Climate change working group
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MAES, Dirk
Sep 19, 2008, 9:43:56 AM9/19/08
to biodiversity-an...@googlegroups.com
Dear
colleagues,
Both last year and
this year, Nicolas Titeux (Lippmann Institute, Luxemburg) and I spent some time
in Finland with Miska Luoto, Risto Heikkinen and Lluis Brotons with money
from the so called LapBiat projects (Lapland Biosphere Atmosphere) to learn more
about and actually do some species distribution modelling and the impact of
climate change. Attached you will find this year's project description together
with the abstract of a recently submitted paper on the possible effect of
climate change on three invertebrate groups (grasshoppers, dragonflies and
butterflies) in Belgium. This might help to start a discussion on how to proceed
from here ...
All
best!
Dirk Maes &
Nicolas Titeux
======================================================================
Dear colleagues,
Please find hereafter the structure of WP1 contribution that should be finalised in the framework of the activities of the 'biodiversity and climate change' forum animated by the Belgian Biodiversity Platform.
1. Climatic projections in Europe, with a focus on Belgium
2. Species adaptability and vulnerability to climate change (e.g. dispersal, demography, ecological plasticity, etc.)
3. Ecosystem adaptability and vulnerability to climate change (incl. resistance/resilience issues)
4. Interactions between climate change and other biodiversity drivers (specialist species endangered)
5. Climate change threats to biodiversity in Europe
6. How much is Belgian biodiversity likely to be affected by climate change at the end of the Century?
7. Consequences for human well-being
Most of those points could be easily developed based on a review of recent scientific literature and I'm currently working on it (a first draft will be available for comments and discussion in early October).
However, as you know, detailed information for point 6 is rather limited and scientific work should be performed before being able to have a clear vision on species and ecosystems the more at risk in Belgium and on the intensity of species turnover and extinction based on climatic predictions.
To go out of the woods, I think we can produce rapidly a first report with rather limited contents for point 6 (+ message addressed to funding bodies that this gap should be filled urgently) and launch in parallel a small working group in charge of gathering information and developing predictive approaches. It could be done for a few taxonomic groups for which detailed distribution data are available at the Belgian scale (e.g. vascular plants, bryophytes?, butterflies, dragonflies, grasshoppers?, fish, amphibians and birds). Work should be purely scientific in a first step, with the objective to produce asap high level scientific publications.
Three approaches have been proposed so far in this direction, based on (i) bioclimatic classification (Alain Hambuckers), (ii) species life-history traits (Sandrine Godefroid) and (iii) bioclimatic modelling (Dirk Maes).
I would like to ask you if you would agree to be involved in this 'prediction' working group and be present at a discussion meeting to be planned to exchange ideas and share responsibilities. In the affirmative, I'll make this proposal in a few days to the whole forum and ask who is interested to be involved in that working group. Potential dates for a meeting are: October 13, 20, 21 and 24. Thanks to let me know asap if you any preference for some of them?
Thank you very much in advance for your contribution. Very best regards,
Etienne Branquart
Belgian Biodiversity Platform
http://www.biodiversity.be
PS: Alain, Sandrine and Dirk, would you be so kind to prepare a short description of your approach (from a few lines to maximum 2 pages) to be sent to the forum at the end of this week?
Please find hereafter the structure of WP1 contribution that should be finalised in the framework of the activities of the 'biodiversity and climate change' forum animated by the Belgian Biodiversity Platform.
1. Climatic projections in Europe, with a focus on Belgium
2. Species adaptability and vulnerability to climate change (e.g. dispersal, demography, ecological plasticity, etc.)
3. Ecosystem adaptability and vulnerability to climate change (incl. resistance/resilience issues)
4. Interactions between climate change and other biodiversity drivers (specialist species endangered)
5. Climate change threats to biodiversity in Europe
6. How much is Belgian biodiversity likely to be affected by climate change at the end of the Century?
7. Consequences for human well-being
Most of those points could be easily developed based on a review of recent scientific literature and I'm currently working on it (a first draft will be available for comments and discussion in early October).
However, as you know, detailed information for point 6 is rather limited and scientific work should be performed before being able to have a clear vision on species and ecosystems the more at risk in Belgium and on the intensity of species turnover and extinction based on climatic predictions.
To go out of the woods, I think we can produce rapidly a first report with rather limited contents for point 6 (+ message addressed to funding bodies that this gap should be filled urgently) and launch in parallel a small working group in charge of gathering information and developing predictive approaches. It could be done for a few taxonomic groups for which detailed distribution data are available at the Belgian scale (e.g. vascular plants, bryophytes?, butterflies, dragonflies, grasshoppers?, fish, amphibians and birds). Work should be purely scientific in a first step, with the objective to produce asap high level scientific publications.
Three approaches have been proposed so far in this direction, based on (i) bioclimatic classification (Alain Hambuckers), (ii) species life-history traits (Sandrine Godefroid) and (iii) bioclimatic modelling (Dirk Maes).
I would like to ask you if you would agree to be involved in this 'prediction' working group and be present at a discussion meeting to be planned to exchange ideas and share responsibilities. In the affirmative, I'll make this proposal in a few days to the whole forum and ask who is interested to be involved in that working group. Potential dates for a meeting are: October 13, 20, 21 and 24. Thanks to let me know asap if you any preference for some of them?
Thank you very much in advance for your contribution. Very best regards,
Etienne Branquart
Belgian Biodiversity Platform
http://www.biodiversity.be
PS: Alain, Sandrine and Dirk, would you be so kind to prepare a short description of your approach (from a few lines to maximum 2 pages) to be sent to the forum at the end of this week?
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Hans Van Dyck
Sep 22, 2008, 2:51:48 AM9/22/08
to biodiversity-an...@googlegroups.com
Hoi Dirkito,
Fijn dat jij ook input geeft voor die federale oefening. Zelf moet ik
dringend ook nog een ontwerptekst schrijven rond climate change and
management strategies.
Zit momenteel in Oslo (tem woensdag) voor EU review panel Biodiversa.
Vorige week nog in Leipzig praatje gaan geven op Eureco-congres. Was leuk,
maar de vermoeidheid begint toch wel stilaan sporen na te laten...
Hoe is het met jouw gezondheid? Gaat het opnieuw de goede kant uit?
Hopelijk wel.
Groetjes,
Hans
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