The weather service has issued a flood watch through Wednesday night. The concern is both from rain/snow melt as well as potential ice jams.
Temperatures are expected to remain above freezing throughout the entire period. Rainfall of .5-1” is expected. The existing snow pack is saturated and will run off when it melts. In addition there is a wide variation in the condition of the Winooski, clear in parts and ice in parts, and everything else in between.
Area River Gauges:
Winooski near US2/US302 intersection
Winooski near Green Mountain Cemetery in Montpelier
http://newweb.erh.noaa.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=btv&gage=monv1&view=1,1,1,1,1,1
North Branch at Langdon Street in Montpelier
http://newweb.erh.noaa.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=btv&gage=lngv1&view=1,1,1,1,1,1
Dog River at Northfield Falls
Updates will be issued as needed.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD
WATCH
NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON
VT
425 AM
EDT TUE MAR 10 2009
..WARM MOIST STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING RISE TO AREA RIVERS
.RAINFALL COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT AND POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS
COULD CAUSE AREA RIVERS TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT. RAINFALL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BE HIGHEST IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF
VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK WITH UP TO 3
QUARTERS OF
AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WHILE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE LESS FURTHER NORTH...THERE IS GREAT
POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING...AS SEVERAL ICE JAMS FROM PREVIOUS
THAWS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE.
IN ADDITION...THE SNOW PACK AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IS LARGELY SATURATED FROM EARLIER RAIN AND THAW EVENTS
OVER THE PAST WEEK...FURTHER AIDING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL.
NORTHERN
ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN
ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN
ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN
FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-
CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN
ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-
WINDSOR-EASTERN
FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
EASTERN
RUTLAND-
INCLUDING
THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...
STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...
LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...
GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...
ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST.
JOHNSBURY...
MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...
RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE
RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...
KILLINGTON
425 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2009
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS
ISSUED A
* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT...
INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...EASTERN
CLINTON...EASTERN ESSEX...NORTHERN FRANKLIN...NORTHERN
ST.
LAWRENCE...SOUTHEASTERN ST.
LAWRENCE...SOUTHERN FRANKLIN...
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE...WESTERN CLINTON AND WESTERN
ESSEX.
IN VERMONT...CALEDONIA...EASTERN
ADDISON...EASTERN
CHITTENDEN...EASTERN FRANKLIN...EASTERN
RUTLAND...ESSEX...
GRAND ISLE...LAMOILLE...ORANGE...ORLEANS...WASHINGTON...
WESTERN ADDISON...WESTERN CHITTENDEN...WESTERN FRANKLIN...
WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
* RAIN FALL FROM AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IN ADDITION TO SNOW
MELT AND POTENTIAL ICE JAMS COULD CAUSE AREA RIVERS TO RISE
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
* ICE JAMS CAN OCCUR SUDDENLY AND ARE HIGHLY UNSTABLE. WATER CAN
BACKUP QUICKLY BEHIND AN ICE JAM AND FLOOD AN AREA IN A MATTER
OF MINUTES. IN ADDITION...IF AN ICE JAM BREAKS A SUDDEN RELEASE
OF WATER CAN FLOOD AREAS DOWNSTREAM.
A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.