Pro Tour Financial Fallout, Chas Andres

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Oct 20, 2015, 6:59:51 PM10/20/15
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Pro Tour Financial Fallout

CHAS ANDRES 
10/19/15


Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar is behind us, and we've finally got a good sense of the new Standard metagame. In previous years, the first Standard Pro Tour of the fall has often set the metagame for the next few months, leading to sustained price spikes from PT-winning cards and massive value plummets for everything else. While that is the most likely case this time around, it isn't necessarily going to happen. Last year, remember, several new decks showed up on the Open Series just one week after the PT. As always, it's important to stay on your toes and not take anything for granted.
Which cards that did well over the weekend should you keep? Which should you sell? Well, it depends on how much Standard you play. Obviously you shouldn't sell key cards you need for your own deck, but everything else should be traded or sold into the spike. The fall Pro Tour weekend is the high water mark for Standard demand all year-key cards from the PT will spike over the next week and then start to fall as we head toward the winter doldrums.

Battle for Zendikar - The Big Picture

The graphics on the Twitch stream reminded me that I was watching Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar every few seconds over the weekend, but I can't imagine Wizards of the Coast was happy with how the event highlighted their new set. Gideon, Ally of Zendikar and the Battle lands were everywhere, but almost all the other key cards at the Pro Tour were from Magic Origins or Khans of Tarkir block. Battle for Zendikarmight eventually have a time to shine, but right now it looks like one of the least impactful fall sets in the history of the game.
The major reason for this? Allowing the Battle lands to be fetched by the Khans of Tarkir fetchlands has given us a Standard format with the best manabases since the days of the five-color Cryptic Commanddecks during Lorwyn/Shadowmoor block. Instead of giving us a ramp format where Eldrazis rule the roost, Battle for Zendikar's new lands unlocked the splashy, three-color cards from Tarkir block. Instead of watching Ulamog stomp around, we ended up with a world where Mantis Rider and Crackling Doomboth got invitations to the party…in the same deck.
It's unclear where this is all leading, but my guess is that Battle for Zendikar is going to be a really, really cheap set in a few months. Which non-Gideon card in Battle for Zendikar is going to be more than $10 by mid-November? More than $7? I can't think of a single one.
This should keep Gideon expensive much longer than he would be otherwise. Normally, it's difficult for a fall set mythic to stay above $25 or $30 for long. Gideon really does stand alone in Battle for Zendikar, though, and I could see him sticking between $30 and $50 for quite a while. The Battle lands (and Shambling Vent, to a lesser extent) shouldn't drop much below $5, either.
The lack of value in Battle for Zendikar might also stop the expeditions from dropping much further. If they have less value to offset in the rare and mythic rare slots, they can stabilize and begin to rise. If you want to try and get a set of these, start paying attention to their prices and buy in when they start to bottom out. It might happen as soon as this week.
This whole thing is kind of a bummer, honestly. I was hoping that the expeditions would make Standard cheaper by reducing the prices of good, playable cards in Battle for Zendikar. There aren't many good, playable cards in Battle for Zendikar, though, and Standard is just as expensive as ever.

The Top 8

I'm writing this during the first match of the quarterfinals, so it isn't clear yet which deck will prevail. That doesn't really matter, though. Most Standard players will look at the top 8 as a whole and pick the deck that they like best to emulate and build.

Atarka Red had a pretty good weekend, and we almost had two or three copies in the top 8. There doesn't seem to be a consensus on how big or small this deck should go, (some copies were more burn-heavy, others went big with cards like Hooting Mandrills), but I'd bet that PV's list will be the baseline going forward.
None of these cards show up in any other tier one Standard decks, but Abbot of Keral Keep and Atarka's Command are both Modern playable. Atarka Red is a cheap deck other than these three cards and the manabase, so I foresee a pretty quick and furious spike for people who want to play Standard but don't want to buy Jaces and Gideons. Atarka's Command can't go too much higher, but a few days at $20 wouldn't shock me. Abbot of Keral Keep could tick up to $10-$12. Zurgo could hit $6-$7.
Key Uncommons: 4 Monastery Swiftspear, 3 Wild Slash, 3 Become Immense.
All of these cards are over $1 retail now, so there's not much action you can take. Make sure you pull them out of your bulk.

G/W Megamorph didn't perform as well at the PT as it did on the Open Series, but it's clearly going to be a pillar of the format going forward.
This is not a cheap deck. Gideon, Ally of Zendikar has been at least $35-$40 since Battle for Zendikar was released, and I wouldn't be shocked if he's re-stocked at $50 this week. Deathmist Raptor is $25, and it hasn't really been below $20 since April. Den Protector recently spiked back to $15 again. Dromoka's Command is back up to $10, and I could see it hit $15 in the short term.
The other rares are a little more interesting. Hangarback Walker dropped down to about $15 thanks to an increase of Silkwrap in the format as well as the event deck reprint. It showed up a lot this weekend, though, so I could see it creeping back toward $20 again. Warden of the First Tree would have been a major spec target of mine…but it's in the BFZ event deck too, which limits its upside considerably. That's why it's still stuck at $5-$6 retail. Nissa, Vastwood Seer has been stuck between $20 and $25 for a while, but it could see some movement as well. Wingmate Roc is currently sold out at $7, but it had a very good weekend. I'd be shocked if it's under $10 this time next week.
Key Uncommons: 2 Silkwrap.
Silkwrap is still just $0.99 on StarCityGames, but it might just be the most important removal spell in the format right now. I like this as a mid-term buy-Hangarback Walker isn't going anywhere soon, after all, and Silkwrap is the best answer in Standard.

There were two Abzan decks in the Top 8 - one belonging to Takimura, and the other being piloted by Paul Dean. They aren't exactly the same, but they're close enough that I'm going to combine them in this report. A lot of players have been playing Abzan variants for months now, and I'd imagine that most of them will move toward one of these two builds. Abzan didn't do well in the Pro Tour overall, but the decks that made it to day two did quite well. This deck isn't going anywhere.
There's a lot of overlap here with the G/W Megamorph deck. Abzan also runs Gideon, Den Protector, Warden of the First Tree, Dromoka's Command, Hangarback Walker, and Wingmate Roc. Again, the fact that the BFZ event deck comes with two of these cards looms pretty large.
Anafenza, the Foremost has been surging upward since midsummer, and it's finally up over $10. As a mythic rare, I could see her spiking a little further. It might also take a bit longer before it drops off again. Siege Rhino has actually been dropping for weeks-an appearance in the Magic Origins Clash Pack will do that-but I'd bet the tide stems here. Siege Rhino might not have dominated this Pro Tour, but I'd be shocked if it stays below $5.
Key Uncommons: 3 Abzan Charm, 3 Murderous Cut.
Not much action to take here. Abzan Charm is a buck, which is about right. Murderous Cut is also in the BFZ event deck, so there's no upside there.

The other four decks in the top 8 are Jeskai variants. I want to start with Tamada's build, because it's by far the most straightforward. I'd imagine most deckbuilders will gravitate toward one of the other two decks, though.
You'll see a pattern start to emerge here. All four Jeskai decks run four copies each of Jace and two of them run four copies of Gideon, which are probably the two most important non-land cards in Standard right now. The fact that Gideon is a four-of in Abzan, G/W Megamporph, and Jeskai means that demand for that card is going to be nuts going forward. Jace will still maintain a higher price tag, though, because there isn't any more Magic Origins being opened.
If Jace had showed up in a greater portion of the top 8-say, if two Esper Control decks made it instead of the two Abzan lists-we might have seen the card spike above $100. As is, I expect the planeswalker to stay between $70-$80 for the next week or two before starting to fall off as overall Standard demand begins to drop.
Mantis Rider has started to creep up a bit, but it's still under $3. It might creep up toward $4 or $5, but I doubt it has too much upside. Anyone building this deck needs four copies of both Jace and Gideon, remember, so demand for Mantis Riders should remain modest.
Key Uncommons: 4 Seeker of the Way, 4 Jeskai Charm, 4 Valorous Stance.
The first two cards on this list are still under $0.50, so we might see a little bit of movement here. Jeskai Charm should probably be more than $0.29 right now. Valorous Stance is already almost $2, so that ship has sailed.

This deck had a really good tournament, and the fact that it's got a bit of a combo side to it makes it intriguing. I'd expect to see a lot more of Jeskai Tokens going forward.
Again, you need four copies each of Jace and Gideon to play this deck. Yuck. Jeskai Ascendancy is under a dollar, though, and I love it as a long-term buy. It's got an outside shot at Modern playability, and it's a casual favorite, too. Grab foils at $3-there's basically no downside.
Key Uncommons: 4 Hordeling Outburst, 4 Silkwrap, 3 Wild Slash.
Hordeling Outburst is a buck fifty and has been a tournament staple for a while now. We've talked about the other two cards already.

Let's finish with the Pro Tour's biggest breakout deck. Jon Finkel and Owen Turtenwald are both playing the same list, so we can kill two Dragons with one stone here.
Crackling Doom was a $1 rare at the beginning of September, but it's sold out at $4 now. Much like Mantis Rider, this card could hang around in the $3-$5 range for a while, but its upside is seriously limited by the fact that this deck requires the four copies of Jace.
Tasigur is down under $5, its value hurt by the BFZ event deck that contains so many of Standard's best cards right now. Much like Warden of the First Tree, I doubt this card will see much of a spike from the Pro Tour. If you want a copy, go buy the deck.
Both of the Commands are more interesting. Kolaghan's Command is sold out at $12 and sees a bit of Modern play, which has kept the price high for a while now. I wouldn't be surprised to see that card hit $15. Ojutai's Command has been rising in price since mid-July, and it's now sold out at $6. If the Esper Control deck that didn't make Top 8 continues to see play, this price is sustainable. If not, we might see it drop back toward $3-$4.
Dig Through Time is probably stable at $6-$7. It's basically locked out of the Eternal formats, and it doesn't see much play outside of this and the other Standard control decks. It's important to those builds, but it's rarely a four-of. Soulfire Grand Master sees a little bit of Eternal play, so it's got a little bit more upside at $10.
Key Uncommons: 2 Wild Slash.
This deck is mostly rares with a couple of commons. No action to take here.

Rare Land Watch

Here's the top 8 count for the major non-basic lands in the format:
Khans of Tarkir Fetchlands: 
Battle for Zendikar Battle Lands:
Origins Painlands:
Battle for Zendikar Creature Lands:
I'm bringing this up because I want to stress the importance of the Khans of Tarkir fetchlands. The Battle lands are absolutely crucial to the format, but each deck only needs one or two of each because they're easily fetchable with the fetchlands, and you don't want to flood out with too many of these. Over the next few months, I doubt the fetchlands will drop (they're so good in Eternal and casual formats), but the Battle lands should start to drop off quite a bit as more packs are opened. If every deckbuilder only needs 1-3 copies of these versus playsets of the fetchlands, they'll struggle to command price tags above $3-$4.

Beyond the Top 8

While many casual FNM brewers won't look beyond the top tier of the format, there are several other decks worth thinking about as we look at Standard going forward.
Two Aristocrats decks were running around the Pro Tour, a B/G variant that was highlighted on day one and a (better) U/B variant deck we saw toward the end of day two. The B/G deck runs Smothering Abomination, which saw an uptick from bulk to about $2. That new price tag might stick around for a bit because the card has casual demand, but I can't imagine too many people actually build the Standard deck.
The U/B version is a little more exciting. In addition to four copies of Hangarback Walker, it runs four copies of Liliana, Heretical Healer. That card saw a spike from about $15 to about $30 over the weekend, but I doubt it keeps going as the deck failed to Top 8. It might not drop back to $15, though-it's a very popular casual card.
Another deck worth taking a look at is Sam Black's Bant Tokens deck. It went 8-2 in Standard, but Sam was kept out of the top 8 due to his Draft record. This deck runs four copies each of Gideon, Ally of Zendikar and Retreat to Emeria alongside playsets of Hangarback Walker and Nissa, Vastwood Seer. It also runs three copies each of Wingmate Roc and Secure the Wastes.
I still like Nissa as a future breakout card if this list becomes a tournament mainstay, and Secure the Wastes has some upside too. It's a $4 card currently, so there's not much room to grow, but it could be $5-$7 if this deck becomes a bigger part of the metagame.
Lastly, there were several variants of Esper Control and Esper Dragons hanging out near the top tables. I don't have a great list at the moment, but most of them contained Jace, Languish, Ojutai's Command, and Dragonlord Ojutai alongside a bunch of countermagic. Dragonlord Ojutai was a big seller on-site before the tournament began, but the lack of copies inside the Top 8 means that its price should start to drop quickly. Brewers will likely keep trying to make an Esper-colored control deck work, but it isn't tier one yet.

The Biggest Losers

I tried to be as comprehensive as possible here, but there were still some very good cards I haven't had a chance to discuss yet. Radiant Flames and Exert Influence both showed up out of sideboards all weekend, for example, as did Dragonmaster Outcast. These cards probably won't spike, but they shouldn't drop, either. Thunderbreak Regent also seemed to be everywhere during the first few days of the event-it just didn't happen to make Top 8.
Here are the most expensive Standard cards that didn't do much, if anything, all weekend:

Commander 2015 Spoilers So Far

A few foreign copies of Eternal Witness bearing the Commander 2015 expansion symbol showed up in a Battle for Zendikar pack last weekend. It's not clear if this was an accident or (more likely) a deliberate plant, but it doesn't seem like the pictures were faked. Eternal Witness has been reprinted in Commander decks twice before-in 2011 and 2013-so an every-other-year pattern does make sense.
The card currently sells for about $7, but it'll probably drop to $3-$5 once the Commander decks reach saturation. You're probably not going to run out and sell the three copies you have socked away in your deckbuilding binder, but it's your last chance to get out at current retail if you've got a stack of 'em stashed somewhere.
Another potential spoiler: Kalemne, Disciple of Iroas, a 3/3 Giant Soldier for 2RW with double strike and vigilance. Kalemne also gets +1/+1 for each experience counter you have, and he gives you an experience counter every time you cast a creature spell with converted mana cost five or greater.
Kalemne isn't good enough to see competitive play, but a few people have started speculation on proliferate cards due to their interaction with experience counters. This is reasonable in theory, but I wouldn't be surprised if WotC designers thought the same thing when they built the deck in the first place. Assuming Kalemne isn't the only card in the deck with experience counters, why not include Contagion Clasp and Contagion Engine as well? The upside is so low compared to the downside of buying a $3 rare that will plummet to bulk if it's reprinted. If you must invest in experience counter enablers, grab foils.

Eternal Format Watch

In Modern, Glimmervoid, Ensnaring Bridge, Gaddock Teeg, Knight of the Reliquary, Kor Spiritdancer, and Night of Souls' Betrayal have all been steady climbers for the past week or so.
Ensnaring Bridge is up thanks to Lantern Control's continued success, and Glimmervoid is getting more expensive because Affinity shows no signs of slipping out of relevance. Kor Spiritdancer and Gaddock Teeg have been rising ever since the World Championships back in late August, and they've started to show up on my radar more as supply continues to dwindle. Night of Souls' Betrayal is a mainstay in Jund these days, so that one's no surprise, either. Knight of the Reliquary is still a speculative purchase as the brewers try to make KnightFall work, but the fact that it shows up in Naya Company lists gives it a very high floor as well. I doubt we'll see it drop below $15 until it is reprinted again.
In other Modern news, have you seen this Restore Balance deck yet? I haven't heard much about it, but Nihilith, Greater Gargadon, and Restore Balance are all sold out on StarCityGames because of it. I would have advocated going in on these cards at bulk rates, but that ship has sailed. At this point, let's just keep tabs on the deck and see if it is more than a one hit wonder.

Other News

Spawnsire of Ulamog seems to be pretty stable at $7. As I said last week, that's pretty close to the new price floor. Feel free to sell if you bought some copies on spec, but I doubt there's a huge need to rush. Casual players love cards like this.
Mark Rosewater confirmed that Oath of the Gatewatch fat packs will contain full art basic lands. I've still got a couple of Battle for Zendikar fat packs stashed, but between the number of BFZ packs being opened and the fact that we get a second run of (perhaps more widely distributed) fat packs with full art lands, I don't see the BFZ fat packs maintaining a $70 price tag for much longer.
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