Extreme Drought taking deadly toll on Kansas wheat, hay crops
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Pastor Dale Morgan
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May 16, 2011, 1:36:40 AM5/16/11
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Perilous
Times and Climate Change
Extreme Drought taking deadly toll on Kansas wheat, hay
crops
BY DAN VOORHIS
The Wichita Eagle
Fourth-generation farmer Kent Winter says a lack of moisture
will likely cause one of his wheat crops to be harvested as animal
fodder.
FILE - This May 4, 2011 file photo, taken from a Kansas
National Guard helicopter, shows the contrast between an irrigated
wheat field and surrounding agricultural land stressed by drought
in Haskell County, Kan. With much of the nation focused on a
spring marked by heavy rain, historic floods and violent storms,
Texas and parts of surrounding states are in the midst of a
searing drought rivaling conditions in some of the world's driest
deserts.
Extreme Drought
FILE - This May 4, 2011 file photo, taken from a Kansas
National Guard helicopter, shows a dry field in Haskell County,
Kan., that has failed to grow wheat because of lack of moisture.
The region has severe drought conditions. With much of the nation
focused on a spring marked by heavy rain, historic floods and
violent storms, Texas and parts of surrounding states are in the
midst of a searing drought rivaling conditions in some of the
world's driest deserts.
ANDALE — Kent Winter plucks a stalk of wheat and bends it to
expose the leaves, which are brownish, papery and curled into a
tube.
"That's the lack of moisture," he said.
He figures that the field of non-irrigated, double-crop wheat
behind his house is a goner. He'll probably harvest it as animal
fodder after the insurance man pays him for his loss.
The alfalfa in the next field could still be worth something if it
rains heavily in the coming weeks. There's no insurance on the
alfalfa.
"The dryland alfalfa is a disaster," he said, gazing out over the
too-short plants.
Winter said he's never seen a drought this severe in the 27 years
since he's run the farm full time.
Sedgwick County farmers aren't experiencing quite the blistering
dustbowl-like conditions of western Kansas, but it's still dry in
enough to make this a poor year for wheat and hay.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is forecasting that winter
wheat production in south-central Kansas will be down more than 20
percent from 2010.
In south-central Kansas, only about a quarter of the acreage has
adequate moisture, as of May 1, according to the USDA.
In southwest Kansas, which the state and federal governments have
declared disaster areas, just 5 percent of the land has adequate
moisture. The crop is expected to be just half of last year's
total.
On the other hand, the eastern third of Kansas, which grows the
least amount of the state's wheat, hasn't felt the drought at all
and expects its crop to be up from last year.
Let it rain
There may be good news coming for Winter and other central Kansas
farmers.
The forecast for south-central Kansas calls for three to four
inches of rain over the next 10 days, said Mike Smith of
WeatherData.
The weather formation that has caused the dry conditions since
last year, the North American Oscillation, has just moved farther
north, allowing low pressure to develop in the nation's Southwest.
Smith said that indications for the rest of May are for at least
normal rainfall. Beyond that, he said, is impossible to forecast
with any precision.
In western Kansas, Smith said, the 10-day forecast calls for two
inches of rain.
Economic impact
High wheat prices soothe much of the pain of a poor harvest.
Wheat is now selling in the neighborhood of $8 a bushel, about
twice as high as this time in 2010. Kansas State University
agricultural economist Kevin Dhuyvetter estimated that the value
of the state's harvest will still be one of the highest in the
past decade, worth more than $2 billion, based on the USDA's
latest harvest estimates.
And even those whose crop was largely wiped out won't be ruined
financially. Farmers typically insure themselves to the point
where, even if the harvest is a bust, they can at least recover
their costs.
In many cases, the insurance is structured to pay the difference
between the farmer's average yield and what the farmer actually
got that year. That would help for those who have a total or near
total loss. But with high prices, a farmer can have a lousy
harvest and still beat the insurance payout.
"Sure 50 bushels an acre would be great," Dhuyvetter said, "but 35
bushels an acre will work out, too."
After the wheat
The corn has been planted and needs moisture — soon — to prosper.
But grain sorghum and soybeans don't have to be planted yet, and
some farmers are waiting to see what happens.
"There's not enough moisture to plant beans," said Steve Jacob,
who farms 3,500 acres near Bentley. "We need some serious rain."
Heavy rain during the rest of May would free them up to start
planting. And with crop prices so high, a strong corn, grain
sorghum, soybean crop could translate into a decent year
financially for farmers — or, at least, help them better offset
the rising cost of fertilizer, fuel and other inputs.
Whatever the weather holds, said Gary Cramer, Sedgwick County
extension agent, to some extent farmers pretty much have to plant
the summer crops because that's their income for next year.
"Farming is a career based on faith," Cramer said. "You have to
have faith that things are not going to be so bad that you can't
get a crop. But it will guarantee you won't (get a crop) if you
don't put anything in the ground."