Geologist's prophecy: Holy Land overdue for a major earthquake*
TEL AVIV — Based on 400-year historical cycles a the pattern of recent
tremors, the Middle East should be expecting a major earthquake in the
near future, a geologist said.
A leading Israeli geologist has assessed that the Middle East,
particularly, the Levant, was ripe for a major earthquake. The geologist
based his forecast on seismological data as well as historical patterns.
"All of us in the region should be worried," Shmuel Marco, a geologist
at Tel Aviv University, said.
Seismologists have often warned of the prospect of a major earthquake in
the Middle East. The Levant has undergone a series of serious tremors on
the magnitude of five on the Richter Scale, but without causing
significant damage.
On Nov. 20, an earthquake measuring 5.1 on the Richter Scale shook
Israel and Jordan. The earthquake, whose epicenter was in the area of
the Dead Sea, did not cause major damage.
Marcos a member of Tel Aviv University's Department of Geophysics and
Planetary Sciences, has sought to predict the next major earthquake in
the Levant through historical examination. The geologist has examined
ancient records from the Vatican and other religious sources in his
research.
The major earthquakes in the Levant took place along the Jordan Valley.
Earthquakes were reported in 31 BCE, 363 CE, 749 CE and 1033 CE.
"So roughly, we are talking about an interval of every 400 years,"
Marcos said. "If we follow the patterns of nature, a major quake should
be expected any time because almost a whole millennium has passed since
the last strong earthquake of 1033."
Based on history, Marcos predicts a major earthquake that would affect
Israel, Jordan, Palestinian Authority and Syria. He said the sites
important to Christianity, Islam and Judaism could be particularly
vulnerable.
"I am looking for patterns and I can say that based on ancient records,
the pattern in Israel around the Dead Sea region is the most disturbing
to us," Marcos said. "When it strikes and it will this quake will affect
Amman, Jordan as well as Ramallah, Bethlehem, and Jerusalem. Earthquakes
don't care about religion or political boundaries."