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Distribution grids may be a barrier to residential electrification
In a future with clean electricity and full electrification of buildings and private vehicles, the United States would emit about half the greenhouse gas pollution that it does today. However, buildings and vehicles would also use much more electricity, especially in the coldest weather. Here, we show that reinforcing distribution grids to accommodate these new peaks in electricity demand could cost Americans $2,800–$6,400 per household. We also show that “smart electrification”–accompanying electrification with measures that mitigate electricity demand peaks, such as reducing thermal demand, improving equipment efficiencies, and coordinating device operation–could reduce grid reinforcement costs by over two-thirds. We believe that achieving an affordable, all-electric future will require cooperation between engineers to develop enabling technologies, social scientists to guide technology development toward people’s wants and needs, and policymakers to pass laws or incentives that shape technology adoption.
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Kevin J. Kircher
Purdue University
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What are the main challenges that fully electrifying homes and vehicles would pose to the existing power distribution grid?
People are the heart of the energy system. Understanding everyday people’s interactions with the energy system is critical if we want to be able to successfully transition to a more sustainable, climate-friendly system. Traditionally, researchers and engineers were focused heavily on the more technical aspects of the energy transition—data coupling, energy transmission infrastructure, storage technologies. But work like ours helps ensure we have a better understanding of the energy system as this complex interaction between people, policy, and technology. Without people, there’s no one to supply energy to, there’s no changing zoning policies in rural communities to allow for windmills, there’s no constituents to support politicians who push for climate-friendly projects or policies. We can’t successfully transition the energy system to be more sustainable if we don’t account for the preferences, desires, and actions of the people who live in that system.Installing electric vehicle chargers, heat pumps, or other large loads can increase power flows through electricity distribution infrastructure, such as power lines and transformers, and risk overheating or other damage. To operate safely, distribution infrastructure must be sized to accommodate peak power flows. Rapid load growth from electrification could therefore require replacing many power lines and transformers with higher-capacity versions. Reinforcing the distribution grid with larger equipment can be expensive and slow. For example, transformer prices are increasing much faster than inflation, and some utilities report multiple-year delays in obtaining transformers.
Your study mentions that power grid reinforcement to support residential electrification could cost $2,800–$6,400 per household. Can you explain what grid reinforcement involves and why it is so costly?
By grid reinforcement, we mean installing new electricity distribution hardware—such as power lines, transformers, capacitors, or switchgear—to accommodate growth in peak electricity demand. Grid reinforcement requires heavy equipment, skilled technicians, financing, and regulatory approval. Based on related work and our own modeling, we estimate that distribution grid reinforcement to accommodate one watt of growth in peak electricity demand typically costs between $0.60 and $1.30. Our modeling suggests that peak electricity demand from the United States residential sector could rise by 600 billion watts in an all-electric future. Reinforcing distribution grids to accommodate that growth in peak demand would cost hundreds of billions of dollars. Utilities would pass those costs, as well as the associated financing costs and shareholder profits, through to ratepayers in the form of higher electricity bills.
Which strategies are likely to have the biggest impact in reducing the need for expensive grid reinforcements?
Replacing power lines, transformers, and other distribution infrastructure is not the only way to accommodate home and vehicle electrification. We also investigated so-called "non-wires alternatives," such as reducing demand for space heating and cooling (the main drivers of demand peaks in electrified housing), installing more efficient heating and cooling equipment, and using software to coordinate smart thermostat operation alongside smart electric vehicle charging. Our modeling suggests that those three strategies combined could eliminate more than two-thirds of distribution grid reinforcement needs in an all-electric future. In future work, we plan to evaluate other non-wires alternatives, such as solar panels, home batteries, heat storage, and powering housing with electric vehicle batteries when the grid is strained.
Who should be responsible for addressing the challenges of grid reinforcement and ensuring a smooth transition to residential electrification?
Three-quarters of Americans buy electricity from investor-owned, regulated monopoly utilities. These utilities profit primarily from capital spending on new infrastructure, so their default approach to accommodating home and vehicle electrification will likely be to install new power lines, transformers, and other costly equipment. Widespread deployment of less costly alternatives would require intervention by policymakers. This intervention could take various forms: updating building codes to require better insulation, air sealing, and windows; updating appliance standards to require higher efficiencies, as well as the communication and control capabilities needed to make their electricity demand flexible; offering tax breaks or point-of-sale rebates for efficient, flexible equipment; updating the utility regulatory model to better align utility incentives with socially beneficial outcomes; or shifting utility structures from for-profit monopolies to municipal or cooperative ownership. Ultimately, responsibility for enacting policy interventions lies with politicians, regulators, voters, lobbyists, and advocacy groups.
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Global challenges, equitable solutions
Cell Reports Sustainability is a multidisciplinary, gold open access journal that publishes cutting-edge research across natural, applied, and social sciences that seeks to address the world’s grand challenges.
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