makeup of Japanese society, referred to as population aging (kōreikashakai, 高齢化社会),[13] has taken place in a shorter period of time than in any other country.
According to population projections based on the current fertility rate, individuals over the age of 65 will account for 40% of the population by 2060,[14][15] and the total population will fall by one-third from 128 million in 2010 to 87 million by 2060.[16] The proportion of old Japanese citizens will soon level off. However, due to stagnant birth rates, it is estimated that the proportion of young people (under the age of 19) in Japan will constitute only 13 percent in the year 2060, decreasing from 40 percent in 1960.[5]
Economists at Tohoku University established a countdown to national extinction, which projects that Japan will have only one remaining child in 4205.[17] These predictions prompted a pledge by Prime Minister Shinzō Abe to set a threshold for population decline at 100 million.[10][12]
Japan's life expectancy was 85.1 years in 2016:[19] 81.7 years for males and 88.5 years for females.[20] As Japan's overall population shrinks due to low fertility rates, the proportion of the elderly increases.[21]
Japan's total fertility rate, or TFR, the number of children born from each woman in her lifetime, has remained below the replacement threshold of 2.1 since 1974, and reached a historic low of 1.26 in 2005.[11] In 2016, the TFR was 1.41 children born per woman.[20] Experts believe that signs of a slight recovery reflect the expiration of a "tempo effect," arising from a shift in the timing of children being born rather than any positive change.[25]
A range of economic and cultural factors contributed to the decline in childbirth during the late 20th century: later and fewer marriages, higher education, urbanization, increase in nuclear family households (rather than the extended family), poor work-life balance, increased participation of women in the workforce, a decline in wages and lifetime employment, small living spaces and the high cost of raising a child.[26][27][28][29]
Many young people face economic insecurity due to a lack of regular employment. About 40% of Japan's labor force is non-regular, including part-time and temporary workers.[30] Non-regular employees earn about 53 percent less than regular ones on a comparable monthly basis, according to the Labor Ministry.[31] Young men in this group are less likely to consider marriage or to be married.[32][33] Many young Japanese people also report that fatigue from overwork hinders their motivation to pursue romantic relationships.[34][35]
Although most married couples have two or more children,[36] a growing number of young people postpone or entirely reject marriage and parenthood. Conservative gender roles often mean that women are expected to stay home with the children rather than work.[37] Between 1980 and 2010, the percentage of the population who had never married increased from 22% to almost 30%, even as the population continued to age,[11] and by 2035 one in four men will not marry during their prime parenthood years.[38] The Japanese sociologist Masahiro Yamada coined the term parasite singles (パラサイトシングル, parasaito shinguru) for unmarried women in their late 20s and 30s who continue to live with their parents.[39]
A government survey released in June 2022 said that among singles, 46.4% desired to get married, while around a quarter explicitly preferred to remain single (26.5% of men and 25.4% of women). Common reasons for forgoing marriage include the loss of freedom, financial burden, and housework. Hitherto unmarried women cited the burden of housework, childcare and nursing care as major reasons, with men citing financial and job instability. Some women also stated a desire not to change their surname.[40]
In 2015, 1 in 10 Japanese adults in their 30s reported having had no heterosexual sexual experiences. After accounting for people who may have had same-sex intercourse, researchers estimated that around 5 percent of people lack any sexual experience whatsoever.[41] The percentage of 18 to 39-year-old women without sexual experience was 24.6% in 2015, an increase from 21.7% in 1992. Likewise, the percentage of 18 to 39-year-old men without sexual experience was 25.8% in 2015, an increase from 20% in 1992. Men with stable jobs and a high income were found to be more likely to have sex, while low-income men were 10 to 20 times more likely to have had no sex experience. Conversely, women with lower income were more likely to have had intercourse.[42][a] Men who are unemployed are eight times more likely to be virgins, and men who are part-time or temporary employed had a four times higher virginity rate.[43]
According to a 2010 survey, 61% of single Japanese men in their 20s, and 70% of single Japanese men in their 30s, call themselves "herbivore men" (sōshoku danshi), meaning that they are not interested in getting married or having a girlfriend.[44]
A 2022 survey by the Japanese Cabinet Office found that around 40% of unmarried Japanese men in their 20s have never been on a date.[45] By comparison, 25% of young adult women said they never dated.[45] It is estimated that 5% of married men and women who have had zero dating partners have used konkatsu (short for kekkon katsudo, or marriage hunting, a series of strategies and events similar to finding employment) services to find a spouse.[45]
Demographic trends are altering relations within and across generations, creating new government responsibilities and changing many aspects of Japanese social life. The aging and decline of the working-age population has triggered concerns about the future of the nation's workforce, potential economic growth, and the solvency of the national pension and healthcare services.[46]
Elderly Japanese have traditionally entrusted themselves with the care of their adult children, and government policies still encourage the creation of sansedai kazoku (三世代家族, "three-generation households"), where a married couple cares for both children and parents. In 2015, 177,600 people between the ages of 15 and 29 were caring directly for an older family member.[49] However, the migration of young people into Japan's major cities, the entrance of women into the workforce, and the increasing cost of care for both young and old dependents have required new solutions, including nursing homes, adult daycare centers, and home health programs.[50] Every year, Japan closes 400 primary and secondary schools, converting some of them to care centers for the elderly.[51]
In 2008, it was recorded that there were approximately 6,000 special nursing homes available that cared for 420,000 Japanese elders.[52] With many nursing homes in Japan, the demand for more caregivers is high. Nonetheless, family caregivers are preferred in Japan as the main caregiver, and it is predicted that Japanese elderly people can perform activities of daily living (ADLs) with fewer assistance and live longer if their main caregiver is related to them.[52]
The Greater Tokyo Area is virtually the only locality in Japan to see population growth, mostly due to internal migration from other parts of the country. Between 2005 and 2010, the population of 36 of Japan's 47 prefectures shrank by as much as 5%.[11] Many rural and suburban areas are struggling with an epidemic of abandoned homes, 8 million across Japan in 2015.[54][55] Masuda Hiroya, a former Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications who heads the private think tank Japan Policy Council, estimated that about half the municipalities in Japan could disappear between now and 2040 due to the migration of young people, especially young women, from rural areas into Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya, where around half of Japan's population is currently concentrated.[56] The government is establishing a regional revitalization task force and focusing on developing regional hub cities, especially Sapporo, Sendai, Hiroshima and Fukuoka.[57]
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