聯合報/ 廖達琪
2025-02-19 01:00 https://udn.com/news/story/7340/8556894
用這四原則審視台灣,符合哪一項呢?聰明的讀者請自行玩味,台灣可不可能成為美國的一州?即便川普的擴張企圖,令人想像。(作者為中山大學政治研究所榮譽教授)
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By John Pomfret
Washington Post
August 1, 1999
A few days ago, while an American envoy was here in Taipei pressuring Taiwanese officials to bend to Communist Chinese demands, a small demonstration erupted outside the U.S. Mission.
"We want to be the 51st state!" chanted the band of protesters, called the 51st Club.
Meanwhile, among the vodka-and-tonic set hobnobbing at Taipei's hip saloons and coffee bars, a popular joke goes as follows: Cuba loves China and Taiwan loves America. So why don't we switch islands?
While no one takes the 51st Club or the joke seriously, they illustrate a key problem facing Taiwan as it attempts to negotiate its future with mainland China. One-hundred miles off the coast of Fujian province, and five minutes away for a missile, Taiwan is damned by its geography to deal gingerly with the People's Republic of China.
Things that would make sense anywhere else in the world--such as Taiwan's recent announcement that it was, after all, a separate state from China--don't make sense here because of China's size, unpredictability and military heft. Things that wouldn't make sense anywhere else in the world--such as China's stated policy that Taiwan's national government does not exist--make sense here, for those same reasons.
On July 8, President Lee Teng-hui announced that Taiwan wanted "special state-to-state" relations with China. Since then, tensions have skyrocketed along the Taiwan Strait. China revealed that it had neutron bomb technology and publicized a few minor military exercises--and Taiwan's stock market plummeted 14 percent. An island-wide blackout in Taiwan on Friday sparked fears of a Chinese invasion. On Saturday, the Chinese coast guard seized a Taiwanese freighter carrying supplies to front-line Taiwanese troops on the heavily fortified Taiwan-held island of Matsu, close to the Chinese coast, causing some to think that China was preparing an economic blockade.
"Really, we're at their mercy," said a senior Taiwanese official. "Their psychological warfare is first rate."
Because of China's success at scaring Taiwan and the United States, Lee's advisers spent three weeks fumbling with an explanation of the president's "special state-to-state" relations concept--even though a small group of senior advisers had spent a year formulating the change. When Taiwan's top envoy to China, Koo Chen-fu, attempted to clarify Lee's statement on Friday, it was rejected by Beijing, throwing planned October talks with China's top Taiwan envoy, Wang Daohan, into doubt.
But why shouldn't China establish "special state-to-state" ties with Taiwan, Taiwanese officials ask. After all, Taiwan has a democratically elected president, one of the freest presses in Asia, a bustling economy and a truly civil society.
The answer is: Because China says so. And increasingly in Asia, what China wants, it gets. American diplomats jumped into the fray soon after Lee made his announcement and attempted to force Taiwan to retract the statement. "Risky, adventurous and unnecessary" was how one senior American envoy described the move.
"What China has been able to create is a situation in which everyone is scared," said another Western envoy. "If you 'dis' China, your company or your country stands to lose business or cooperation. So everyone toes the line."
China's position is that Taiwan's national government doesn't exist. When Taiwan refers to Lee, it puts the word president in quotation marks. Beijing's "one China" policy is this: Beijing is the capital of all of China. Taiwan is a province of China. So if China negotiates future reunification, Taiwan will be a local government and China will be the central government.
China has threatened to invade Taiwan if it declares independence. Beijing said it viewed Lee's announcement as a major step toward such a declaration.
China also has squeezed Taiwan diplomatically. Only 28 countries recognize Taiwan, the most prominent being Honduras. Taiwan is a member of only 16 international organizations, including three devoted to saving various types of tuna.
Lee's motivations for the "special state-to-state" announcement are complex. For one, it is increasingly clear that the president has no interest in uniting with China--even in the distant future.
"Lee wants to create an independent Taiwan, that's totally clear," said Chang Ling-chen, a professor of political science at National Taiwan University. "He can package it nicely, but that's what he wants."
Born in Taiwan during Japanese rule, Lee, 76, essentially was brought up as Japanese and is known to have little affinity for Chinese culture. C. V. Chen, who worked closely with Lee managing relations with China from 1990 to '92, said his former boss dreams of an independent Taiwan.
But in an interview at his law office, Chen noted that Beijing, by its diplomatic pressure, gave Lee the excuse he needed to sell the "special state-to-state" concept to Taiwan's people.
"China should have been more generous," said Chen, who quit the Taiwanese government in 1992 over disagreements with Lee over China policy. "They could have offered us a lot more diplomatic space without jeopardizing their position, but they didn't."
The United States has also played a role in pushing Lee to roil the waters in the Taiwan Strait. Since March, U.S. officials have pressured Taiwan to start concluding "interim agreements" with China on issues leading toward reunification.
"Lee was tired of American pressure," a senior Taiwanese official said.
Taiwan's reaction to Lee's move has been mixed, an illustration of the open nature of society here. Many people on this island seem united in the belief that Lee spoke the truth. But the question is whether he should have said it and risk riling Beijing.
"Taiwan should be free and independent, but we have crazy people living next door," said Isabel Chang, a systems analyst. "I'd rather my government was vague than at war."
Another factor for Lee is the upcoming elections. Next March, Taiwan will directly elect its president for only the second time. So far, the campaign has been going badly for Lee's man, Vice President Lien Chan, who formally announced his candidacy Saturday. Lien is widely considered stiff and lacking a common touch.
Lian's challengers are James Soong, a mainland-born former powerhouse in the ruling Nationalist Party who is running as an independent, and Chen Shui-bian, a scrappy leader of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party. The best way to hurt both men, analysts said, is for Lee to create a crisis with China, prompting people to opt for continuity with Lien.
But so far, it's not clear whether Lien is getting any boost. For one thing, Beijing seems to be handling the crisis calmly--as opposed to a 1996 crisis when China fired missiles across Taiwan's bow during Taiwan's first direct presidential election, an act that helped Lee significantly.
"This time Lee can't succeed like last time," said Xu Shiquan, director of Beijing's Institute of Taiwan Studies. "We know him very well."
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Even with all the various versions of "state" being bandied about in Taiwan these days, it still comes as a surprise to hear someone actually talk about statehood. As in, American statehood.
Yet David Chou comes right out and says it: Taiwan should become the 51st state of the United States.
Chou is not joking. He has a plan. It may never work, but just try telling Chou that. He has been working on it for years.
Chou set up the 51 Club in 1994 to promote his idea. He admitted 51 members. But to him it is not a gimmick. It is a cause. With all the confusing explanations that Taiwan's government puts forth about whether it is part of China or something separate, Chou's unusual proposal is refreshingly straightforward.
"If we were a state, our most serious problem -- security -- would be solved," said Chou, 49, who sounds considerably more normal than his proposal might suggest. "The current government can't solve it; neither can the opposition. But statehood can."
Taiwan has been drowning in political debate since July 9, when President Lee Teng-hui caused an uproar by saying that from now on, talks with China should be held on the basis of equal states, in a "special state-to-state relationship." Beijing immediately denounced Lee for trying to thwart China's reunification with the island, while opinion polls in Taiwan show cautious support for Lee's statement.
"Special state-to-state relations, yes, as a U.S. state," Chou said. "That's the only state we should want to be, the state of Taiwan."
Face facts, Chou says. Taiwan would not exist without the United States. Ever since 1949, when Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalists retreated to Taiwan after losing China's civil war to Mao Zedong's Communists, they have survived by American protection, American trade and the education of countless Taiwan students in American universities.
Chou argues that most people here, if given a choice, would prefer to be American.
"A lot of people in Taiwan are embarrassed to say so," Chou said, whispering conspiratorially. "The government will never say so. But it's true."
Chou seems to fancy himself a visionary. He studied law in the United States, but ended up as a businessman in the toy industry. He seems fiercely committed to the idea of American statehood, but is a bit weak on how to organize.
He needs money, he acknowledges. So in July he set up a foundation called the FormUSA Foundation -- a play on Taiwan's earlier name, Formosa. So far, it has 18 members.
"The Communist Party started with 12 [sic]," he said.
Will it take as many decades to achieve his goal as it did for Communist leaders to achieve theirs?
Unlikely, Chou said, but exactly how long depends on Beijing.
"All the PLA has to do is lob a few missiles over, and people will be swarming to us," he said, referring to the People's Liberation Army.
Chou lived and worked in New York, Pennsylvania and California over a period of 10 years, and he fell in love with what he sees as a reliable legal system and an open-minded society.
"I know a lot of Taiwanese have reservations about this," he said. "They may worry that they'll lose their culture. But I tell them, you can still eat rice; no one will force you to eat hamburgers."
On July 23, when Richard Bush, an American special envoy, came to Taiwan to meet Lee, Chou organized a tiny demonstration outside the office that represents U.S. interests here and presented a petition addressed to President Clinton and leading members of Congress. It was accepted by Susan Stahl, an American official who promised to forward it to Washington.
More mainstream Taiwan residents, in random questioning, see the idea as little more than a bad joke. The government has yet to dignify it with a comment. Chou said he thought the Taiwan media have largely ignored him because it is controlled by the local establishment.
Yet The China Times, a leading Taiwan newspaper, took him on with a July 25 editorial headlined "Who Wants a 51st State?"
"If the United States allowed far-away Taiwan to become a 51st state, a lot of small undeveloped African countries would have done it long ago," the editorial said.
One of Chou's supporters, David Shu, said that, like many young people here, he used to think that the island should declare formal independence, because it has been effectively separate from China for 50 years. But he reasoned that if independence is not feasible, what with China hovering so close by, American statehood is second-best.
When he tries to sell the idea to friends, Shu said, he compares Taiwan to a pretty young woman.
"China is like a gangster," Shu said. "The United States is like a policeman. Every time the gangster tries to take the girl in his arms, she has to call the policeman to come save her.
"Our job is to get the girl married to the policeman," he continued. "Then there is no danger, and the protection is permanent."
Chou put it another way.
//As the founder of the "51 Club" ------- Chou embodies the absurdity of the American stance on the question of China and the mad logic of empire.//
//Of Taiwan's political figures, to my knowledge Chou is the only one with the courage to say this out loud.//
//Chou is a true citizen of the new world order we are fighting for from Kosovo to Taipei, and its perfect spokesman.//
//What is so delightful about Chou is that he has ripped the mask off the formalized pretensions and airs of the Taiwanese leadership, who pay lip service to the patriotic myth of One China.//
//I am perfectly serious about the prospect of Taiwan statehood.//
//Therefore, I say, --------: let Taiwan petition Congress for admission to the Union. //
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Appendix
TAIWAN – THE FIFTY-FIRST STATE?
Justin Raimondo
https://www.antiwar.com/justin/j072701.html
At last, someone has come right out and said it: instead of going through all the trouble and expense of pretending to be a sovereign state, and employing platoons of lobbyists in Washington to keep the arms and "foreign aid" flowing, why doesn't Taiwan recognize its complete dependence on the U.S., openly acknowledge its status as an American protectorate – and apply for admission to the Union? Say what?
You may laugh, but David Chou, a Taiwanese citizen, is perfectly serious. As the founder of the "51 Club" – an organization that probably doesn't have many more members than the original 51 present at its founding – Chou embodies the absurdity of the American stance on the question of China and the mad logic of empire. Ever since Chiang Kai-chek fled the mainland and established a military dictatorship in what had been a backwater province, his Nationalist government has endured only because it has been sheltered under the protective wing of the American eagle. Of Taiwan's political figures, to my knowledge Chou is the only one with the courage to say this out loud.
Never mind all this nonsense about "redefining" Taiwan's status in terms of "state-to-state" relations with the mainland, begone with this illusion that Taiwan is a separate "nation" with its own cultural and national identity and history. "Special state-to-state relations, yes, as a U.S. state," says Chou. "That's the only state we should want to be, the state of Taiwan." Chou is a true citizen of the new world order we are fighting for from Kosovo to Taipei, and its perfect spokesman: "I know a lot of Taiwanese have reservations about this," he avers. "They may worry that they'll lose their culture. But I tell them, you can still eat rice; no one will force you to eat hamburgers." All that old-fashioned stuff about history and cultural identity boils down to a question of cuisine. In the brave new "progressive" world Bill Clinton and Tony Blair are building for us, culture, nationalism, and the very concept of national sovereignty are the artifacts of a bygone era, and hardly matter. What matters now is money – and power.
The Nationalist government would never admit it, but it has certainly been acting like a state government for the past fifty years, lobbying quite successfully for more federal funding in the guise of "foreign aid." The Nationalists had barely set up shop in Taipei before they launched a huge publicity campaign in the United States. It was the height of the Cold War and plenty of conservatives were ready to believe that if they paid the price of globalism and perpetual war they would one day live in freedom.
They never realized, of course, that this freedom was doomed by their decision – or, if they did, cynically dismissed it as part of the tragic paradox of life on this earth. In any case, they were willing to go to war to defend a place they had never seen and a cause they barely understood. The Nationalists, who lorded over the native people of Taiwan and ruthlessly suppressed all opposition, did not want to be understood – and so it was a useful alliance. The dictatorship of the Nationalists was dressed up in the glamorous figure of the mediagenic Madam Chiang, who toured the country and whipped up support for the Nationalist cause the way any American politician would naturally take to the hustings.
Some day someone will write a book-length account of how the old China Lobby infiltrated and influenced our political system and established a full-fledged American protectorate, or colony, overseas. It was an well-organized and very well funded enterprise, encouraged if not entirely created by the Taipei regime. A magazine, Plain Talk, was established – by the wealthy silk merchant Alfred Kohlberg – that specialized in the "who lost China" bout of agonizing then taking place among conservatives. (How could we have "lost" China, if it was never ours to begin with? But never mind.) Amid a spy scare in which Alger Hiss and other prominent Commies were exposed in the highest levels of the US government, and the seeming relentlessness with which the Soviet balloon was expanding almost to its full size, the Kohlberg propaganda outfit did a bang-up business. Until Nixon went to China, Kohlberg and his confreres had the field pretty much to themselves, and they made the most of it.
When it came time to recognize the inevitable, and even their Washington sponsors could no longer maintain the fiction of Taiwanese "independence," the China lobby was ready with the Taiwan Relations Act as the price of betrayal. It would be an amicable divorce, but the obligation on our part would never end: it was a de facto annexation dressed up as a bill of divorcement. What is so delightful about Chou is that he has ripped the mask off the formalized pretensions and airs of the Taiwanese leadership, who pay lip service to the patriotic myth of One China. By being more royalist than the king, by openly naming and advocating what has in fact been the program of the ruling clique in Taipei all along, he underscores the inevitable logic of Empire with every word he utters. "If we were a state, our most serious problem – security – would be solved," says Chou. "The current government can't solve it; neither can the opposition. But statehood can."
I, for one, am in favor of it. For one thing, we won't have to give them any seats in Congress – they already have more than enough. Between Ben Gilman and Jesse Helms, that alone is enough congressional firepower to shoot down any incoming political missile. The Democrats would no doubt back the idea, if not in the name of "human rights" and "inclusiveness," then because the Republicans in Congress have so alienated both Taiwanese and mainlanders in their persecution of Chinese-American scientists (such as the unfortunate Wen Ho Lee) that these voters will be driven into the waiting arms of the DNC.
Long dormant at the grassroots level, the China Lobby is trying to make a comeback, although nothing like the first time around. With the Cold War just a memory, and dreams of reviving it not quite a reality, the crusading fervor and sense of outrage is lacking. While the mighty "Committee of One Million" against the admission of "Red China" to the United Nations – engineered by the energetic ex-Communist-turned-conservative Marvin Liebman in the 1950s – was a huge political and financial success, today's China lobby is a pale shadow of its storied past. David Horowitz's outfit, the "Committee for a Non-Left Majority" (CNLM) which specializes in scare stories about Chinese "subversion," has turned out to be a non-starter. Announced as an ambitious plan to raise hundreds of thousands of dollars to promote the cause of more military spending and warmongering in the Republican party, the CNLM started out with high expectations. In preparation for the bales of cash he expected to rake in, Horowitz made sure that the online form contributors have to fill out lists the smallest contribution at $1000. But from the sad and somewhat abandoned look of the CNLM website – the only thing that has changed beyond the initial postings a month ago is the date – Horowitz's "Hate China" campaign seems to have fizzled out before it ever began. The Spark, as the CNLM calls its online newsletter, has failed to catch fire.
Faced with the illogic of their own position, which mandates war on behalf of the breakaway province of Taiwan but not in the cause of the breakaway province of Kosovo, many if not most conservatives show every sign of learning the main lesson of the post-Cold War era: they always knew Communism didn't work. Now they are learning that all form of globalism are similarly flawed.
I am perfectly serious about the prospect of Taiwan statehood. If the people of Taiwan are going to fall under the protection of US armed forces, if we are bound to them forever because of a treaty authored and signed by none yet living, even against our own strategic and economic interests, then let them help pay for it. If the United States government is going to make life and death decisions for the people of Taiwan, then let them have a voice – and a vote – in their fate. My answer to Taipei's amen-corner in the US, conservative "anti-Communists" who demand that Taiwan must be recognized as independent from China and that the US must guarantee it, is identical to the one given by the redoubtable Colonel Robert Rutherford McCormick, the "isolationist" (i.e. pro-American) publisher of the Chicago Tribune, when he took up the cudgels against those Anglophiles in America who pushed for a Trans-Atlantic pact. His editorial, entitled "States Across the Sea' [April 25, 1943], reads as if it were written yesterday:
"Certainly it is difficult to see why those who say their goal is integration of the free peoples have consistently neglected the most obvious method of achieving it, and the one that would be most readily acceptable to the American people." No need to form transnational alliances and sign endless treaties, "the method is found in the Constitution of the United States," specifically the provisions of article IV, "which are not all that onerous." It's really very simple, he explained, "all they need do is adopt written constitutions and apply for membership and all we need do is accept them as we once accepted Texas." Great Britain, he suggested, could be admitted as four states: England, Ireland, Scotland, and Wales. McCormick despised the Eastern Anglophile elite whom he blamed for dragging us into two world wars, and took great pleasure in his needling. He caused an international uproar when he wrote: "Certainly the handkissers and Tories in this country should welcome the closer relationship if only because it would strengthen their representation in Congress. They should look forward pleasurably to more intimate social and political ties with their English friends, particularly as the new relationship would be one of equals."
Therefore, I say, with the Colonel: let Taiwan petition Congress for admission to the Union. Surely they can count on their good friends Ben Gilman and Jesse Helms to push it through. But why stop with Taiwan? Kosovo, too, deserves some consideration: after all, didn't Bill Clinton go there and pledge that we would not abandon the Kosovar people? Or are we going to be guilty of the horrible sin of "discrimination"? And what about the rest of our protectorates around the globe? Israel, Egypt, Colombia, and Kuwait – are they to be left out in the cold?
Naturally this would change the political and social composition of the "American" electorate, but perhaps it will be for the better. With so many Muslims incorporated into the SuperUSA, American conservatives may live to see prayer in the public schools. (Will they change their minds when their children are asked to face Mecca?)
Certainly this multicultural stew will please the Left: not only will we have an administration that "looks like America," but an "America" that looks like the world. Indeed, America, at this rate, will become the world, with only a few "rogue" states holding out for independence. And this, as Murray Rothbard pointed out in a famous essay, is the ultimate endpoint and logical goal of the interventionists: the annexation of the entire earth!
The mad "logic" of interventionism leads us straight down the well-trod path of empire, a road littered with the bones of Romans, Englishmen, and others guilty of the same fatal hubris. They thought they could rule the world, when they could not even begin to control themselves and their own worst impulses. Will we end up on the side of the same road, a sad pile of bones weathered by wind and sun?