Perilous Times
From The Sunday Times
April 18, 2010
New York trembles at rapid rise in violent crime
Tony Allen-Mills in New York
When a pack of marauding youths stormed through Times Square on Easter
Sunday — some brandishing guns, others assaulting passers-by — New York
city officials shuddered.
Suddenly it seemed the bad old days of the Rotten Apple might have
returned to haunt a city proud of its safety record after more than a
decade of falling crime rates.
A few days later, statistics from the New York Police Department (NYPD)
for the first three months of this year confirmed a startling trend.
The number of murders in the first quarter of the year had shot up by
almost 22% compared with 2009, from 97 to 118. The rise in shootings
was 14%.
Compared with the crack-fuelled mayhem that the Big Apple endured at
its bloodspattered nadir in 1990 — when there were nearly 200 murders a
month — the latest mini crimewave amounts to a blip.
Yet the return to New York of atrocity-filled front pages has helped to
fuel speculation that a golden age of crime-fighting may be coming to
an end as long-term unemployment and economic pressures turn more
people to crime.
Police chiefs across the country have been warning for months that
budget cutbacks forced by the recession are reducing the number of
officers on the streets when crime may be increasing.
Rich Roberts of the International Union of Police Associations said
last week that some US police departments were the victims of their own
success. Because crime had fallen so much, politicians were concluding
they could get away with smaller forces.
“The smaller the departments, the fewer officers available on the
streets, the more encouraged the bad guys are going to be,” said
Roberts.
“There’s no deterrent better than a uniform and a marked cruiser.”
In New York, where municipal budgets have taken a huge hit because of
Wall Street’s woes, Michael Bloomberg, the mayor, has repeatedly
pledged not to lay off police officers.
Yet the NYPD, which is by far America’s largest force, is already down
to 33,000 officers from a 2000 high of 40,000. At least 1,300 jobs that
would usually fall vacant through natural attrition in the next fiscal
year will not be filled.
Bloomberg has described the recent rise in violence as “worrisome”,
although Ray Kelly, the city’s police commissioner, insisted last week
that New York remained “much, much safer”.
Other forces are less sanguine. Michael Kovalyk, the police chief of
the small Ohio town of Bellaire, has seen a rash of gun violence since
December and a doubling of assaults, drug possessions and general
unrest from February to March.
Yet his police station has been closed down because the town of 4,800
residents cannot afford enough officers both to keep it open and to
patrol the streets.
With only nine full-time officers (down from a high of 21), Kovalyk
said there were times when he had “maybe one person covering our whole
town”.
In Flint, Michigan, the former home of a General Motors manufacturing
plant, the police force was slashed by a third last month, from 150
officers to 104.
“I don’t think there’s any doubt that you’re probably going to see more
property crimes, break-ins and vandalism,” said Ed Jacques of the
Police Officers Association of Michigan. “Criminals know there’s maybe
one officer on duty on the midnight shift.”
On the causes of rising crime, he said: “You can attribute it to a lack
of police presence because of the layoffs, but when people are out of
work, they turn to crime.”
Other experts agree that the number of police has a measurable impact
on criminal activity. Yet several criminologists noted last week that
there were surprising exceptions to the trend and it might be too early
to conclude that the recession is encouraging increased lawlessness.
“We’re two-plus years into a major recession but we haven’t seen
across-the-board crime increases,” said Richard Rosenfeld, a professor
of criminology at the University of Missouri.
Across the Hudson River from New York, the New Jersey city of Newark
was formerly a gang-ravaged hellhole where at least one murder has been
recorded for every month of the past 44 years.
Yet last month Newark recorded its first murder-free month since May
1966.
“There’s a palpable sense on the streets of Newark that things are
changing,” said Garry McCarthy, the city’s police chief and a former
NYPD officer.
The disparities between big cities have made national conclusions
difficult. New Yorkers had been proud of their reputation as
crime-fighting pioneers; now they hope they are not leading the way
into a new age of urban mayhem.
Additional reporting: Marjorie Korn