Dec Recap

[Chris Boyd]

Hi All, Our December meeting covered much ground discussing both Kahneman's System I and II and Mlodinow's ideas about how System I sometimes distorts our estimates of probability and statistics and our critical thinking skills in System II.  The ten of us there were all active in the discussion.  Much fun for me. I have an inside track that we are very likely to make it past December 21, so that I can wish you all a Happy New Year knowing that it is possible. Our first meeting of the new year will be Jan 12 at Kepler's at 4P.  Refreshments and snacks are available at Cafe Barrone next door and we can bring them into Kepler's. Our book now available at Kepler's at 15% discount is: The Perfect Swarm: The Science of Complexity in Everyday Life by Len Fisher“Self-organization” reveals itself in the inanimate worlds of crystals and seashells, but as Len Fisher shows, it is also evident in living organisms, from fish to ants to human beings. Fisher shows how we can manage our complex social lives in an ever more chaotic world. His investigation encompasses topics ranging from “swarm intelligence” to the science of parties and the best ways to start a fad Our February 9 book is   Paradox: The Nine Greatest Enigmas in Physics by Jim Al-Halili.  How can a cat be both dead and alive at the same time?  Why will Achilles never beat a tortoise in a race, no matter how fast he runs?  And how can a person be ten years older than his twin?Al-Khalili narrates the enduring fascination of these classic paradoxes, he reveals their underlying logic.  In doing so, he brings to life a select group of the most exciting concepts in human knowledge.  Paradox is mind-expanding fun. I hope to have it available at Kepler's for the January meeting. Serendipity: Howie Mandell hosts a new game show called Take it All on NBC at 9P.  It is showing all week on a trial basis.  The first three sections of the game are similar to White Elephant or Blind Pick and Swap gift exchanges in which participants can swap for other gifts.  After three rounds two people are left for the final battle.    The final battle is a modified Prisoner's Dilemma.  There are two choices each player must make:  Take It All or Keep Mine.  If both players play Keep Mine then they each keep all prizes earned to that point plus two randomly chosen bonus monetary prizes.  If one player goes Take it All and the other plays Keep Mine, TIA gets both contestants prizes and KM gets 0.  If both players go TIA then both get 0.  In Prisoner's Dilemma, Temptation is greater than Cooperation Reward is greater than Both Defecting is greater than Suckers play.  In Take It All,  Both Defecting equals Sucker equals zero. In the Evolution of Cooperation,  the study concerns the iterated Prisoner's Dilemma where players can develop reputations, history counts, and groups tend to cooperate over time for the best competitive advantage as well.  In the one time play of PD, there is no history and the best strategy is to defect.  Take It All is taking on  a hybrid nature.  The first day,  one defected by TIA taking all, and the other went KM getting nothing.  The second day,  both went TIA each getting nothing.  The third day, both cooperated with KM, both getting 100K + in prizes.  So while each game is a one time play of PD,  the public memory of past games is developing a reputation and so far has tended to mutual cooperation.  Might be interesting to follow up for a little lab experience with Prisoner's Dilemma. Happy Reading and New Year, Chris Boyd