Record-breaking opium crop destabilizes Afghanistan
Pastor Dale Morgan
Record-breaking opium crop destabilizes Afghanistan*
By Jon Hemming
Reuters
Saturday, August 25, 2007; 10:08 PM
KABUL (Reuters) - Afghanistan's poppy harvest is expected to top all
records this year as the country spirals deeper into a vicious circle of
drugs, corruption and insecurity.
A United Nations report due on Monday will announce that Afghanistan is
now producing nearly 95 percent of the world's opium, up from 92 percent
in 2006, officials and diplomats say.
This marks the sixth straight year of rises since U.S.-led and Afghan
forces toppled the Taliban in 2001 -- despite hundreds of millions of
dollars pumped into programs to halt cultivation, processing and
trafficking of the drug.
"It is a very bad situation definitely, and the government has not been
able to deal with it in the right way, otherwise it should have at least
been stabilized or contained," said Christina Oguz, the head of the U.N.
Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) in Afghanistan.
"The same goes for the international community."
Afghanistan is locked in a vicious circle in which drug money corrupts
government and helps fund the Taliban insurgency. That weakens state
control over parts of the country, which in turn leads to more
insecurity and more drug production.
The scale of the problem is huge. Opium and the heroin made from it are
estimated to be worth some $3 billion to the Afghan economy, about a
third of its gross domestic product.
SECURITY WEAK
Security is key. The Taliban managed to drastically reduce the 2001
poppy crop as they held most of the country firmly under their control
and implemented strict punishments for offenders.
Now, some 70 percent of opium production comes from provinces in the
south where the Taliban insurgency is strongest.
People who have seen the UNODC and Afghan Counter-Narcotics Ministry
report say one of the few bright spots in it is the rise in opium-free
provinces from six last year to around 10 in 2007 -- all in the north
where security is best.
Both traffickers and the Taliban have a common interest in instability
and lawlessness, Afghan and foreign officials say.
"Traffickers are equipping and providing funds for terrorist
organizations that are responsible for many attacks in Kabul, other
parts of the country and other parts of the world," said
Counter-Narcotics Ministry spokesman Zalmay Afzaly.
Insecurity also leads farmers to plant poppy, as fighting may prevent
them from getting perishable crops to market.
"The great thing about opium is that it lasts for 20 to 30 years -- it's
money in the bank," said a senior Western diplomat. "So if you're not
sure you can get your onions or carrots to market as they may go off
because it's too insecure to move, then you grow opium and put it under
your bed -- it's a currency."
While foreign forces regularly inflict crushing battlefield defeats on
the Taliban, even optimists do not expect an end to the insurgency
anytime soon.
CARROTS AND POPPIES
Meanwhile, the notoriously corrupt, poorly equipped and badly paid
Afghan police are unlikely to be able to do much to stop drug producers
and traffickers, let alone the kingpins that run the trade and have thus
far remained free from prosecution.
The Afghan Counter Narcotics Ministry says it has not had enough
evidence to bring corrupt officials to book.
The United States had championed aerial spraying to eradicate poppy
crops, but that idea has been quietly dropped for another year due to
objections from the Afghan government, worried about adverse public
reaction, diplomats say.
Instead, Washington unveiled a carrot-and-stick strategy this month
giving greater financial incentives to Afghan provincial governors to
combat drugs while stepping up coordination between counter-narcotics
and counter-insurgency forces.
That should help governors in the north who have successfully fought
poppy cultivation, but have missed out on most of the aid which is spent
in the south where drug production has spiraled.
Total U.S. aid for Helmand, the biggest opium-producing province, is
$200 million this year. If Helmand were a country it would be the fifth
biggest recipient of U.S. aid, diplomats say.
But better irrigation and agricultural methods can sometimes backfire.
"They use it for growing opium," said Oguz. "This is telling the rest of
the country 'grow opium and we'll give you a lot of rewards, we'll give
you aid'."
The decision to plant opium is often not related to poverty and the lack
of alternative crops. The lush strip of land along the banks of the
Helmand River is one of the most fertile farming areas in Afghanistan
and was once the country's bread-basket.
Rather, the driving force behind opium production is a nexus of
traffickers, insurgents, powerful landowners and corrupt officials,
experts say.
The plan agreed by the Afghan government and major donors is to break
the links between these elements in what is likely to be a prolonged
campaign of public awareness, alternative development, crop eradication,
tackling traffickers, law enforcement and judicial reform.
"The problem is enormous and progress is very small," said Oguz. "Unless
the international community and the government together are very
determined ... we will not see enough change for a very long time."