Last week, Kazuyuki Takimura won Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar with an Abzan deck, helping give the impression that Abzan is the deck to beat despite the archetype performing below 50% on day 2s every single week since Battle for Zendikar became legal.
Predictably, Abzan was the most played deck this weekend; and predictably, it fell off the deeper into day 2 we got. The problem? It loses to the second and third most played decks! We're not talking blowouts or anything, but being less than 50% against Jeskai and Red Aggro adds up over time since they make up nearly 40% of the field.
Here's a breakdown of the day 2 metagame of Grand Prix Quebec City:
The field being a quarter Abzan and a quarter Jeskai variants (usually Jeskai Black) is pretty wild! What's particularly interesting is that this looks a lot like week one of the format, except this time Red Aggro couldn't sneak past the Jeskai decks to get to the top 8. Additionally, some of the decks have improved a great deal from being properly tuned (Abzan, Jeskai, and Esper), whereas some have barely changed at all (Atarka Red and G/W Megamorph).
Let's start with the so-called deck to beat:
Creatures (21)
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (26)
There isn't enough variation among Abzan decks to differentiate between Aggro and Control, anymore. Basically everyone builds around Warden of the First Tree and
Anafenza, the Foremost. As always, it's basically just a bunch of really high quality cards shuffled together.
Siege Rhino and
Abzan Charm are really strong cards, and getting to play them is a big payoff.
The biggest weakness of Abzan is the lack of a good two-drop. It's not that
Hangarback Walker isn't a good card, it's just that the format has gotten hostile for the card, and it's not as natural a fit into Abzan's strategy as it used to be. It is nice, though, that Beland's heavy use of Gideon, Ally of Zendikar and
Sorin, Solemn Visitor give us extra value from the tokens. The Wingmate Rocs also benefit from the incidental 1/1 flier increasing the chances we'll be able to get the raid trigger.
Dromoka's Command and
Murderous Cut are great cards, but neither they, nor
Abzan Charm is particularly good at killing
Zurgo Bellstriker. That said, not everyone plays Atarka Red anymore. The move towards the slightly slower creature-suite in R/G Landfall is a little less bad for Abzan, though still not a good matchup for them.
How strange that
Sandsteppe Citadel isn't even playable anymore. The desire to untap our Battle lands is great, and
Shambling Vent is just a much more powerful Magic card. That said, Beland does make a minor concession with the use of two
Llanowar Wastes.
Transgress the Mind fell out of favor early on, but is the discard spell of choice for fighting Abzan mirrors. It's also the perfect discard spell for combating Eldrazi ramp decks, should anyone find a way to make one work…
Creatures (13)
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (25)
Jake Mondello is living the Ulamog dream, thanks to a couple of key innovations.
Jaddi Offshoot is particularly great at blocking
Soulfire Grand Master and Zurgo, but its ability to gain 1-3 life a turn can go a long way towards helping buy us enough time to survive a
Mantis Rider. It's not a long-term plan, of course, but if we can live long enough to start dropping Atarkas or Ugins, they can usually take it from there.
Notice the complete lack of
Rattleclaw Mystics or any other mana creatures. Instead, Mondello relies nearly entirely on lands for mana, maximizing the power of
Shrine of the Forsaken Gods. The only non-land mana source is
Hedron Archive, partially because its power level is just so high and partially because it can be cashed in for two more cards, which typically finds the land you need if you are trying to get some Shrines active.
Once you start dropping big threats, you'll usually be able to play one a turn for enough turns in a row to grind through most opponents, regardless of removal. There are nine big threats, but there are also nine Sanctums/Scryings/Havens to find more, plus the
Hedron Archives. This list even has a fourth Ulamog in the sideboard for control matchups that might go long, not to mention Nissa, Vastood Seer for any grindy matchups.
Of course, even with
Rending Volley, the Jeskai matchup is the single-biggest roadblock to a full-on Eldrazi invasion. Fittingly, Mondello was eliminated in the top 4 by Jeskai, with its fast, flying aggression, "must-kill" creatures like Jace, and a variety of annoying interaction, like
Kolaghan's Command on
Hedron Archive.
Here's the list that knocked him out, piloted by Omar Beldon on his way to a runner up finish:
Beldon's list is very close to The Pantheon formula Jon Finkel and Owen Turtenwald top 8ed with. This deck is, without question, the deck to beat. Week one, it was Atarka Red and Jeskai Black. Week two, G/W Megamorph and Jeskai Black. Week three, Abzan and Jeskai Black.
Seriously, the deck to beat is Jeskai Black.
Beldon has added a maindeck
Duress, as well as replacing one of the
Dispels with a
Negate. Generally, decks like this lose some percentage when people know everything they need to play around, so it's a good idea to mix it up, if only to disrupt people planning their plays against you.
Beldon trimmed a
Wild Slash and a Tasigur to make room for that
Duress and a second
Utter End, suggesting Beldon expected a decrease in red decks at the top tables.
Olivier Polak-Rottmann and Dan Lanthier, the eventual champion, also top 8'ed with Pantheon-style Jeskai Black decks:
Olivier's only maindeck variation was a
Dragonlord Silumgar, which I love. Stealing Gideon is just so awesome, and your Tasigurs and
Mantis Riders draw out removal quite well. I guess he also used a
Negate over a
Dispel, but that isn't too radical.
Lanthier, on the other hand, played a literal carbon copy, not changing a thing:
Creatures (14)
Planeswalkers (1)
Lands (26)
The final remaining Jeskai Black deck in the top 8 is definitely the most "different" of the bunch.
Creatures (16)
Planeswalkers (1)
Lands (25)
This list features a number of alternative threats and forms of interaction. The loudest of these is definitely
Pia and Kiran Nalaar.
Draconic Roar without Dragons may look funny, but Edgar apparently is willing to pay the extra mana for the extra reliability in dealing three compared to
Fiery Impulse. Besides,
Dragonmaster Outcast means we don't exactly have
zero Dragons.
Treasure Cruise over
Dig Through Time is not my style, unless we are short on blue mana (which Jeskai Black never is) or we specifically want quantity for some reason (such as
Jeskai Ascendancy). Extra cards to loot away with Jace is something, but everybody has that. It is nice to have added resiliency to
Dispel, though, since everyone is copying The Pantheon list that featured two.
Next, we come to my favorite of the top 8 decks, Reid Duke's Esper Control.
Creatures (5)
Planeswalkers (2)
Lands (27)
Reid's build is very similar to the list he used to great effect last week at Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar. He's pretty far on the "pure control" spectrum, relying on
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon to close things out after getting enough card advantage from Jace and
Dig Through Time. Compared to last week, Reid has made a number of minor but noteworthy tweaks.
Reid replaced one of the two Scatters he used last week with a
Negate, since most of the time he was using Scatter to counter non-creature spells anyway. The mana efficiency is particularly important when fighting counter-wars or when trying to resolve a
Dig Through Time. Besides, it's nice to not have to always find double blue by turn 3.
The biggest change between Reid's list from last week and this one was replacing his second maindeck
Arashin Cleric with a
Silumgar's Command. Silumgar's Command is excellent right now, often killing a Mantris Rider
and a Jace, or a
Den Protector and a Gideon. Removing a "fast" card (like
Arashin Cleric) for a "powerful" card (like
Silumgar's Command) is the type of move that makes you just a little bit better in the mirror, or against similar speed decks.
Reid played just a single copy of
Shambling Vent last week, favoring three
Mage-Ring Networks. However, the card is just too good to deny, and picking up a second copy reduces some of the need for as many fetchlands as Reid played. This path also increases the total black mana in the deck, helping ensure
Ultimate Price can be played in a timely fashion.
After the PT last week, Reid and I compared notes on our experiences with Esper. He liked the maindeck
Negate action Paul Rietzl, Matt Sperling, and myself played, but he also liked the
Dragonlord Ojutaisideboard alongside the primary backup victory condition of choice,
Dragonlord Silumgar.
If you are trying to sideboard in a creature to take over the game,
Dragonlord Ojutai is a better plan than trying to draw extra cards with
Fathom Feeder. A lot of
Fathom Feeder's strength is in its ability to trade with a ground creature, but that's not really what the format is about at the moment. Besides, people tend to keep their small removal in anyway, due to the threat of
Jace, Vryn's Prodigy.
Moving the second
Murderous Cut to the maindeck, Reid had room for a
Foul-Tongue Invocation, giving him a little extra lifegain as well as removal. While he does tend to sideboard in the Dragons most of the time, it doesn't mean he is supposed to have them maindeck. Remember, game 1, people are going to have a lot more creature removal, like
Murderous Cut or
Stasis Snare.
Finally, last but not least, we have Pascal Maynard and his four-color
Rally deck:
Catacomb Sifter is an underrated token maker that has been showing up more and more. There's always a lot of competition at the three-spot, but the card always seems to overperform. All the scrying really adds up in a deck with exploit and
Nantuko Husks.
The biggest thing I like about this build is the moving away from a reliance on
Fleshbag Marauders. Instead of trying to use
Collected Company and
Rally the Ancestors to kill our opponent's board, we are just trying to draw as many cards as possible, eventually setting up a
Zulaport Cutthroat kill (if not a
Nantuko Husk attacking for the lethal).
Even though this deck doesn't have as many flashback targets as a lot of Jace decks, particularly since
Rally the Ancestors exiles, the card is extremely good here. Every creature you put in your graveyard makes your
Rally stronger, and if you ever flashback a
Collected Company, it's a big deal. Additionally, cards like
Duress and
Dispel mean
Rally the Ancestors is not automatically going to resolve, so Jace can give us another chance at it.
Well, Grand Prix Indianapolis and #SCGDFW are just days away, and the format continues to evolve. Eldrazi are finally starting to break through, Abzan is a real thing but not dominant, and there are quite a variety of exotic four and five-color decks getting played.
What am I planning on playing in Indy this weekend?
My current plan is to play Esper, though I am going to have to do some pretty serious tuning against Abzan. I'd love to play Abzan, but I can't help but feel like the format is too hostile unless we can find some new twist, such as splashing blue. It's hard to get into red aggro as long as Jeskai is so popular, and I don't expect it to die out anytime soon. The deck is just too resilient to be "hated out."
I could imagine G/W/X tokens continuing to be a fine choice, but the format is much more aware of it now, so I think you aren't getting a big edge unless you find some new way to surprise people with it.
Eldrazi? That's the big wild card. I could imagine Eldrazi actually picking up some steam now that people have an approach that is halfway reasonable against fast decks while being capable of just obliterating some slower decks…