WP1 : work progress and launching of a technical WG dedicated to predictive approaches (October 21, am)

[Etienne Branquart]

Dear colleagues,

Please find hereafter the structure of WP1 contribution that should be finalised in the framework of the activities of the 'biodiversity and climate change' forum animated by the Belgian Biodiversity Platform.

1. Climatic projections in Europe, with a focus on Belgium
2. Species adaptability and vulnerability to climate change (e.g. dispersal, demography, ecological plasticity, etc.)
3. Ecosystem adaptability and vulnerability to climate change (incl. resistance/resilience issues)
4. Interactions between climate change and other biodiversity drivers (specialist species endangered)
5. Climate change threats to biodiversity in Europe
6. How much is Belgian biodiversity likely to be affected by climate change at the end of the Century?
7. Consequences for human well-being

Most of those points could be easily developed based on a review of recent scientific literature and I'm currently working on it (a first draft will be available for comments and discussion in early October). Any comment on this structure is of course welcome.

However, as you know, detailed information for point 6 is rather limited and scientific work should be performed before being able to have a clear vision on species and ecosystems the more at risk in Belgium and on the intensity of species turnover and extinction based on climatic predictions.

To go out of the woods, I think we can produce rapidly a first report with rather limited contents for point 6 (+ message addressed to funding bodies that this gap should be filled urgently) and launch in parallel a small working group in charge of gathering information and starting developing predictive approaches. It could be done for a few taxonomic groups for which detailed distribution data are available at the Belgian scale (e.g. vascular plants,  bryophytes?, butterflies, dragonflies, grasshoppers?, fish, amphibians and birds). Work should be purely scientific in a first step, with the objective to produce as soon as possible high level scientific publications.

Three approaches have been proposed so far in this direction, based on (i) bioclimatic classification (Alain Hambuckers),  (ii) species life-history traits (Sandrine Godefroid) and (iii) bioclimatic modelling (Dirk Maes & Nicolas Titeux). More information on those approaches will be posted very soon on this forum...

Please note that a discussion meeting will be organised for those of you who are interested to develop further the technical aspects of predictive approaches and are willing to contribute scientifically in those issues, with the goal to exchange ideas and share responsibilities. The meeting will take place on October 21 (9:30h) at BELSPO, Rue de la Science 8 Wetenschapsstraat, 1000 Brussels (near the Luxembourg railway station ; see : http://www.belspo.be/belspo/about/acces_en.stm). Thanks to confirm your possible participation to this meeting.

Best regards,

Etienne Branquart
Belgian Biodiversity Platform
http://www.biodiversity.be

[Sandrine Godefroid]

Dear Colleagues,

To initiate the discussions within WP1, I'm sending you in attachment a short description of my approach aiming to identify those plant species potentially threatened by climate change in Belgium.

Best regards,

Sandrine Godefroid


Etienne Branquart a écrit :

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Dr. Sandrine Godefroid
National Botanic Garden of Belgium
Domein van Bouchout
B-1860 Meise
Phone: 02/260.09.20 (ext. 275)
Fax: 02/260.09.45
e-mail: sandrine....@br.fgov.be
Website: www.botanicgarden.be

[Sandrine Godefroid]

I forgot the attachment in my previous message... Sorry !

Sandrine


Etienne Branquart a écrit :

[Alain Hambuckers]

Here is a summary of the work I undertook on taxa  sorting according to their distribution.

Alain Hambuckers