Disease rising as Australia dries
Pastor Dale Morgan
*Disease rising as Australia dries
*
By Xavier La Canna in Auckland
April 10, 2007 12:28pm
Article from: AAP
* UN report tips cyclones, disease from climate change
* Murray-Darling level to drop dramatically
* More than 5000 heat-related deaths a year by 2050
CYCLONES and tropical diseases will become more common and more people
will die in heatwaves as Australia dries out, according to a new UN report.
The Australian and New Zealand chapter of the UN's Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report was released today, and it does
not make happy reading.
More climate change news
As well reiterating that the level of the Murray-Darling river system
would drop dramatically and crops would struggle as climate change
intensified, it also said Aborigines would suffer in an increasingly dry
continent.
The IPCC, set up in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organisation and
the UN Environment Program, is a collaboration between more than 2500
climate change scientists and 130 governments.
The general findings of its latest report were unveiled in Brussels last
week.
"Australia is very much the drying continent," said Dr Jim Salinger, a
lead author for the IPCC's Australasian chapter, today.
Natural hazards, such as a rise in tropical diseases and cyclones were
expected to become more common in coming years, resulting in more deaths.
"More health-related deaths in terms of heatwaves and more exposure to
pest-borne diseases such as dengue fever. On the coast of course,
particularly Queensland, exposure to ...tropical cyclones," Dr Salinger
said.
By 2050, 3200-5200 more heat-related deaths per year were expected and
up to 1.4 million more people exposed to dengue fever.
According to the final draft copy of the IPCC chapter on Australia and
New Zealand, remote Aborigines could face other dangers from climate change.
"Indigenous communities in remote areas of Australia often have
inadequate infrastructure, health services and employment ... Existing
social disadvantage reduces coping ability and may restrict adaptive
capacity," it says.
Extreme rainfall, flooding and salt inundation of freshwater supplies,
changes to mangroves and fire regimes, as well as coastal erosion and
rises in sea levels could cause problems to some Aboriginal groups.
Dr Salinger said large areas of the country were likely to have less
rainfall and soil moisture.
"This has dramatic implications for crop, pastoral and grazier land
production over much of southern and eastern Australia. So they are
looking at very serious consequences there."
While agricultural yields may initially increase, this would reverse in
the next 30-50 years as water stress worsened.
"The cropping areas will be reduced. There is a potential for large
drops. It is all the crops that are grown in the riverine areas and the
Murray-Darling basin," he said.
He said there would also be a projected drop in Australia's snow
coverage by 20-85 per cent by 2050.
"I believe that the skiing industry may not be an economic proposition.
It depends on the rate of warming entirely," he said.
He also warned that climate changes would likely lead to even bigger
reductions in the amount of water in the already stressed Murray-Darling
river system, used extensively by irrigators.
"By 2050 ... the Murray-Darling flow could decline in the order of one
quarter," he said.
Key findings
* Damage to coral reefs, coasts, rainforests, wetlands and alpine areas.
Increased disturbance, loss of biodiversity including possible
extinctions. Potentially catastrophic for some systems. Reefs may be
dominated by macroalgae by 2050 and possible extinctions of endemic
vertebrates in Queensland West Tropics. Shrinking glaciers create slope
instability.
* Reduction in water supply for irrigation, cities, industry and
riverine environments in areas where stream flow declines. In the
Murray-Darling Basin, annual mean flow may drop 10-25 per cent by 2050
and 16-48 per cent by 2100.
* Greater coastal inundation and erosion, especially in regions exposed
to cyclones and storm surges. Coastal development is exacerbating the
climate risks.
* Reduced crop, pastoral and rangeland production over much of southern
and eastern Australia and parts of eastern New Zealand. Reduced grain
and grape quality. A southward shift of pests and disease vectors.
Increased fire risk for forests.
* Design criteria for extreme climatic events, floods and storm surges
very likely to be exceeded more frequently. Increased damage likely for
buildings, transport structures, telecommunications, energy services and
water services.