Al-Qa'eda target west from Horn of Africa
Pastor Dale Morgan
*Al-Qa'eda target west from Horn of Africa*
By David Blair in Addis Ababa
Last Updated: 3:04am BST 22/10/2007
Special report
In the rapidly changing battleground against international terrorism,
the arid plains of the Horn of Africa are becoming a steadily more
significant base from which al-Qa'eda's followers can launch their attacks.
The Horn now ranks alongside the Middle East as the area of greatest
concern to British counter-terrorism officials, coming second only to
Pakistan, where al-Qa'eda's core leaders are ensconced.
Al-Qa'eda operatives based in the Horn, probably in the failed state of
Somalia, could choose to target Britain, which has a large Somali
community. Of the four men convicted for the failed bomb attacks in
London on 21 July 2005, all were from the Horn and two were of Somali
origin.
A few young Britons are also known to have travelled to Somalia in order
to fight for the country's Islamist extremists. Meanwhile, al-Qa'eda may
also strike in Kenya, which is filled with Western targets ranging from
tourists to embassies.
Last week, America's embassy in Nairobi issued a new warning. "Islamic
extremists in southern Somalia may be planning kidnapping operations
inside Kenya," it said, adding that any abductions would be targeted at
"Westerners", possibly tourists on the Kenyan coast.
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As the largest country in the Horn, Ethiopia forms the front line of
this battle. Week after week, Ethiopia's security forces are in contact
with their British counterparts. "The threats are real and immediate,"
said an Ethiopian government minister in Addis Ababa, the capital.
Until last December, a radical Islamist regime controlled much of
neighbouring Somalia. These extremists, styling themselves the Union of
Islamic Courts (UIC), captured Mogadishu, Somalia's capital, and
restored a measure of order after years of chaos.
While many leading figures in this movement had no links with al-Qa'eda,
Mogadishu and the area of southern Somalia under their control became a
magnet for foreign terrorists. In the annals of Islamist propaganda, the
UIC was praised for creating the only truly Muslim state in Africa.
Weapons, funds and armed volunteers reached southern Somalia from across
the Muslim world.
Some were probably al-Qa'eda operatives, linked to the network's core
leadership, and a few were British citizens. Whether deliberately or
not, the UIC was drawn into al-Qa'eda's nexus.
The Ethiopian minister said: "Al-Qa'eda was there and all sorts of
international jihadists were flocking to Somalia. There were terrorists
who came from many different parts of the world."
Last December, Ethiopia's army responded with a lightning cross-border
offensive, toppling the UIC and capturing Mogadishu. Hundreds of
Islamist fighters were arrested, revealing the scale of outside support
for the UIC.
"I know for sure that there were some from European countries, including
those carrying British passports,"
added the minister. Four Britons were arrested in southern Somalia and
later released. Human Rights Watch believes that about 100 other
suspects are still in Ethiopian jails, including one Canadian. It adds
that Ethiopia has allowed American security officials to interrogate them.
The CIA uses Ethiopia for "extraordinary rendition", a programme which
critics say allows suspects to be transferred to third countries for
torture and mistreatment.
But Ethiopia failed to net all of al-Qa'eda's operatives in southern
Somalia. Some leading UIC figures also escaped. Hassan Dahir Aweys, the
movement's titular head who appears on an American "watch-list" for
suspected terrorists, avoided arrest.
Aweys was once linked to an extremist group styling itself "al-Ittihad
al-Islamiya". This organisation may have played a supporting role in
al-Qa'eda's successful attacks on the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania
in 1998. Despite being the subject of an international travel ban, Aweys
now lives in Eritrea's capital, Asmara.
Locked with Ethiopia in a bitter border dispute, Eritrea backed
Somalia's Islamists on the principle that "my enemy's enemy is my
friend". President Isaias Afewerki's regime in Asmara is now harbouring
Aweys and other fugitives linked to terrorism.
While Eritrea does not yet appear on America's list of state sponsors of
terror, a Western diplomat in Addis Ababa said that day may not be "far
off".
Elsewhere, terrorist suspects who were scattered by the UIC's overthrow
may have found sanctuary and begun regrouping, possibly in remote areas
of Somalia, along the border with Ethiopia, and in neighbouring Kenya.
They could soon be in a position to plan and execute attacks.
"At this point, the balance of forces is not in their favour, but they
still try. They have never given up attempting," said the Ethiopian
minister. "They are coalescing in a way that enables them to attack."
There is another key danger, which Ethiopian officials are anxious to
play down.
When Ethiopia's army captured Mogadishu, heavy fighting forced tens of
thousands of people to flee their homes.
Ethiopian forces are still deployed in Mogadishu, where they are widely
hated as an occupying army. Islamist fighters are now waging a guerrilla
war against them.
The violent suppression of Mogadishu may create the conditions for
terrorism to thrive.
Critics predict that Ethiopia's operation will sow more hatred,
radicalise Somalis and open the way for an endless insurgency.
Tom Porteous, from Human Rights Watch, said that Ethiopia's army had
been guilty of "war crimes" in Somalia, adding: "I think that conduct
will have a radicalising effect and it will play into the hands of the
insurgents."
Despite its bid to portray the operation as part of the "war on
terrorism", Ethiopia's real motives are more complex. Somalia has a
longstanding claim to the Ogaden, a region of eastern Ethiopia populated
largely by Somalis.
The two countries even fought a war over this territory after Somalia
invaded in 1977.
By ousting the UIC from Mogadishu, Ethiopia removed a hostile regime
which was dedicated to capturing the Ogaden.
At heart, despite its status as a key US ally in the struggle against
terrorism, the overriding goal of Ethiopia's operation was securing its
eastern frontier against subversion.
Ethiopia must live with the constant danger posed by having a failed
state next door.
Yet the lesson from Afghanistan's chaos of the 1990s, which allowed
al-Qa'eda to plant itself in a safe haven, is that failed states not
only threaten their neighbours but also menace the world at large.